(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate. Undermined by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year fell 8.4 bps to 2.267% Friday); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY downside limited by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid speculation that new proposals from Greek officials expected to be presented to creditors' representatives in Brussels might be accepted. Data focus: 1230 GMT U.S. May Chicago Fed National Activity Index; 1400 GMT U.S. May existing home sales (forecast +4.2%). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 122.56-122.46 band (Friday's low-June 10 low); breach would expose downside to 121.44 (May 25 low), then 121.24 (55-day moving average), 120.61 (May 22 low), and 120.52 (100-day moving average). Resistance at 123.21 (Friday's high); breach would target 123.61 (Thursday's high), then 124.46 (Wednesday's high), 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate as markets await outcome of 1700 GMT EU emergency summit on Greece in Brussels. EUR/USD supported by hopes that the new proposals from Greek officials expected to be presented to creditors' representatives in Brussels might be accepted; euro demand on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But EUR/USD upside limited by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Data focus: 1400 GMT eurozone June flash consumer confidence indicator (forecast -5.8). Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.1405 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.1440-1.1450 band (Thursday's high-May 18 high), then 1.1466 (May 15 reaction high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high). Support at 1.1292 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1205 (Tuesday's low), then 1.1189 (June 15 low), 1.1151 (June 12 low), 1.1082 (June 8 low), 1.1061 (confluence of 55-day & 100-day moving averages), 1.1049 (June 5 low) and 1.0915 (June 2 low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate. Undermined by soft commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 0.89% at 222.12 Friday). But AUD/USD downside limited by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; although inside-day-range pattern completed Friday. Support at 0.7734 (Friday's low), then at 0.7708 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7642-0.7634 band (Wednesday's low-June 10 low), then 0.7601-0.7595 band (June 8 low-June 1 reaction low), 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.7809 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.7848 (Thursday's high), then 0.7934 (May 20 high) and 0.8010 (May 19 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias. Undermined by dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy stance; soft dairy prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; drop in New Zealand Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence index to 113.0 in 2Q from 117.4 in 1Q. Data focus: 0300 GMT New Zealand May credit card statistics. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; although inside-day-range pattern completed Friday. Support at 0.6886 (Friday's low), then at 0.6874 (Wednesday's near-five-year low); breach would expose downside to 0.6791 (July 1, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low). Resistance at 0.6938 (Friday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.6994 (Thursday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average), then 0.7010 (Wednesday's high), 0.7026 (June 12 high), 0.7198 (June 11 high) and 0.7230 (June 10 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate. Undermined by sterling sales on rebounding EUR/GBP cross as hopes rise that new proposals from Greek officials expected to be presented to creditors' representatives in Brussels might be accepted. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages advancing; but stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Resistance at 1.5895 (Friday's high), then at 1.5928 (Thursday's seven-month high); breach would target 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high), then 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high) and 1.6184 (Oct. 21 reaction high, near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of decline from July 15, 2014 high of 1.7191 to April 13 low of 1.4563). Support at 1.5833 (Friday's low), then at 1.5803 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5623 (Wednesday's low), then 1.5539 (Tuesday's low), 1.5485 (June 15 low), 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low).
USD/CHF--to trade in lower range. Undermined by franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses tempered by negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Data focus: 0700 GMT Switzerland 1Q balance of payments. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.9160 (Friday's low), then at 0.9145-0.9140 (Thursday's low-May 18 low); breach would target 0.9108 (May 15 low), then 0.9073-0.9065 band (May 14 low-May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low). Resistance 0.9251 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9327-0.9337 band (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high), then 0.9383-0.9391 band (June 15 high-June 12 high), 0.9406 (June 11 high, near 55-day moving average), 0.9429 (June 8 high), 0.9503 (June 5 high), 0.9514 (May 28 high) and 0.9532 (200-day moving average).
USD/CAD--to trade with bullish bias. Supported by surprise 0.1% drop in Canada April retail sales (versus forecast for 0.7% increase); weaker oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 84 cents at $59.61/bbl Friday). But loonie sentiment soothed by higher-than-expected 0.9% on-year rise in Canada May CPI (versus forecast +0.8%), and 2.2% on-year rise in core CPI (versus forecast +2.1%). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 1.2294 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.2333 (Wednesday's high), then 1.2345 (Tuesday's high), 1.2359 (June 15 high), 1.2441 (June 9 high), 1.2472 (June 8 high) and 1.2562-1.2569 band (June 5 high-April 15 high). Support at 1.2210 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2124 (Thursday's low), then 1.1997 (May 18 low) and 1.1943 (200-day moving average).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate. Supported by hopes that new proposals from Greek officials expected to be presented to creditors' representatives in Brussels might be accepted; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY upside limited by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics bearish; but five-day moving average meandering sideways. Support at 138.94 (Friday's low); breach would target 138.74 (Wednesday's low), then 138.27 (Tuesday's low), 138.11 (June 15 low), 138.00 (June 12 low), 137.28 (200-day moving average), 136.11 (June 2 low) and 135.14 (June 1 low). Resistance at 140.01 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 140.67 (Thursday's high), then 141.02-141.06 (June 9 high-June 4 high), 141.72 (Jan. 8 high) and 144.13 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 149.72-126.04 Dec. 8-April 14 decline).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate as markets await outcome of 1700 GMT EU emergency summit on Greece in Brussels. EUR/GBP supported by hopes that the new proposals from Greek officials expected to be presented to creditors' representatives in Brussels might be accepted. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Resistance at 0.7172 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.7200 (Thursday's high), then 0.7213 (Wednesday's high), 0.7250 (Tuesday's high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high). Support at 0.7118 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.7090 (May 28 low), then 0.7051 (May 27 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low), 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line), 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 21, 2015 19:08 ET (23:08 GMT)
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0 Response to "Major FX Moslty Consolidating as EU Summit on Greece Eyed -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.