USD Biased Up VS Most Major Currencies This Week -- Charting Forex

   By Jerry Tan

        The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:

        USD/JPY

        1st support - 121.56 (minor)

        1st resistance - 124.46 (minor)

        2nd support - 120.80 (minor)

        2nd resistance - 124.74 (minor)

        USD/JPY (last 123.11) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below the 124.38-124.46 band, marked by Wednesday's high and the June 17 high. Support may be encountered at the 55-day moving average, now at 121.56. A breach would target the 100-day moving average, now at 120.80, and then the May 22 low of 120.61. An extension of the fall would target the May 18 low of 119.22, and then the May 14 reaction low of 118.86. But a rise above 124.46 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting the June 9 high of 124.74; and then the 125.86-125.91 band, defined by the June 5 high and the June 30, 2002 high. The medium-term USD/JPY outlook is mixed as the five-week moving average is above the 15-week moving average and advancing, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is falling from overbought levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below 125.86. A rise above 125.86 would turn the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to the psychological 130.00 line; and then to the Jan. 31, 2002 swing high of 135.15.

        EUR/USD

        1st support - 1.0887 (minor)

        1st resistance - 1.1235 (minor)

        2nd support - 1.1819 (moderate)

        2nd resistance - 1.1410 (minor)

        EUR/USD (last 1.1012) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Wednesday's high of 1.1235. The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and declining. Support is at the June 1 low of 1.0887. A breach would target the May 27 reaction low of 1.0819, and then the April 21 reaction low of 1.0660. An extension of the fall would target the April 13 reaction low of 1.0519. But a rise above 1.1235 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting the June 22 high of 1.1410, and then the June 18 reaction high of 1.1440. An extension of the rise would target the May 15 reaction high of 1.1468, and then the Feb. 3 reaction high of 1.1534, followed by the Jan. 21 reaction high of 1.1674. The positive medium-term EUR/USD outlook is tempered as the weekly slow stochastic measure has turned bearish near overbought levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays above the May 27 reaction low of 1.0819. A drop below 1.0819 would turn the medium-term outlook negative, exposing the downside to the 12-year low of 1.0457 hit March 16, and then to the psychological 1.0000 line; followed by the Sept. 17, 2002 reaction low of 0.9601.

        AUD/USD

        1st support - 0.7550 (minor)

        1st resistance - 0.7752 (minor)

        2nd support - 0.7530 (moderate)

        2nd resistance - 0.7771 (minor)

        AUD/USD (last 0.7669) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Thursday's high of 0.7752. The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five-day moving average is below the 15-day moving average and declining. Support is at the April 13 reaction low of 0.7550. A breach would target 0.7530--the near-six-year low hit April 2; and then the May 18, 2009 low of 0.7449. An extension of the fall would target the May 1, 2009 low of 0.7240, and then the psychological 0.7000 line. But a rise above 0.7752 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting Wednesday's high of 0.7771, and then the June 22 high of 0.7796. An extension of the rise would target the June 18 reaction high of 0.7848, and then the May 22 high of 0.7931, followed by the May 19 high of 0.8010. The medium-term AUD/USD outlook is consolidative as long as the currency pair stays above 0.7530. The weekly chart is mixed as the five-week moving average is below the 15-week moving average and declining, but the weekly MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bullish. A drop below 0.7530 would tilt the medium-term outlook negative, exposing the downside to the psychological 0.7000 line; and then to the Feb. 2, 2009 reaction low of 0.6245 in the weeks ahead.

        NZD/USD

        1st support - 0.6559 (moderate)

        1st resistance - 0.6924 (minor)

        2nd support - 0.6192 (minor)

        2nd resistance - 0.7010 (minor)

        NZD/USD (last 0.6852) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Thursday's reaction high of 0.6924. The daily chart is negative-biased as the five- and 15-day moving averages are declining. Support is at the May 25, 2010 reaction low of 0.6559. A breach would expose the downside to the July 13, 2009 low of 0.6192; and then to the June 8, 2009 low of 0.6148. But a rise above 0.6924 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting the June 17 high of 0.7010, and then the June 10 reaction high of 0.7230. An extension of the rise would target the May 28 high of 0.7271, and then the May 26 high of 0.7321, followed by the May 22 reaction high of 0.7394. The medium-term NZD/USD outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. The currency pair may fall to the May 25, 2010 reaction low of 0.6559; a breach would open the way down to the psychological 0.6000 line in the weeks ahead.

        GBP/USD

        1st support - 1.5623 (minor)

        1st resistance - 1.5770 (minor)

        2nd support - 1.5539 (minor)

        2nd resistance - 1.5802 (minor)

        GBP/USD (last 1.5712) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Thursday's high of 1.5770. The slow stochastic measure is falling from overbought levels, while a bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit this morning. Support is at the June 17 low of 1.5623. A breach would target the June 16 low of 1.5539, and then the June 15 low of 1.5485. An extension of the fall would target the 200-day moving average, now at 1.5462; and then the 55-day moving average, now at 1.5411. But a rise above 1.5770 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting Wednesday's high of 1.5802, and then the 1.5909-1.5928 band, marked by the June 22 high and the June 18 high. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 11 high of 1.5944, and then the Nov. 5 high of 1.6021; followed by the Oct. 21 reaction high 1.6184. The medium-term GBP/USD outlook is positive as the five- and 15-week moving averages are advancing. The currency pair may advance to 1.6187--the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the July 15, 2014 high of 1.7191 to the April 13 low of 1.4563. A rise above 1.6187 would open the way up to the Sept. 19 reaction high of 1.6524 in the weeks ahead.

        USD/CHF

        1st support - 0.9294 (minor)

        1st resistance - 0.9503 (minor)

        2nd support - 0.9278 (minor)

        2nd resistance - 0.9531 (minor)

        USD/CHF (last 0.9382) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the currency pair stays above Friday's low of 0.9294. The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bullish, while the five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance is at the June 5 high of 0.9503. A breach would target the 200-day moving average, now at 0.9531, and then the May 27 reaction high of 0.9545. An extension of the rise would target the April 28 high of 0.9598, and then the April 23 reaction high of 0.9718. But a drop below 0.9294 would temper the positive near-term outlook, targeting Wednesday's low of 0.9278, and then the 0.9152-0.9145 band, marked by the June 22 low and the June 18 low. An extension of the fall would target the 0.9073-0.9065 band, defined by the May 14 low and the May 7 low which is near the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to the March 12 high of 1.0128. The negative medium-term USD/CHF outlook is tempered as the weekly slow stochastic measure has turned bullish near oversold levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the May 27 reaction high of 0.9545. A rise above 0.9545 would turn the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to the April 13 reaction high of 0.9863; and then to the March 12 swing high of 1.0128.

        USD/CAD

        1st support - 1.2273 (minor)

        1st resistance - 1.2422 (minor)

        2nd support - 1.2215 (minor)

        2nd resistance - 1.2441 (minor)

        USD/CAD (last 1.2341) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the currency pair stays above Wednesday's low of 1.2273. The daily slow stochastic indicator is bullish, while the five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance is at Wednesday's high of 1.2422. A breach would target the June 9 high of 1.2441, and then the June 1 reaction high of 1.2562. An extension of the rise would target the April 10 reaction high of 1.2667, and then the March 31 reaction high of 1.2783. But a drop below 1.2273 would temper the positive near-term outlook, targeting the June 22 low of 1.2215, and then the June 18 reaction low of 1.2124. An extension of the fall would target the 200-day moving average, now at 1.1983, and then the May 14 reaction low of 1.1916. The medium-term USD/CAD outlook is mixed as the weekly MACD indicator is bearish, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is neutral. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the June 1 reaction high of 1.2562. A breach of the 1.2562 resistance would tilt the medium-term outlook positive, targeting the March 18 swing high of 1.2834; and then the March 9, 2009 swing high of 1.3063; followed by the May 18, 2004 reaction high of 1.4001.

        Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com

        (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

        June 28, 2015 22:50 ET (02:50 GMT)

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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires
        June 28, 2015 22:50 ET (02:50 GMT)

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