The following are projected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:
Immediate Range Larger Range
USD/JPY 123.55-124.18 122.46-124.46
EUR/USD 1.1135-1.1283 1.1082-1.1347
AUD/USD 0.7677-0.7749 0.7634-0.7796
NZD/USD 0.6813-0.6874 0.6791-0.6938
GBP/USD 1.5704-1.5812 1.5623-1.5831
USD/CHF 0.9249-0.9391 0.9207-0.9406
USD/CAD 1.2304-1.2382 1.2210-1.2441
EUR/JPY 138.11-139.52 138.00-140.01
EUR/GBP 0.7077-0.7179 0.7051-0.7213
(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.39 versus 94.32 early Tuesday) after stronger-than-expected 2.2% increase in U.S. new home sales to seven-year high of 546,000 in May (versus forecast +1.0% to 522,000). USD/JPY also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year rose 5.2 bps to 2.414% Tuesday); demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid diminished risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 4.95% to 12.11; S&P 500 closed up 0.06% at 2,124.2 overnight) on the strong U.S. housing data and on continued optimism that Greece was nearing a bailout deal with its creditors. But USD sentiment dented by bigger-than-expected 1.8% on-month drop in U.S. May durable goods orders (versus forecast -1.0%), weaker-than-expected Markit U.S. June flash manufacturing PMI of 53.4 (versus forecast 54.0). USD/JPY gains also tempered by Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan May services PPI; 2350 GMT Japan May BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes; 1230 GMT 3rd estimate U.S. 1Q GDP (forecast -0.2%). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 124.18 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 124.46 (June 17 high), then 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high). Support at 123.35 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 122.56-122.46 band (Monday's low-June 10 low), then 121.44 (May 25 low, near 55-day moving average) and 120.61 (May 22 low, near 100-day moving average).
EUR/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; increase in short-euro hedges as European stocks rise (Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 1.16% at 398.83) amid optimism that Greece was nearing a bailout deal with its creditors; euro-funded carry trades amid receding risk aversion; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro sales on cross trades versus major currencies. But euro sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected Markit Germany June flash manufacturing PMI of 51.9 (versus forecast 51.3); stronger-than-expected Markit eurozone June flash manufacturing PMI of 52.5 (versus forecast 52.2) and composite PMI of 54.1 (versus forecast 53.5). Data focus: 0800 GMT Germany June Ifo business climate index (forecast 108.0). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics turned bearish; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Tuesday. Support at 1.1135 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1082 (June 8 low, near 55-day moving average), then 1.1057 (100-day moving averages, 1.1049 (June 5 low) and 1.0915 (June 2 low). Resistance at 1.1283 (hourly chart), then at 1.1347 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1410 (Monday's high), then 1.1440-1.1450 band (Thursday's high-May 18 high), 1.1466 (May 15 reaction high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
AUD/USD--to trade in higher range. Supported by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/JPY cross amid subdued risk aversion; Aussie demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But AUD/USD gains tempered by bullish dollar sentiment; soft iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron slipped $0.10 Tuesday to one-month low $60.50/ton). Daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish, but MACD in bullish mode, bullish hammer candlestick pattern completed Tuesday. Resistance at 0.7749 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7796 (Monday's high), then 0.7809 (Friday's high), 0.7848 (Thursday's high), 0.7934 (May 20 high) and 0.8010 (May 19 high). Support at 0.7677 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7642-0.7634 band (June 17 low-June 10 low), then 0.7601-0.7595 band (June 8 low-June 1 reaction low), 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-five-year low 0.6813 Tuesday if 0.6874 cap holds. NZD/USD undermined by bullish dollar sentiment; dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy stance; soft dairy prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses tempered by Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid receding risk aversion; Kiwi demand on soft EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD crosses, and on buoyant NZD/CHF cross. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.6813 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.6791 (July 1, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low). Resistance at 0.6874 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.6929-0.6938 band (Monday's high-Friday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average), then 0.6994 (Thursday's high), 0.7010 (June 17 high), 0.7026 (June 12 high), 0.7198 (June 11 high) and 0.7230 (June 10 high).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Sterling sentiment dented by surprise drop in U.K. CBI industrial order book balance to -7 in June from -5 in May (versus forecast for rise to +1). GBP/USD also weighed by bullish dollar sentiment; sterling sales on soft GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD crosses. But GBP/USD losses tempered by diminished risk aversion; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross and on buoyant GBP/CHF cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. May BBA mortgage lending. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.5704 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5623 (June 17 low), then 1.5539 (June 16 low), 1.5485 (June 15 low), 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low). Resistance at 1.5812 (hourly chart), then at 1.5831 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5909 (Monday's high), then 1.5928 (Thursday's high), 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high), 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high) and 1.6184 (Oct. 21 reaction high, near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of decline from July 15, 2014 high of 1.7191 to April 13 low of 1.4563).
USD/CHF--to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by bullish dollar sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; franc sales on buoyant AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, CAD/CHF, GBP/CHF crosses, and on soft CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF gains tempered by franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. Data focus: 0600 GMT Switzerland May UBS consumption indicator. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics turned bullish; bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Tuesday. Resistance 0.9386-0.9391 (Tuesday's high-June 12 high, near 55-day moving average); breach would target 0.9406 (June 11 high), then 0.9429 (June 8 high), 0.9503 (June 5 high), 0.9514 (May 28 high) and 0.9531 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.9249 (hourly chart), then at 0.9207 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9152-0.9145 band (Monday's low-Thursday's low), then 0.9108 (May 15 low), 0.9073-0.9065 band (May 14 low-May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low).
USD/CAD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up 63 cents at $61.01/bbl Tuesday); loonie demand on buoyant CAD/JPY cross amid diminished risk aversion; loonie demand on soft EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD crosses, and on buoyant CAD/CHF cross. But USD/CAD losses tempered by bullish dollar sentiment; loonie sales on buoyant AUD/CAD cross. Data focus: 1430 GMT EIA weekly petroleum status report. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish; but MACD in bearish mode, bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern completed Tuesday. Support at 1.2304 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2215-1.2210 (Monday's low-Friday's low), then 1.2124 (Thursday's low), 1.1997 (May 18 low) and 1.1963 (200-day moving average). Resistance at 1.2382 (Tuesday's high, near 100-day moving average); breach would expose upside to 1.2441 (June 9 high), then 1.2472 (June 8 high) and 1.2562-1.2569 band (June 5 high-April 15 high).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weak EUR/USD undertone; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by diminished risk aversion; demand from Japan importers. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average. Support at 138.21-138.11 band (Tuesday's low-June 15 low); breach would target 138.00 (June 12 low), then 137.27 (200-day moving average), 136.11 (June 2 low) and 135.14 (June 1 low). Resistance at 139.52 (hourly chart), then at 140.01 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 140.63-140.67 (Monday's high-Thursday's high), then 141.02-141.06 (June 9 high-June 4 high), 141.72 (Jan. 8 high) and 144.13 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 149.72-126.04 Dec. 8-April 14 decline).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-one-month low 0.7077 Tuesday. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7077 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7051 (May 27 low), then 0.7031 (March 12 low), 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line), 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7179 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7210-0.7213 (Monday's high-June 17 high), then 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 23, 2015 19:44 ET (23:44 GMT)
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 23, 2015 19:44 ET (23:44 GMT)
#FX
#Forex
#SaleForex
#USD_Bullish
#OnHousing
#Commodity_FX
#BuoyantCrosses
#AsiaDailyForexOutlook
0 Response to "USD Bullish On Housing; Commodity FX Buoyant on Crosses -- ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK"
Thanks for give comment.