(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.22 versus 94.95 early Wednesday) after the Federal Reserve cut its economic growth outlook and signaled a slow approach to raising interest rates. USD/JPY also weighed by lower shorter-dated U.S. Treasury yields (2-year fell 3.7 bps to 0.653% Wednesday); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; reduced safe-haven appeal of yen as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 2.09% to 14.5; S&P 500 closed up 0.2% at 2,100.44 overnight) after dovish Fed statement. Data focus: 0130 GMT China May house price index; 1230 GMT U.S. May CPI (forecast +0.5% on-month), core CPI (forecast +0.2% on-month); 1230 GMT U.S. jobless claims in week ended June 13 (forecast 276,000); 1400 GMT Conference Board U.S. May leading indicators (forecast +0.3%); 1400 GMT U.S. June Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (forecast 8.0). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish. Support at 123.21 (Wednesday's low), then at 123.10 (Monday's low); breach would target 122.63 (June 11 low), then 122.46 (June 10 low), 121.44 (May 25 low), 121.12 (55-day moving average), 120.61 (May 22 low), and 120.42 (100-day moving average). Resistance at 123.95 (hourly chart), then at 124.46 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 124.63 (June 10 high), then 124.74 (June 9 high), 125.68 (June 8 high) and 125.86-125.91 (June 5 high-June 30, 2002 high).
EUR/USD--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by negative dollar sentiment; euro demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment. But EUR/USD gains tempered by worries that Greece might default on its debts and exit the eurozone; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics reverting to bullish mode at overbought levels. Resistance at 1.1358 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.1387 (June 10 high), then 1.1450 (May 18 high), 1.1466 (May 15 reaction high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high). Support at 1.1267 (hourly chart), then at 1.1206-1.1205 (Wednesday's low-Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.1189 (Monday's low), then 1.1151 (Friday's low), 1.1082 (June 8 low), 1.1061 (100-day moving average), 1.1049 (June 5 low, near 55-day moving average) and 1.0915 (June 2 low).
AUD/USD--to range-trade. Supported by negative dollar sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/JPY cross amid improved risk appetite; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD upside limited by soft iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $1.20 to $60.90/ton Wednesday); contagion from weak Kiwi. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia May official reserve assets. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish. Resistance at 0.7769-0.7779 band (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7792 (June 11 high), then 0.7818 (June 3 high), 0.7839 (May 26 high), 0.7934 (May 20 high) and 0.8010 (May 19 high). Support at 0.7691 (hourly chart), then at 0.7642-0.7634 band (Wednesday's low-June 10 low); breach would target 0.7601-0.7595 band (June 8 low-June 1 reaction low), then 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-five-year low 0.6874 Wednesday. Kiwi sentiment hurt by weaker-than-expected New Zealand 1Q GDP growth of +0.2% on-quarter (versus forecast +0.6%). NZD/USD also weighed by dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy stance; soft dairy prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses tempered by negative dollar sentiment; Kiwi demand on NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.6874 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6791 (July 1, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7010 (Wednesday's high), then at 0.7026 (Friday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average); breach would expose upside to 0.7198 (June 11 high), then 0.7230 (June 10 high), 0.7271 (May 28 high), 0.7321 (May 26 high), 0.7394 (May 22 high) and 0.7443 (May 19 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting seven-month high 1.5847 Wednesday. Sterling sentiment boosted by larger-than-expected 2.7% on-year rise in U.K. average weekly earnings excluding bonuses in the three months to April (versus forecast +2.1%), while the June Bank of England MPC meeting minutes had a hawkish tint as officials concluded wages in the U.K. may be rising at a faster pace than official figures suggest, and annual inflation is expected to accelerate "notably" later this year. GBP/USD also supported by negative dollar sentiment; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross; sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid diminished risk aversion. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. May retail sales (forecast +0.2% on-month, +4.7% on-year). Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.5847 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.5877 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of decline from July 15, 2014 high of 1.7191 to April 13 low of 1.4563), then 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high), 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high) and 1.6184 (Oct. 21 reaction high, near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). Support at 1.5749 (hourly chart), then at 1.5623 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.5539 (Tuesday's low), then 1.5485 (Monday's low), 1.5465 (Friday's low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting one-month low 0.9194 Wednesday as markets await 0730 GMT Swiss National Bank monetary policy decision: SNB likely to keep its deposit rate on hold, reiterate the franc remains overvalued and re-emphasize its readiness to intervene. USD/CHF weighed by negative dollar sentiment; franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross and on soft EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses tempered by negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Other data: 0600 GMT Switzerland May trade balance. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish; stochastics reverting to bearish mode at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.9194 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9140 (May 18 low), then 0.9108 (May 15 low), 0.9073-0.9065 band (May 14 low-May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low). Resistance 0.9311 (hourly chart), then at 0.9327-0.9337 band (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.9383-0.9391 band (Monday's high-Friday's high), then 0.9406 (June 11 high), 0.9429 (June 8 high, near 55-day moving average), 0.9503 (June 5 high), 0.9514 (May 28 high), 0.9533 (200-day moving average) and 0.9545 (May 27 reaction high).
USD/CAD--to trade in lower range. Loonie sentiment boosted by larger-than-expected 1.9% on-month increase in Canada April wholesale trade (versus forecast +0.3%). USD/CAD also weighed by negative dollar sentiment; loonie demand on buoyant CAD/JPY cross amid improved risk tolerance. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 1.2217 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 1.2199 (June 10 low), then 1.2165 (May 20 low), 1.2126 (May 19 low) and 1.1997 (May 18 low). Resistance at 1.2323-1.2333 band (hourly chart-Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.2345 (Tuesday's high), then 1.2359 (Monday's high), 1.2441 (June 9 high), 1.2472 (June 8 high) and 1.2562-1.2569 band (June 5 high-April 15 high).
EUR/JPY--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by positive risk sentiment; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by fears that Greece might default on its debts and exit the eurozone; Japan exporter sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turning bullish. Resistance at 140.66 (June 10 high); breach would target 141.02-141.06 (June 9 high-June 4 high), then 141.72 (Jan. 8 high) and 144.13 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 149.72-126.04 Dec. 8-April 14 decline). Support at 139.47 (hourly chart), then at 138.74 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 138.27 (Tuesday's low), then 138.11 (Monday's low), 138.00 (Friday's low), 137.28 (200-day moving average), 136.11 (June 2 low) and 135.14 (June 1 low).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 17, 2015 19:34 ET (23:34 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Cross undermined by bullish sterling sentiment; worries over possible Greece default and exit from the eurozone. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7139-0.7131 band (Wednesday's low-May 29 low); breach would target 0.7090 (May 28 low), then 0.7051 (May 27 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low), 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line), 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7213 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7250 (Tuesday's high), then 0.7266 (Friday's high), 0.7316 (June 11 high), 0.7364 (June 10 high) and 0.7388-0.7394 band (June 9 high-May 8 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 17, 2015 19:34 ET (23:34 GMT)
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