(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--mild upside bias. USD/CNY exhibits a mild bullish bias on the daily chart after it ended Thursday inside the Bollinger uptrend channel - which supports the pair at 6.2089 - suggesting that the yuan could weaken in the days ahead. But the pair is also inside the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone, which indicates a neutral tone for the dollar, hence USD/CNY may not be able to sustain a rally. All eyes are still on China's recently choppy stock market which veered into the red again Thursday after a two-day relief rally. The Shanghai Composite Index is now back inside its Bollinger downtrend channel, which could encourage bearish bets on stocks. Excessive weakness in equities could trigger bearish speculative bets on the yuan. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2089 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2049 (20-day Bollinger mid support and base of daily Ichimoku Cloud), before 6.2009 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2129 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2226 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone).
USD/TWD--consolidation higher. USD/TWD is on the verge of breaking out of the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone - which would be confirmed on a Friday closing above 31.105. This mildly bullish signal could prompt further short-covering of USD/TWD positions. Over the last couple of days, speculative demand for the greenback has risen, as seen by the shrinking price difference between the USD/TWD spot contract and the benchmark 1-month nondeliverable forward contract. The price gap has closed to a discount of 0.030 from around 0.080 a few days ago. The safe haven U.S. dollar has been buoyant as general risk appetite is weak due to further delays expected in Greece debt negotiations; a deal between Greece and its creditors seems unlikely before the weekend. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 30.940 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 30.800 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.080 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 31.105 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), before 31.230 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/KRW--possible uptrend. USD/KRW may soon trigger a bullish chart signal - contingent on a Friday close above 1,117 - that might cue more weakness for the won as the dollar rises a fourth day. Most USD/Asia pairs have been climbing this week on recurring fears of Greece's inability to unlock much-needed bailout funds; talks on Thursday ended with no conclusion again, but there are hopes for an agreement to be reached over the weekend. The South Korea won has weakened slightly despite Thursday's announcement of a $14 billion economic stimulus package by the government aimed at countering the negative economic impact of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak, as well as to create more jobs. Justifying its actions, the government sharply lowered its 2015 growth forecast to 3.1% from its December estimate of 3.8%. The consumer inflation forecast was also dropped to 0.7% from 2.0% previously. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,110 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,105 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1,102 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 1,112 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 1,117 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,120 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--consolidation. USD/SGD may gravitate higher toward 1.3507 where the entrance of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel awaits. The U.S. dollar has begun trading in Asia with a firm tone due to increasing worries that Greece may not be able to close the deal with its creditors for the release of financial bailout funds. The June 30 debt repayment deadline to the IMF is looming closer, increasing the likelihood of a Greek debt default and a potential Greek exit from the eurozone. Overnight U.S. economic data supported the view that September might be a good time for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, thus adding to the fundamental argument for a stronger U.S. dollar. Consumer spending rose significantly, while weekly jobless claims were better than expected. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3400 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3382 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1.3309 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone and base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1.3441 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 1.3450 (psychological resistance), before 1.3500 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--possible uptrend. USD/MYR is probing the entrance of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel again as the dollar rises for a fourth day in a row. If USD/MYR ends the day above 3.7600 it would be inside the uptrend channel - which could encourage more bullish bets on the dollar in the near term. On Thursday, the ringgit fell to a nearly 10-year low versus the U.S. dollar but suspected intervention by the Malaysia central bank halted its decline. The ringgit has been falling alongside its peers but may be under more pressure due to domestic government corruption allegations - which have stirred political instability and thereby dented foreign investor confidence. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.7600 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.7500 (psychological support), before 3.7340 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 3.7800 (psychological resistance), then at 3.7860 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.8000 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/THB--possible uptrend. USD/THB still lingers at the 32.77 entrance of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel, lacking a stronger catalyst for a push higher. The pair has been bobbing in a narrow range this week but is showing signs of mild bullishness with four consecutively higher intraday troughs. If USD/THB confirms entry into the Bollinger uptrend channel it could be on its way to the 34.00 round-figure trading barrier. Mild risk aversion due to Greece's repeated failure to win approval from creditors for the release of bailout funds, and improved U.S. economic data which increases the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate hike, is propping up the U.S. dollar. Thailand publishes its May trade data at 0400 GMT; expectations are dim as recent evidence has shown that the economy is struggling. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 33.77 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 33.69 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 33.62 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 33.84 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 34.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/PHP--uptrend. USD/PHP could turn bullish if the pair ends Friday above 45.16 and thus inside the Bollinger uptrend channel. This could motivate bullish-USD bets that would diminish the peso's value in the near term. The peso was mostly unchanged after the Philippine central bank on Thursday kept monetary policy unchanged as expected. Economic growth has been steady while inflation has been low - two factors that validate keeping interest rates steady. But the possibility of a U.S. interest rate increase may drive USD/PHP higher; overnight U.S. economic data supported the Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish view on rates, making a September U.S. rate rise seem more possible. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 44.95 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 44.80 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is likely at 45.16 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.20 (psychological resistance), before 45.37 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--possible uptrend. USD/IDR may rise for a third day on upbeat U.S. economic data released overnight which increases the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate hike in September. If USD/IDR ends Friday above 13,340 it would be inside the daily Bollinger uptrend channel and also above the long-term bullish trendline projected from mid-April, making it more likely that the rupiah will weaken versus the U.S. dollar in the days ahead. Ongoing uncertainty over Greece debt negotiations is another factor supporting the U.S. dollar in emerging market currencies. The latest Greek budget reforms proposal has yet again been rejected by creditors, bringing closer the possibility of a Greek debt default on June 30. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,300 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 13,250 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 13,200 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,340 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel and April trendline), then at 13,390 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,400 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2015 21:10 ET (01:10 GMT)
USD/INR--mild bearish bias. India's rupee has been resilient to the broader rise of the U.S. dollar in Asia, keeping USD/INR well-capped. The USD/INR pair has failed to rally over the past week - despite most of its peers in Asia rallying on U.S. Treasury yields and eurozone concerns - and has consistently closed within the Bollinger downtrend channel that now caps at 63.55. But this bearish signal has been slightly mitigated by the Ichimoku Cloud support zone which spans 63.15-63.62 - if the pair drops out of this range, more rupee strength against the U.S. dollar in the near term would be likely. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.33 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.15 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone), before 63.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.55 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.62 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone), before 63.78 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2015 21:10 ET (01:10 GMT)
#FX
#Forex
#SaleForex
#USD_Asia
#MostlyHigher
#Upbeat_US_Data
#AsiaDailyForexOutlook
0 Response to "USD/Asia Mostly Higher on Upbeat U.S. Data -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.