(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate after hitting six-day low 122.47 Thursday as markets await Bank of Japan monetary policy decision. USD/JPY underpinned by improved USD sentiment as fewer-than-expected 267,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended June 13 (versus forecast 276,000), stronger-than-expected rise in Philadelphia Fed general business activity index to 15.2 in June from May's 6.7 (versus forecast 8.0), larger-than-expected 0.7% rise in U.S. Conference Board May leading index (versus forecast +0.3%) offsets lower-than-expected U.S. May CPI of +0.4% on-month (versus forecast +0.5%) and core CPI of +0.1% on-month (versus forecast +0.2%). USD/JPY also supported demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid positive global risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 9.03% to 13.19; S&P 500 closed up 0.99% at 2,121.24 overnight). But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Other data: 0430 GMT Japan April all industry index. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish. Resistance at 123.61 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 124.46 (Wednesday's high), then 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high), 125.68 (June 8 high) and 125.86-125.91 (June 5 high-June 30, 2002 high). Support at 122.47-122.46 (Thursday's low-June 10 low); breach would expose downside to 121.44 (May 25 low), then 121.19 (55-day moving average), 120.61 (May 22 low), and 120.47 (100-day moving average).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting one-month high 1.1440 Thursday. Undermined by improved USD sentiment; continued worries that Greece might default on its debts and exit the eurozone as a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Luxembourg on Thursday to discuss the Greek crisis had failed to reach a deal; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. But EUR/USD losses tempered by positive investor risk sentiment; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany May PPI; 0800 GMT eurozone April balance of payments. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels. Support at 1.1330 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1205 (Tuesday's low), then 1.1189 (Monday's low), 1.1151 (June 12 low), 1.1082 (June 8 low), 1.1061 (confluence of 55-day & 100-day moving averages), 1.1049 (June 5 low) and 1.0915 (June 2 low). Resistance at 1.1440-1.1450 band (Thursday's high-May 18 high); breach would target 1.1466 (May 15 reaction high), then 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-one-month high 0.7848 Thursday. Supported by positive investor risk sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD gains tempered by improved USD sentiment; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 0.7848 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7934 (May 20 high), then 0.8010 (May 19 high). Support at 0.7708 (Thursday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 0.7642-0.7634 band (Wednesday's low-June 10 low), then 0.7601-0.7595 band (June 8 low-June 1 reaction low), 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate. Undermined by weaker-than-expected New Zealand 1Q GDP growth data; dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy stance; improved USD sentiment; soft dairy prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD downside limited by positive investor risk sentiment; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD bearish; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.6879-0.6874 (Thursday's low- Wednesday's near-five-year low); breach would expose downside to 0.6791 (July 1, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low). Resistance at 0.6994 (Thursday's high), then at 0.7010 (Wednesday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average); breach would target 0.7026 (June 12 high), then 0.7198 (June 11 high), 0.7230 (June 10 high), 0.7271 (May 28 high) and 0.7321 (May 26 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate after hitting seven-month high 1.5928 Thursday. Sterling sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected 4.6% on-year increase in U.K. May retail sales (versus forecast +4.7%). GBP/USD also weighed by improved USD sentiment; profit-taking on long-GBP positions ahead of weekend. But GBP/USD downside limited by positive investor risk sentiment; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. May public sector net borrowing. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Support at 1.5803 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5623 (Wednesday's low), then 1.5539 (Tuesday's low), 1.5485 (Monday's low), 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low). Resistance at 1.5928 (Thursday's high); breach would target 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high), then 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high) and 1.6184 (Oct. 21 reaction high, near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of decline from July 15, 2014 high of 1.7191 to April 13 low of 1.4563).
USD/CHF--to consolidate after hitting one-month low 0.9145 Thursday. Swiss National Bank on Thursday maintained its deposit rate at -0.75% and reiterated it was prepared to take further measures to blunt the strength of the Swiss franc, which it said remains "significantly" overvalued. USD/CHF supported by improved USD sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF upside limited by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Resistance 0.9246 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9327-0.9337 band (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high), then 0.9383-0.9391 band (Monday's high-June 12 high), 0.9406 (June 11 high, near 55-day moving average), 0.9429 (June 8 high), 0.9503 (June 5 high), 0.9514 (May 28 high) and 0.9532 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.9145-0.9140 (Thursday's low-May 18 low); breach would target 0.9108 (May 15 low), then 0.9073-0.9065 band (May 14 low-May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low).
USD/CAD--to trade in higher range after hitting one-month low 1.2124 Thursday. Supported by improved USD sentiment. But USD/CAD gains tempered by positive investor risk sentiment; firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up 53 cents at $60.45/bbl Thursday); positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada April retail sales; 1230 GMT Canada May CPI (forecast +0.8% on-year), core CPI (forecast +2.1% on-year). Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but bullish hammer candlestick pattern completed Thursday. Resistance at 1.2250 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2333 (Wednesday's high), then 1.2345 (Tuesday's high), 1.2359 (Monday's high), 1.2441 (June 9 high), 1.2472 (June 8 high) and 1.2562-1.2569 band (June 5 high-April 15 high). Support at 1.2124 (Thursday's low); breach would reinstate negative near-term view, exposing downside to 1.1997 (May 18 low), then 1.1943 (200-day moving average).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by fears that Greece might default on its debts and exit the eurozone; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid positive risk sentiment; demand from Japan importers; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish; but MACD bearish, bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern completed Thursday. Support at 139.49 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 138.74 (Wednesday's low), then 138.27 (Tuesday's low), 138.11 (Monday's low), 138.00 (June 12 low), 137.28 (200-day moving average), 136.11 (June 2 low) and 135.14 (June 1 low). Resistance at 140.67 (Thursday's high); breach would target 141.02-141.06 (June 9 high-June 4 high), then 141.72 (Jan. 8 high) and 144.13 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 149.72-126.04 Dec. 8-April 14 decline).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 18, 2015 19:51 ET (23:51 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to trade with bearish bias. Cross undermined by worries over possible Greece default and exit from the eurozone. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; although inside-day-range pattern completed Thursday. Support at 0.7147 (Thursday's low), then at 0.7139-0.7131 band (Wednesday's low-May 29 low); breach would target 0.7090 (May 28 low), then 0.7051 (May 27 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low), 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line), 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7200 (Thursday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7213 (Wednesday's high), then 0.7250 (Tuesday's high), 0.7266 (June 12 high), 0.7316 (June 11 high), 0.7364 (June 10 high) and 0.7388-0.7394 band (June 9 high-May 8 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 18, 2015 19:51 ET (23:51 GMT)
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