Asia Roundup: Yen Trading Towards Session High, Dollar Retreats on Weak Housing Data-

 July 27th, 2015

27 July 2015, 09:25
Market Roundup
  • CFTC IMM CTA data - Specs boost USD longs to highest since June 9.
  • BOJ Deputy Gov Nakaso - Inflation around zero now, to pick up pace post-summer, to meet 2% target @H1 FY'16, export slowdown temporary, eyeing both up-down risks to scenario, BoJ to adjust policy as needed, effect of Fed rate hikes/China growth to be eyed closely.
  • Japan June corporate service price index unchanged m/m, +0.4% y/y, ex-tax rise same.
  • Tokyo office rents crawl to four-year high, new units on horizon.
  • Mitsubishi Motors to transfer some of US output to Japan.
  • BOE Chief Econ Haldane - No need for rush to raise rates.
  • Debt conundrum to keep Greek banks in months-long freeze.
Economic Data Ahead
  • (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden June household lending; last +6.4% y/y.
  • (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Germany July IFO business climate index, 107.2 eyed; last 107.4.
  • (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Germany July IFO current conditions index, 113.0 eyed; last 113.1.
  • (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Germany July IFO expectations index, 101.8 eyed; last 102.0.
  • (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro zone June money supply M3, +5.1% AR eyed; last +5.0%, 3-month moving average +5.0%.
  • (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro zone June private loans, +0.6% eyed; last +0.5%.
  • (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US June durable goods orders, +3.0% m/m eyed; last -2.2%, ex-defence -2.5%.
  • (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US June ex-transport, +0.5% m/m eyed; last unchanged.
  • (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US June non-defence cap goods ex-air, +0.4% m/m eyed; last -0.4%.
  • (1030 ET/1430 GMT) US July Dallas Fed manufacturing business index; last -7.0.
Key Events Ahead
  • N/A Germany E1.5 bln 12-month bill, France BTF Treasury note auctions.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported around 1.1000 levels and currently trading at 1.0998 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1013 and low at 1.0967 levels. Pair extends its upward trajectory into a fifth day versus the US dollar in mid-Asia, pushing pair to fresh session highs above 1.10 handle. The major is seen picking up pace on the back of broad based US dollar weakness as weak US home sales data continue to weigh on the greenback. Optimism returned to currency markets last week and boosted the pair, when Greece's parliament approved by a wide margin a second set of economic reforms demanded by its international creditors, opening the way to detailed negotiations on a third bailout for the country. Moreover, Friday's mixed data with US new homes sales unexpectedly plummeting in June continued to weigh on the greenback's strength, aiding the pair. Looking ahead, markets now await the IFO Business Climate Index in Germany while US durable goods orders data will be closely watched ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision. Initial support is seen around at 1.0789 and resistance at 1.1083 levels.

USD/JPY is supported below 124.00 levels and posted a high of 123.82 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.50 and currently trading at 123.50 levels. The major came under fresh selling pressure after the Asian traders ditched the US currency mulling over Friday's lack lustre home sales data from the US. US new home sales unexpectedly plummeted in June, falling 6.8% to 482,000 units, worse than the expected reading of 548,000 sales, and a 0.3% hike anticipated by markets. Looking ahead, markets turn their attention towards the New York session with the key US durable goods data on cards which may set the tone for Wednesday's FOMC statement. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 120.63 levels.

GBP/USD is supported above $1.5500 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5536 and low at 1.5502 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5526 levels. Last week Sterling fell below $1.55 levels after UK retail sales fell 0.2 pct unexpectedly in June having traded at $1.5656 beforehand. Today UK will release CBI industrial orders expectations data. Initial support is seen at 1.5413 and resistance is seen around 1.5734 levels.

NZDUSD is supported around 0.6600 levels and trading at 0.6587 levels and made intraday low at 0.6561 and high at 0.6602 levels. The New Zealand dollar is the biggest mover last week, jumping 1.5 percent after the RBNZ disappointed those who bet on a larger cut in interest rates and toned down its call for more falls for the kiwi. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) was lowered from 3.25% to 3.0% on Thursday, and the central bank explicitly stated that further rate cuts were likely. New Zealand's monthly merchandise trade balance fell into deficit for the first time since December last month. Today is no major data is expecting from the New Zealand market will eye on US data for the further movement. Initial support is seen at 0.6465 and resistance at 0.6722 levels.

AUD/USD is supported around 0.7300 levels and trading at 0.7290 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7297 levels and low at 0.7266 levels. The Australian dollar reversed losses and edged higher versus the US dollar in Asia, lifting AUD/USD towards 0.73 barrier, as the AUD bulls jumped back into the bids as the US currency continues to lose ground following poor US housing data released on Friday. The Aussie shaved-off losses largely on profit-taking after the recent drop to fresh six-year lows stemmed by tumbling commodities prices and tepid China data. Moreover, the situation on the commodities market, with bullion prices reaching multi-year lows added extra bearish pressure to the Aussie. Traders now look forward to a host of crucial US economic data to be released in the week along with a slew of data from Australia as well. While Friday's FOMC decision and Thursday's RBA Stevens speech are expected to emerge the main markets movers this week. Initial support is seen at 0.7225 and resistance at 0.7647 levels.

Equity Recap
Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell today on weak sentiment after losses in Asian stocks, with the Thai index hitting a more than seven month low after weaker than expected exports in June. The Thai benchmark was down 1.57 percent at 1,415.50, the lowest level since December 2015.

Singapore's Straits Times Index was down 0.8 percent, with shares of DBS Group Holdings 1.1 percent lower after it reported a second-quarter net profit rise but warned of some uncertainty in the second half.

Malaysia hit a two week low in line with a fall in the ringgit. Indonesia hovered around a more-than-two-week low and the Philippines retreated after four successive days of gains.

Australia's A&P/ASX 200 index closes up 0.28 pct at 5,581.60 points.

Tokyo's Nikkei average closes down 0.95 pct at 20,350.10.
Treasury Recap
10-year US treasury yield at 2.260 percent vs US close of 2.273 percent on Friday.

South Korea sells 20-year treasury bonds; dated Dec. 10, 2013 at average yield of 2.560 pct. South Korea sells 20-year treasury bonds, dated Sept. 10, 2015 at average yield of 2.575 pct.

India benchmark bond yield opens at 7.82% vs 7.83% previous close.

New Zealand government bond yields were as much as 3 basis points lower with 10-year yields at 3.335 percent, the lowest since April.

Australian government bond futures rose, with the 3-year bond contract up 3 ticks at 98.130. The 10-year contract gained 5.5 ticks to 97.2050
Commodity Recap
Gold is trading just above its lowest level since 2010 on Monday, struggling to move higher as the market reckons the U.S. Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates. The Fed will hold a two-day meeting that ends on Wednesday at which policymakers are likely to send more signals pointing to a rate rise later in the year as the US economy strengthens. Spot gold is flat at $1,097.96 an ounce by 0229 GMT after falling for a fifth straight week last week, the longest run since late 2012.

Oil prices fell further on Monday after closing the last week at their lowest since March as oversupply concerns from the United States and Iraq, and the Iranian deal also helps to drag prices down. US benchmark, WTI, dropped 0.54% to $47.87 a barrel on Monday, while Brent crude was at $54.49 per barrel, a 0.24% decrease.

Source : FX-Primus

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