LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
Intraday EUR/USD: The recovery from Thursday's low at 1.1032 is likely to struggle, especially while two resistance levels at 1.1136 and 1.1191 remain out of reach. Thursday's high at 1.1122 marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 1.1279 to 1.1032 decline, and EUR bears have Monday's 1.0950 as their main target. Intra-day support at 1.1071 and 1.1007 helps to guard the 1.0950 low.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Thursday's bear hammer candle suggests a period of downside consolidation retracing some of Tuesday's five-week low at 121.93 is underway. The sharp setback from Thursday's high at 123.75 touched 122.81 during Friday's Asian session, and strong backup support lies at 122.61 and 122.50. Only below 122.50 would uncover the 121.93 low. Resistance at 123.29 and 123.38 guard the 123.75 high.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday GBP/USD: The notable recovery from Thursday's new two-week low at 1.5566 suggests the momentum behind the bear wave from the June 18 peak at 1.5930 is running out of steam. Thursday's trend-neutralizing doji candle would be confirmed on a break above 1.5637, opening projected resistance at 1.5685. However, solid resistance on this week's Market Profile chart also lies at 1.5685, indicating limited upside scope. Loss of support at 1.5595 would re-expose the 1.5566 low, threatening a downtrend extension towards a minimum downside objective at 1.5528.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Rejected Thursday's five-week high at 0.9504, and support at 0.9415 is under pressure. USD bulls failed in their quest to meet a minimum upside requirement target at 0.9512, and challenging support at 0.9375 is the main objective for this setback. That 0.9375 support area is important on this week's Market Profile chart, and only below 0.9375 would create scope for additional downside risk. Recapturing ground above 0.9480 would suggest a return to the 0.9504 high is on the cards.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/GBP: Continues to consolidate the strong bounce from Monday's seven-and-a-half year low at 0.6990. The setback from 0.7166 found support at Wednesday's 0.7065 low, to prevent a minimum downside requirement target at 0.7042. However, this puts the onus on EUR bulls to challenge resistance at 0.7127/36. It would therefore require a fresh wave of bull pressure to force a break above 0.7127/36, to re-open the 0.7166 high. The 0.7065 low has become a pivotal level, because a push below 0.7065 would upgrade the bear wave from 0.7166, generating a new minimum downside objective at 0.7025.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: A consolidation phase between the week's low at 135.88 and resistance at 137.52 extends, and the prior risk of testing the range floor is receding. The low at 136.23 during Friday's Asian session is at risk of becoming a truncated bear failure, and a break above internal resistance at 136.90 would bring the 137.42/137.52 highs back into focus. Failure to hold onto the 136.23 low would expose the 135.88 floor, while threatening a push lower towards 135.20.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: The four-week falling resistance line at 1.0537 has refused to buckle, leaving a bear hammer candle on the daily chart. The bear hammer candle has already been confirmed on the downside breach of 1.0449, deepening the retracement of this week's 1.0300 to 1.0524 rally and exposing 1.0415. The midpoint of the 1.0300 to 1.0524 rally also lies in the 1.0415 area. Recapturing ground above 1.0486 is required to provide respite, but the 1.0524 high is considered secure.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Weakness during Friday's Asian session is setting eleven-week lows below 0.7587. The push lower bolsters two bull failure lower highs at 0.7849 and 0.7739, and the 2015 low at 0.7533 is now vulnerable. Two minimum downside requirement targets at 0.7502 and 0.7481 are on course to be met, and scope to 0.7306 has been signalled for the broader-term. Resistance at 0.7628 and 0.7650 would have to be cleared in order to question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
This Technical Analysis column will be discontinued in the not-too-distant future. I would like to thank everyone for their valued support over the past six years.
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 03, 2015 02:36 ET (06:36 GMT)
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