EUR Extending, Its Slide

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Thursday's seven-week low at 1.0855 will remain vulnerable while the 1.0926/44 resistance cluster caps the upside. This week's Market Profile chart indicates the 1.10 level has been lost, and the upgraded bear wave from the July 10 lower high at 1.1216 has the May 27 reaction low at 1.0819 and a falling support line of a two-month bear channel at 1.0801 in its sights. Furthermore, a downwave equality target has been generated at 1.0702. Only above the 1.0992/1.1006 congestive resistance area would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The powerful short-term uptrend from last week's 120.41 reaction low has the June lower highs at 124.38/124.46 within striking distance. Negating Tuesday's bearish spinning top candle has given USD bulls the new lease of life, and the symbolic 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 125.86 to 120.41 decline provides the upper boundary of a resistance cluster between 124.38 and 124.58. It therefore requires a concerted wave of USD bull pressure to force a break through 124.58, opening 125.00. The 123.36/123.45 area provides strong support, which has protection at 123.89.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Thursday's bounce from 1.5561 is putting pressure on key resistance at 1.5642, and GBP bulls are looking favourable for an upside break. The 1.5561 low is a pending bear failure, and a break above 1.5642 would consign the 1.5561 low to bear failure status, signalling a full retracement to Wednesday's two-week high at 1.5674. The successful defence of projected support at 1.5538 keeps the broader bull wave from the July 8 reaction low at 1.5332 intact, and on track for the minimum upside requirement target at 1.5711. Failure to hold onto 1.5538 would offer new downside risk to Tuesday's 1.5452 low.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/CHF: The push into eleven-week highs brings three equality targets between 0.9601 and 0.9626 within striking distance. The push higher bolsters both Tuesday's low at 0.9400 and the July 10 intra-wave higher low at 0.9330, and two wave equality targets at 0.9601 and 0.9603 should be met during the current session. However, the other important target at 0.9626 also needs to be met in the coming sessions, in order to validate the broader recovery from the May 7 base at 0.9072. Support at 0.9510 and 0.9450 guard the 0.9400 low.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Extends the push into seven-and-a-half year lows below 0.6990, to expose a minor higher low at 0.6920 from November 2007. This week's decisive break below 0.6990 has generate a much deeper minimum downside requirement target at 0.6833, and only support at the October 2007 low at 0.6894 might be able to prevent the slide from meeting the 0.6833 target. This week's Market Profile chart suggests the 0.70 level has been lost, and only above 0.6997 would offer respite up to 0.7027.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The 135 level has been breached to the downside, and the recently-completed bear pennant continuation pattern on the 60-minute chart indicates weakness to 134.54 at least. Also, the wave structure of the decline from Monday's 137.80 peak has generated a minimum downside requirement target at 133.86, dragging the July 9 key reaction low at 133.30 into the picture. A recovery above 135.86 is required to offer respite, but only above the 136.36 lower high would question the bearish outlook.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Remains on a weak footing beneath 1.05, and EUR bears are still on track for the July 6 higher low at 1.0356. This week's EUR weakness bolsters the July 10 bull trap high at 1.0525, and a break below Wednesday's low at 1.0396 would expose 1.0356. Loss of 1.0356 is required to consign the 1.0525 high to bull failure status, uncovering the June 29 reaction low at 1.0300. Resistance at 1.0455 hampers corrective upside scope, and only above 1.0480 would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Recovers diffidently from Thursday's new six-year low at 0.7350, which has potential upside scope to 0.7490. However, the rally is clearly counter-trend, because Wednesday's bearish outside day and bearish engulfing candle completed a six-day bear pennant continuation pattern on the daily chart, and the bear wave from the June 18 lower high at 0.7849 is on track to meet its 0.7306 objective. Furthermore, the bear pennant pattern indicates risk to 0.7260. Recapturing ground above 0.7426 would offer respite, but upside risk is capped.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 17, 2015 02:16 ET (06:16 GMT)

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