EUR/GBP Set for New Long-Term Lows

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Tuesday's low at 1.0965 has become the last line of defence protecting the July 7 low at 1.0916. The 1.0965 low is expected to come under renewed bear pressure, and a push lower would extend the bear wave from last Friday's 1.1216 high, exposing 1.0916. A deeper downside threat to the May 27 low at 1.0819 would then be signalled, and a new minimum downside objective at 1.0702 would be produced. Notable resistance at 1.1030 and 1.1073 on the Market Profile charts would have to be broken in order to lift the tone, and above 1.1090 would then open 1.1135.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Tuesday's bearish spinning top candle suggests a near-term consolidation phase beneath 123.74 is underway. The candle threatens to mark the end of the four-day recovery from the 120.41 reaction low, and corrective downside risk has scope to test strong support at 122.71; acquired from Monday's Market Profile chart. Ignoring the bearish nature of the spinning top candle would prompt a break above 123.74, and next in line above 123.89 are the 124.38/124.46 lower highs that were set in June. Only below 122.40 would concern USD bulls.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Tuesday's bullish outside day puts GBP bulls back on track for a test of the 1.5669/1.5711 resistance cluster. Tuesday's strength confirms a higher low at 1.5452, supporting last week's 1.5332 reaction low and keeping the crucial projected support level at 1.5289 out of reach. A new minimum upside requirement target has been generated at 1.5711; coinciding with strong resistance on the Market Profile charts. Support at 1.5530 and 1.5490 hamper scope for corrective weakness.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Stuttered to a six-week high at 0.9532 on Tuesday, and equality targets at 0.9601 and 0.9626 are still on course to be met. This is despite Tuesday's subsequent setback to 0.9400, and USD bulls will remain in overall control while last Friday's low at 0.9330 holds. The 0.9532 high would be uncovered on a break above 0.9480/0.9500.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: The June 29 reaction low at 0.6990 has been dragged back into the immediate picture, and a downside break is on the cards. Tuesday's weakness consigned last week's 0.7223 high to bull failure status, because a minimum upside requirement target at 0.7238 was not met. A push into seven-and-a-half year lows below 0.6990 would generate a new downwave equality target at 0.6833. Resistance at 0.7061 and 0.7101 hamper scope for corrective upside risk.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Monday's low at 135.02 will remain under threat while projected resistance at 136.81 caps the upside. The rally from Tuesday's 135.30 low is struggling, and a break below 135.30 would expose the 135.02 low, while threatening a deeper decline towards the July 9 marginal six-week low at 133.30. Resistance at 136.20 and 136.56 guard the near-term pivotal resistance level at 136.81.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Weakness to the July 6 higher low at 1.0356 has been signalled on Tuesday's fall. The push lower bolsters last Friday's bull trap high at 1.0525, and a break below 1.0356 would consign the 1.0525 high to bull failure status, exposing the June 29 reaction low at 1.0300. Resistance at 1.0440 and 1.0455 hampers corrective upside scope, and only above 1.0480 would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Closes in on key resistance at 0.7499/0.7510, within what is considered a bear flag continuation pattern. The successful defence of last week's six-year low at 0.7372 projects the flag's rising resistance line to 0.7510; just above last Friday's 0.7499 high. That said, it would take a concerted wave of bull pressure to force a break above 0.7510, leaving a double-bottom base pattern at the recent 0.7372/83 lows, while producing a measured upside objective at 0.7626. The 0.7372/83 lows has protection at 0.7426 on this week's fledgling Market Profile chart.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 15, 2015 02:13 ET (06:13 GMT)

#FX
#Forex
#SaleForex
#EUR_GBP
#EURGBP
#TechnicalAnalysis
#NewLongTermsLows
#SetFor
#TrendBearish
#TrendBullish