EUR/USD Struggles to Reach $1.10

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Tuesday's high at 1.0969 remains under threat, and a push higher is expected. The rejection of Monday's marginal twelve-week low at 1.0808 indicates a test of 1.10 is on the cards, and a push above 1.0969 would open the 1.0992/1.1006 resistance area on the weekly Market Profile charts. EUR bulls would be given a new lease of life on a sustained break above 1.1006, offering additional scope to projected resistance at 1.1108. Weakness will attract support while above 1.0869, and the 1.0808 low is adequately protected.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The strong recovery from Wednesday's low at 123.57 suggests an impasse is developing beneath the 124.50 resistance level. Tuesday's bearish outside day peak at 124.48 marks the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 125.86 to 120.41 decline, and it would take a fresh wave of USD bull pressure to force a push higher, signalling a return to the 2015 peak at 125.86. Wednesday's low at 123.57 prevented the congestive support area between 123.36 and 123.45 on the weekly Market Profile chart from becoming exposed, suggesting downside risk is limited. Internal support lies at 123.89 and 123.70.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Tuesday's low at 1.5530 is at risk of becoming a significant bear failure, following Wednesday's recovery to 1.5645. Just above 1.5645 lies last Friday's pending bull failure high at 1.5674, and range trading between 1.5530 and 1.5674 is developing. Above 1.5674 would open upside scope to 1.5712, while loss of 1.5530 would expose the July 14 higher low at 1.5452.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/CHF: The consolidation phase from Monday's twelve-week at 0.9649 high is expected to be contained above 0.9543. The recovery from Tuesday's 0.9560 low was capped at 0.9632, producing the 0.9543 objective. The broader uptrend favours an upside breakout above 0.9649, and scope to 0.9775 is on offer further down the line. Only a sustained break below 0.9543 would defer the overall bull tone, exposing 0.95 and potentially 0.9463.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Recovers from Wednesday's 0.6965 low, to protect last week's seven-and-a-half year low at 0.6937. However, the recovery needs to force a break above 0.7024 to indicate a return to Tuesday's 0.7045 high, while giving EUR bulls licence to stretch the move towards the 0.7104 area. Loss of 0.6965 would put EUR bears in control, exposing the 0.6937 low. Broader-term bears still have a key objective at 0.6833 to meet.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The upward breach of 135.76 during Thursday's Asian session offers upside scope to 136.26. The bull wave from Monday's six-week low at 134.35 has been upgraded, and the minimum upside requirement target at 136.26 lies close to the July 15 intra-wave lower high at 136.36. Further gains to the July 13 peak at 137.80 would then become the main threat. This week's Market Profile chart highlights support at 135.30 and 134.60.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: The seven-week falling resistance line drops to 1.0510 during Thursday's session, as EUR bulls breach the 1.05 level for the first time in two weeks. The successful defence of the 1.04 support area brings the July 10 reaction high at 1.0525 back into the picture, and 1.0525 is a key high, because it marks a pending bull failure. The June 4 reaction high at 1.0574 would become accessible on a break above 1.0525. The Market Profile charts show support at 1.0445 and 1.0435 protect the 1.04 area.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Bears are within striking distance of a key objective at 0.7354, and last Friday's six-year low at 0.7328 is vulnerable again. The broader bear wave from the June 18 lower high at 0.7849 remains structurally intact for its downwave equality target at 0.7306, which would become accessible on a break below 0.7328. A push into new session highs above 0.7393 would offer respite, although only above 0.7430 would re-open this week's 0.7449 high.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 23, 2015 02:37 ET (06:37 GMT)

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