GBP Under Pressure; AUD Downtrend Extends

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: EUR bears will remain in the ascendancy while projected resistance at 1.1059 caps the upside. Tuesday's fall to a five-week low at 1.0916 generated two new down wave equality targets at 1.0795 and 1.0773, which coincides with the falling support line of a seven-week bear channel. Resistance at 1.1059 would have to be decisively broken in order to damage the structure of the short-term bear wave, opening 1.1095 and 1.1122.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/JPY: A push into new six-week lows below 121.70 is expected, following Tuesday's truncated bull failure at 122.88. The failure to recapture the 123 level provides USD bears with the opportunity to extend the bear wave from the June 5 peak at 125.86, and loss of 121.70 would expose two down wave equality targets at 121.02 and 120.89. Recapturing ground above 122.43 and 122.57 is required to question the bearish outlook.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: The short-term bear wave from 1.5930 extends sharply below 1.5522, and Tuesday's low at 1.5415 remains vulnerable. The Market Profile charts indicate further weakness to 1.5385 and 1.5310 is on offer, especially while resistance at 1.5555 caps the upside. A 1.618 Fibonacci extension target lies at 1.5371 and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 1.5172 to 1.5930 rally lands at 1.5345.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Spiked to a new six-week high at 0.9516 on Tuesday, and further gains are on the cards. The upward breach of 0.9512 cemented the bear failure at the June 18 low at 0.9151, and USD bulls have the May 27 high at 0.9543 as their next target. There is also a broader upside equality target at 0.9626 to meet. The July 3 low at 0.9399 defines downside risk.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Tuesday's low at 0.7060 has been confirmed as a bear failure, indicating a test of the June 29 high at 0.7166 is in the offing. The upward breach of 0.7136 has strengthened the 0.7060 low significantly, protecting last week's seven-and-a-half year low at 0.6990, and a break above 0.7166 would generate a new minimum upside objective at 0.7238. The 0.7060 low would only be re-exposed on a break below congestive support between 0.7078 and 0.7086.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Rejects a new six-week low at 133.52, although EUR volatility remains high. In order to build on Tuesday's bear trap at 133.52, EUR bulls need to force a break above 135.41, which would then create additional upside scope to the week's high at 136.06. Failure to defend the 133.52 low would increase the bear stranglehold, exposing the key May 26 reaction low at 133.10, and potentially 131.15.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Tuesday's inside day keeps the action trapped in an impasse between 1.0356 and 1.0456. Strong support at 1.0356 kept last week's low at 1.0300 low out of trouble, and Monday's 1.0456 high is part of key resistance up to 1.0460 on last week's Market Profile chart. Last week's high at 1.0524 would then become vulnerable on a break above 1.0460.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Sets new six-year lows below 0.7397 during Wednesday's Asian session, as AUD bears remain in control. The bear wave from the June 18 lower high at 0.7849 is sub-dividing, and downside objectives at 0.7342 and 0.7325 are within striking distance. A deeper objective at 0.7254 is also expected to be met in the coming sessions. It would take a recovery above 0.7477 just to offer respite.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Dow Jones will no longer be offering in-house Technical Analysis to subscribers in the not-too-distant future. I would like to thank everyone for their valued support over the past six years.
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 08, 2015 02:21 ET (06:21 GMT)

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