(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate after hitting six-week low 121.72 Monday. Undermined by flows to haven yen amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 1.31% to 17.01, S&P 500 closed 0.39% lower at 2,068.76 overnight) as fears mount over eventual Greece's exit from the eurozone after Sunday's referendum showed 61.3% of Greek voters rejected austerity terms demanded by creditors in exchange for further aid, although Monday's selloff in many riskier assets weren't as large as many investors had feared. USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year fell 10.0 bps to 2.290% Monday); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY downside limited by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan June international reserves; 1230 GMT U.S. May trade balance (forecast deficit $42.8 billion); 1400 GMT U.S. May job openings (forecast 5.35 million) & labor turnover survey; 1400 GMT U.S. July IBD/TIPP economic optimism index. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 122.16 (hourly chart), then at 121.72 (Monday's low); breach would target 121.44 (May 25 low), then 121.01 (100-day moving average) and 120.61 (May 22 low). Resistance at 122.92 (Monday's high), then at 123.19 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 123.72 (Thursday's high), then 123.99 (June 26 high), 124.38-124.46 band (June 24 high-June 17 high), 124.63 (June 10 high) and 124.74 (June 9 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate as markets await outcome of Tuesday's meeting of eurozone leaders in Brussels where Greece will be given a final chance to present a new reform plan. EUR/USD weighed by growing probability of Greece's exit from the eurozone after "no" vote in Sunday's referendum; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; news that ECB toughened terms of its emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek banks. But euro sentiment soothed by resignation of confrontational Greek finance minister Varoufakis which many viewed as a positive sign for negotiations with creditors; smaller-than-expected 0.2% on-month drop in Germany May industrial orders (versus forecast -0.5%); stronger-than-expected eurozone July Sentix index of 18.5 (versus forecast 15.0). EUR/USD downside also limited by unwinding of euro-funded carry trades amid decreased risk appetite; scaling down of short-euro hedges as European stocks fall (Stoxx Europe 600 closed down 1.24% Monday). Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany May industrial production index (forecast unchanged on-month). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 1.1001 (hourly chart), then at 1.0967 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.0950 (June 29 low), then 1.0887 (June 1 low), 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low), 1.0784 (April 24 low) and 1.0658 April 21 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1095 (Monday's high), then at 1.1117-1.1122 (Friday's high-Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1171 (Wednesday's high), then to 1.1243 (June 30 high), 1.1278 (June 29 high), 1.1347 (June 23 high) and 1.1410 (June 22 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-year low 0.7448 Monday as markets await 0430 GMT Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision: RBA is expected to make no change to monetary policy. AUD/USD weighed by reduced investor risk appetite as Greece crisis festers; turmoil in China's stock markets; soft commodity and iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $2.10 Monday to more-than-two-month low $52.00/ton). Other data: 0630 GMT Australia June official reserve assets. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7448 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7240 (May 1, 2009 low), then the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7533 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.7648-0.7656 band (Thursday's high-Thursday's high), then 0.7738 (Wednesday's high), 0.7752 (June 25 high), 0.7771 (June 24 high), 0.7796 (June 22 high) and 0.7809 (June 19 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting five-year low 0.6640 Monday. Undermined by decreased investor risk appetite amid mounting concerns that Greece may leave the eurozone; soft dairy prices; divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; New Zealand 2Q NZIER quarterly survey of business opinion showing a net 7% of firms now expect business conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 20% in the first quarter. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.6640 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.6714 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.6731 (Friday's high), then 0.6744 (Thursday's high), 0.6810 (Wednesday's high), 0.6854 (June 30 high) and 0.6880 (June 29 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate in higher range after hitting three-week low 1.5530 Monday. Supported by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD gains tempered by reduced investor risk tolerance amid fears that Greece may eventually leave the eurozone. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. May industrial production (forecast +0.1% on-month, +2.0% on-year) and manufacturing output (forecast +0.2% on-month, +1.9% on-year); 1400 GMT U.K. June NIESR monthly GDP estimates. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Resistance at 1.5628 (Monday's high), then at 1.5643 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5732 (Wednesday's high), then 1.5774 (June 30 high), 1.5787 (June 29 high), 1.5802 (June 24 high), and 1.5831 (June 23 high). Support at 1.5530 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.5485 (June 15 low), then 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate in lower range. Undermined by franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross; higher-than-expected Switzerland June CPI of +0.1% on-month, -1.0% on-year (versus forecast -0.1% on-month, -1.2% on-year). But USD/CHF losses tempered by threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates. Data focus: 0545 GMT Switzerland June unemployment (forecast 3.3%); 0700 GMT Switzerland June SNB foreign currency reserves. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Support at 0.9403 (Monday's low), then at 0.9392 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9337 (Wednesday's low), then 0.9241 (June 29 low), 0.9207 (June 23 low), 0.9152-0.9145 band (June 22 low-June 18 low) and 0.9108 (May 15 low). Resistance at 0.9473 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.9506-0.9514 band (Thursday's high-May 28 high), then 0.9528 (200-day moving average), 0.9545 (May 27 reaction high), 0.9598 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 reaction high).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-three-month high 1.2663 Monday. Underpinned by weak oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $4.40 at $52.53/bbl Monday); decreased risk tolerance. But loonie sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected Canada June Ivey PMI of 55.9. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada May trade balance (forecast deficit C$2.4 billion). Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics reverted to bullish mode at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.2663-1.2667 (Monday's high-April 10 reaction high); breach would expose upside to 1.2783 (March 31 reaction high), then 1.2833 (March 18 swing high). Support at 1.2560 (Monday's low), then at 1.2534 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2471 (Wednesday's low), then 1.2358 (June 30 low), 1.2302 (June 29 low), 1.2273 (June 24 low) and 1.2215-1.2210 (June 22 low-June 19 low).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate after hitting one-week low 133.67 Monday. Undermined by ongoing Greece crisis; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY downside limited by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Resistance at 135.99 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 136.85-136.90 (Friday's high-Thursday's high), then 137.39 (Wednesday's high), 137.74 (June 30 high), 138.07 (June 29 high) and 138.67 (June 26 high). Support at 134.53 (hourly chart), then at 133.67 (Monday's low); breach would target 133.54 (100-day moving average), then 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 06, 2015 19:39 ET (23:39 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias as Greece crisis weighs. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 0.7050 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6981 (seven-and-a-half year low hit June 29), then 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7121 (Monday's high), then at 0.7140-0.7146 band (Friday's high-June 30 high); breach would target 0.7168 (June 29 high), then 0.7179 (June 23 high), 0.7210-0.7213 (June 22 high-June 17 high), 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 06, 2015 19:39 ET (23:39 GMT)
#FX
#Forex
#SaleForex
#MajorFX
#MostlyConsolidating
#EU_Meeting
#RBA_Focus
#AsiaDailyForexOutlook
0 Response to "Major FX Mostly Consolidating; EU Meeting, RBA in Focus -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.