(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate after hitting four-day high 122.88 Friday. Undermined by flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid diminished risk appetite as a new bailout deal for Greece remains uncertain after European leaders compromised Sunday that negotiations on a new rescue could only start after Parliament in Athens pass tough new laws, including on pensions, by Wednesday and prepare further rapid reforms that Greece had until now resisted. Focus Monday also on China stocks--Shanghai Composite rebounded 4.57% Friday but market participants are watching if prices would resume falling given the huge losses inflicted on investors in recent days. USD/JPY also weighed by Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Data focus: 0430 GMT Japan May tertiary industry index; 0430 GMT Japan May revised industrial production, revised retail sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish. Support at 122.00 (hourly chart), then at 121.55 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 120.44-120.38 band (Thursday's low-Wednesday's low), then psychological 120.00 line, 119.22 (May 18 low) and 118.86 (May 14 reaction low). Resistance at 122.88-122.92 (Friday's high-July 6 high); breach would target 123.19 (July 3 high), then 123.72 (July 2 high) and 123.99 (June 26 high).
EUR/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Euro sentiment dented after European leaders agree that negotiations on a new rescue for Greece could only start after Parliament in Athens pass pension overhauls and sales-tax increases, along with further financial-policy measures, by Wednesday. EUR/USD also weighed by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. But EUR/USD losses tempered by unwinding of euro-funded carry trades amid receding risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish. Support at 1.1086 (hourly chart), then at 1.1029 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.0989 (Thursday's low), then 1.0972 (Wednesday's low), 1.0915 (Tuesday's low), 1.0887 (June 1 low) and 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1215 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.1243 (June 30 high), then 1.1278 (June 29 high) and 1.1347 (June 23 high).
AUD/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by decreased risk appetite as uncertainty over Greece lingers. Aussie also vulnerable to movements in China stocks. But AUD/USD losses tempered by rebounding iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron rose $1.60 Friday to $49.90/ton). Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia May lending finance. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Support at 0.7405 (Friday's low), then at 0.7390 (Thursday's low); breach would target 0.7368 (Wednesday's six-year low), then 0.7240 (May 1, 2009 low) and psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7496-0.7501 (Friday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7533 (July 6 high), then 0.7648-0.7656 band (July 3 high-July 2 high), 0.7738 (July 1 high), 0.7752 (June 25 high) and 0.7771 (June 24 high).
NZD/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by subdued risk appetite as uncertainty over Greece lingers; divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; soft dairy prices. Kiwi also vulnerable to movements in China stocks. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics bullish; but bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Friday. Support at 0.6680 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6619 (Tuesday's five-year low), then 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low) and 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.6771 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.6810 (July 1 high), then 0.6854 (June 30 high), 0.6880 (June 29 high) and 0.6924 (June 25 reaction high).
GBP/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by decreased risk tolerance as uncertainty over Greece lingers. But sterling sentiment soothed by narrower-than-expected U.K. May global goods trade deficit of GBP8.0 billion (versus forecast GBP9.8 billion). GBP/USD losses also tempered by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. 2Q Bank of England's Bank liabilities & credit conditions surveys. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels. Support at 1.5465 (hourly chart), then at 1.5361 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.5341 (Thursday's low), then 1.5328 (Wednesday's low), 1.5271 (100-day moving average), 1.5256 (June 9 low), 1.5219 (June 8 low) and 1.5188 (June 5 reaction low). Resistance at 1.5550 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5608 (Tuesday's high), 1.5628 (July 6 high), 1.5643 (July 3 high) and 1.5732 (July 1 high).
USD/CHF--to trade with bullish bias. Supported by broadly firmer USD undertone as uncertainty over Greece lingers; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates. But USD/CHF gains tempered by franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Resistance at 0.9422 (hourly chart), then at 0.9492 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.9517 (Thursday's high, near 200-day moving average), then 0.9545 (May 27 reaction high), 0.9598 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 reaction high). Support at 0.9329 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9241 (June 29 low), then 0.9207 (June 23 low), 0.9152-0.9145 band (June 22 low-June 18 low) and 0.9108 (May 15 low).
USD/CAD--to trade with bullish bias. Supported by decreased risk appetite as uncertainty over Greece lingers; weaker oil prices (Nymex crude last down 67 cents at $52.07/bbl on Globex). But loonie sentiment soothed by lower-than-expected Canada June jobless rate of 6.8% (versus forecast 6.9%) & net jobs change of -6,400 (versus forecast -10,000). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages advancing; but stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Resistance at 1.2753 (Friday's high), then at 1.2768 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.2779-1.2783 (Tuesday's high-March 31 reaction high), then 1.2833 (March 18 swing high), psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high). Support at 1.2652 (Thursday's low), then at 1.2640 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2560 (July 6 low), then 1.2534 (July 3 low), 1.2471 (July 1 low), 1.2358 (June 30 low) and 1.2302 (June 29 low).
EUR/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by continued uncertainty over Greece. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels. Support at 135.31 (hourly chart), then at 133.72 (Friday's low); breach would target 133.26 (Thursday's low), then 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low). Resistance at 137.27 (Friday's high); breach would target 137.74 (June 30 high), then 138.07 (June 29 high), 139.15 (June 24 high) and psychological 140.00 line.
EUR/GBP--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by continued uncertainty over Greece. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Support at 0.7142 (this morning low); breach would target 0.7102 (Wednesday's low), then 0.7056-0.7050 band (Tuesday's low-July 6 low), 0.6981 (seven-and-a-half year low hit June 29), 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7223 (Friday's high, matching Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7250 (June 16 high), then 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 12, 2015 19:39 ET (23:39 GMT)
#FX
#Forex
#SaleForex
#Major_FX
#Retreats
#GreeceDeal
#StillUncertain
#AsiaDailyForexOutlook
0 Response to "Major FX Retreats as Greece Deal Still Uncertain -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.