(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting eight-day high 123.72 Tuesday as markets await Bank of Japan monetary policy decision and Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen's presentation of Monetary Policy Report to U.S. House Financial Services Committee scheduled at 1400 GMT. USD/JPY undermined by weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.60 versus 96.80 early Tuesday) after surprise 0.3% on-month drop in U.S. June retail sales (versus forecast +0.2%); weaker-than-expected U.S. June NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism (came in at 94.1 versus forecast 98.4); unexpected 0.1% on-month drop in U.S. June import price index (versus forecast +0.1%). USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year slipped 3.2 bps to 2.397% Tuesday); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid diminished investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 3.81% to 13.37; S&P 500 closed up 0.45% at 2,108.95 overnight); demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Data focus: 1230 GMT U.S. June PPI (forecast +0.2% on-month); 1230 GMT U.S. July Empire State manufacturing index (forecast 3); 1315 GMT U.S. June industrial production (forecast +0.2% on-month) & capacity utilization (forecast 78.1%); 1800 GMT U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book. Daily chart tilting positive as stochastics in bullish mode, MACD turning bullish, five-day moving average rising above 15-day moving average. Support at 122.91 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 122.00 (Monday's low), then 121.55 (Friday's low), 120.44-120.38 band (Thursday's low-July 8 low), psychological 120.00 line, 119.22 (May 18 low) and 118.86 (May 14 reaction low). Resistance at 123.72 (Tuesday's high, matching July 2 high); breach would target 123.99 (June 26 high), then 124.38-124.46 band (June 24 high-June 17 high), 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate as market participants wait to see if Greek PM Tsipras could obtain parliamentary approval for economic reforms in return for a new EUR86 billion bailout from international creditors by Wednesday's deadline. EUR/USD weighed by surprise 0.4% on-month drop in eurozone May industrial production (versus forecast +0.2%); European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. But euro sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected Germany July ZEW indicator of economic sentiment (came in at 29.7 versus forecast 28.0). EUR/USD downside also limited by weaker dollar sentiment. Daily chart tilting negative as MACD in bearish mode, stochastics turning bearish. Support at 1.0964 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.0915 (July 7 low), then 1.0887 (June 1 low) and 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1081 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1196 (Monday's high), then 1.1215 (Friday's high), 1.1243 (June 30 high), 1.1278 (June 29 high) and 1.1347 (June 23 high).
AUD/USD--to trade with bullish bias. Supported by weaker dollar sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/JPY cross amid diminished investor risk aversion; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Aussie vulnerable to 0200 GMT China 2Q GDP (forecast +6.8% on-year), China June fixed assets investment, industrial output (forecast +6.1% on-year), retail sales (forecast +10.2% on-year). Other data: 0030 GMT Australia July Westpac - Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey; 0130 GMT Australia June new motor vehicles sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.7478 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7496-0.7501 (Friday's high-July 7 high), then 0.7533 (July 6 high), 0.7648-0.7656 band (July 3 high-July 2 high), 0.7738 (July 1 high), 0.7752 (June 25 high) and 0.7771 (June 24 high). Support at 0.7385-0.7380 (Tuesday's low-Monday's low); breach would target 0.7368 (six-year low hit July 8), then 0.7240 (May 1, 2009 low) and psychological 0.7000 line.
NZD/USD--to range-trade. Supported by weaker dollar sentiment; Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid diminished investor risk aversion. But NZD/USD upside limited by divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; soft dairy prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Data focus: 1200 GMT NZ GlobalDairyTrade auction. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics in bearish mode. Resistance at 0.6742-0.6752 band (Tuesday's high-Monday's high); breach would target 0.6771 (Friday's high), then 0.6810 (July 1 high), 0.6854 (June 30 high), 0.6880 (June 29 high) and 0.6924 (June 25 reaction high). Support at 0.6666 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.6619 (five-year low hit July 7), then 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low) and 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low).
GBP/USD--to trade in higher range. Sterling sentiment boosted after Bank of England Governor Carney said that "The point at which interest rates may begin to rise is moving closer given the performance of the economy," while BOE's David Miles said the central bank should begin raising interest rates in the U.K. soon in order to keep future increases in borrowing costs smooth and steady. GBP/USD also supported by weaker dollar sentiment; sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid diminished investor risk aversion; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. unemployment rate in 3 months to May (forecast 5.5%), average weekly earnings excluding bonuses in 3 months to May (forecast +3.0% on-year), June jobless claimants change (forecast -10,000). Daily chart tilting positive as bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Tuesday; stochastics rising from oversold levels; negative MACD histogram bars contracting; bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Tuesday. Resistance at 1.5638 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5732 (July 1 high), then 1.5787 (June 29 high) and 1.5802 (June 24 high). Support at 1.5555 (hourly chart), then at 1.5449 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5361 (Friday's low), then 1.5341 (Thursday's low), 1.5328 (July 8 low), 1.5274 (100-day moving average), 1.5256 (June 9 low) and 1.5219 (June 8 low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Undermined by weaker dollar sentiment; franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses tempered by threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates. Data focus: 0900 GMT Switzerland July ZEW - Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated near overbought levels. Support at 0.9399 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.9365 (Monday's low), then 0.9329 (Friday's low), 0.9241 (June 29 low), 0.9207 (June 23 low), 0.9152-0.9145 band (June 22 low-June 18 low) and 0.9108 (May 15 low). Resistance at 0.9532 (Tuesday's high, near 200-day moving average); breach would target 0.9545 (May 27 reaction high), then 0.9598 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 reaction high).
USD/CAD--to consolidate in lower range after hitting near-four-month high 1.2805 Tuesday as markets await 1400 GMT Bank of Canada monetary policy decision: Seven out of 11 primary dealers of Canadian government securities surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted the central bank will cut its key interest rate to 0.5% from 0.75%. USD/CAD undermined by weaker dollar sentiment; loonie demand on buoyant CAD/JPY cross amid diminished investor risk aversion; firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up 84 cents at $53.04/bbl Tuesday). Other data: 1230 GMT Canada May new motor vehicle sales; 1230 GMT Canada May manufacturing sales (forecast +0.4% on-month); 1430 GMT EIA weekly petroleum status report. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, five- and 15-day moving averages advancing; but bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern completed Tuesday. Support at 1.2715 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.2668 (Monday's low), then 1.2652 (Thursday's low), 1.2640 (July 7 low), 1.2560 (July 6 low), 1.2534 (July 3 low) and 1.2471 (July 1 low). Resistance at 1.2805 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.2833 (March 18 swing high), then psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate, tracking movements in EUR/USD. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 135.25 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 133.72 (Friday's low), then 133.26 (Thursday's low), 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low). Resistance at 136.32 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 137.76 (Monday's high), then 138.07 (June 29 high), 139.15 (June 24 high) and psychological 140.00 line.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 14, 2015 19:34 ET (23:34 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Undermined by bullish sterling sentiment after hawkish comments on U.K. interest rates from Bank of England Governor Carney and BOE's David Miles. Daily chart negative-biased as stochastics in bearish mode; MACD turning bearish; five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average. Support at 0.7032 (Tuesday's low, tested this morning); breach would expose downside to 0.6981 (seven-and-a-half year low hit June 29), then 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7137 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7202 (Monday's high), then 0.7223 (Friday's high), 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 14, 2015 19:34 ET (23:34 GMT)
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