Sterling On The Back Foot; CHF Trounced

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The downward consolidation phase from Thursday's six-day high at 1.1018 can extend to 1.0918, without damaging the recovery from Monday's marginal twelve-week low at 1.0808. The 1.1018 high will remain vulnerable while 1.0918 support holds, and EUR bulls need to meet a wave equality target at 1.1030 to strengthen the 1.0808 low. Above 1.1030 would then open 1.1074 and 1.1108. Only below 1.0918 would leave the 1.1018 high as a pending bull failure, signalling new downside scope to 1.0808.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The impasse between Wednesday's low at 123.57 and the 124.50 resistance level extends. Tuesday's bearish outside day peak at 124.48 marks the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 125.86 to 120.41 decline, and USD bulls need to break internal resistance at 124.19 to re-open the 124.50 ceiling. The 125 area would then come into view. Loss of 123.57 would create new downside risk to 123.28, although the congestive support area between 123.36 and 123.45 on the weekly Market Profile chart will be difficult to smash.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: GBP bears have resolutely defended the 1.5675 resistance level, following Thursday's dramatic bearish outside day. Thursday's downward breach of 1.5590 completed a double-top formation at the recent 1.5674/70 peaks, producing a measured downside objective at 1.5386. However, support at 1.5490 and the 1.5452 higher low would have to be broken in order to bring the 1.5386 objective into view. Resistance at 1.5555 and 1.5625 guard the upside.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Thursday's bull hammer candle suggests a return to Monday's twelve-week at 0.9649 high is on the cards. The decisive rejection of Thursday's marginal low at 0.9526 keeps the wave structure of the five-week advance from 0.9151 intact, and a break into three-month highs above 0.9649 should be just around the corner. Targets at 0.9682 and 0.9718 would then be opened. Support at 0.9580 and 0.9558 inhibits downside risk, and only below 0.9526 would negate the bullish outlook.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Thursday's surge to 0.7101 helps the short-term EUR bulls' cause, and paves the way for further gains. The push above 0.7045 secured a higher low at 0.6965, strengthening last week's seven-and-a-half year low at 0.6937 somewhat. However, the recovery needs to force a break above 0.7104 to open 0.7150 and projected resistance at 0.7171. Weakness will attract support while above 0.7029 and 0.7015, and only below 0.6995 would dampen the tone.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The bull wave from Monday's six-week low at 134.35 has been upgraded, offering new scope to 136.75. However, the action remains trapped in a trading range between the July 9 bear trap low at 133.30 and the July 13 peak at 137.80. That 137.80 peak would only become the focus on a sustained break above 136.75. This week's Market Profile chart highlights notable support at 135.70 and 135.30.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Breaks strongly above a seven-week falling resistance line to 1.0554, and new upside scope to 1.0640 has been produced. Thursday's surge to a six-week high drags the June 4 reaction high at 1.0574 within reach, and the sub-dividing bull wave from the June 29 reaction low at 1.0300 has two wave equality targets at 1.0570 and 1.0582 to meet. The 1.0640 objective would be opened on a clean break above 1.0574. Strong support at 1.0485 has emerged on this Market Profile chart, limiting scope for corrective weakness.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Slumps to a new six-year low at 0.7269 during Friday's Asian session, and more weakness is in store. The powerful downtrend from the May lower high at 0.8163 continues to sub-divide, and the plunge beneath 0.7300 exposes 0.7200 and 0.7165. Single print resistance at 0.7342 on the session's Market Profile chart, along with resistance at 0.7375, indicates limited upside scope.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 24, 2015 02:31 ET (06:31 GMT)

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