USD Bullish VS Most Major Currencies This Week -- Charting Forex

 
   By Jerry Tan 
 

        The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
        USD/JPY
        1st support - 122.91 (minor)
        1st resistance - 124.46 (moderate)
        2nd support - 122.53 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 124.74 (minor)
        USD/JPY (last 124.10) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance is at the 124.38-124.46 band, marked by the June 24 high and the June 17 high. A rise above 124.46 would target the June 9 high of 124.74; and then the 125.86-125.91 band, marked by the June 5 high and the June 30, 2002 high. An extension of the rise would target the May 31, 2002 high of 129.05; and then the psychological 130.00 line. Support is at Tuesday's low of 122.91. A breach would target the 55-day moving average, now at 122.53; and then the 100-day moving average, now at 121.36. An extension of the fall would target the July 8 reaction low of 120.38; and then the May 18 low of 119.22, currently near the 200-day moving average. The medium-term USD/JPY outlook is mixed as the five-week moving average is meandering sideways above the advancing 15-week moving average, while the weekly slow stochastic measure is neutral. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below 125.86. A rise above 125.86 would turn the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to the psychological 130.00 line; and then to the Jan. 31, 2002 swing high of 135.15.
        EUR/USD
        1st support - 1.0819 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 1.1081 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.0660 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 1.1215 (moderate)
        EUR/USD (last 1.0827) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the five- and 15-day moving averages are declining. Support is at the May 27 reaction low of 1.0819. A breach would target the April 21 reaction low of 1.0660, and then the April 13 reaction low of 1.0519. An extension of the fall would target 1.0457, the 12-year low hit March 16--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 1.0000 line. Resistance is at Tuesday's high of 1.1081. A breach would expose the upside to the July 10 reaction high of 1.1215, and then to the June 29 high of 1.1278. An extension of the rise would target the June 22 high of 1.1410, and then the June 18 reaction high of 1.1440, followed by the May 15 reaction high of 1.1468. The medium-term EUR/USD outlook is tilting negative as the weekly slow stochastic indicator is bearish, while the five-week moving average is falling below the 15-week moving average. A drop below 1.0819 would expose the downside to 1.0457, and then to the psychological 1.0000 line; followed by the Sept. 17, 2002 reaction low of 0.9601.
        AUD/USD
        1st support - 0.7347 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.7496 (moderate)
        2nd support - 0.7240 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.7533 (minor)
        AUD/USD (last 0.7361) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below the 0.7488-0.7496 band, marked by Wednesday's high and the July 10 high. The five- and 15-day moving averages are declining, but the daily slow stochastic indicator is at oversold levels. Support is at Wednesday's low of 0.7347. A breach would expose the downside to the May 1, 2009 low of 0.7240, and then to the psychological 0.7000 line. But a rise above 0.7496 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting the July 6 high of 0.7533, and then the July 3 high of 0.7648. An extension of the rise would target the July 1 high of 0.7738, and then the June 25 high of 0.7752. The medium-term AUD/USD outlook is negative as the five-week moving average is below the 15-week moving average and declining. The currency pair may fall to the psychological 0.7000 line; and then to the Feb. 2, 2009 reaction low of 0.6245 in the weeks ahead.
        NZD/USD
        1st support - 0.6496 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.6619 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.6192 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 0.6742 (minor)
        NZD/USD (last 0.6523) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the five- and 15-day moving averages are declining. Support is at Thursday's low of 0.6496. A breach would expose the downside to the July 13, 2009 low of 0.6192; and then the June 8, 2009 low of 0.6148. Resistance may be encountered at 0.6619, the previous base set July 7. A breach would expose the upside to Tuesday's high of 0.6742, and then to the July 10 reaction high of 0.6771. An extension of the rise would target the July 1 high of 0.6810, and then the June 29 high of 0.6880, followed by the June 25 reaction high of 0.6924. The medium-term NZD/USD outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. The currency pair may decline to the psychological 0.6000 line in the weeks ahead.
        GBP/USD
        1st support - 1.5449 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.5674 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.5416 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.5732 (minor)
        GBP/USD (last 1.5590) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the currency pair stays above Tuesday's low of 1.5449. The five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance is at Wednesday's high of 1.5674. A breach would target the July 1 high of 1.5732, and then the June 29 high of 1.5787. An extension of the rise would target the June 24 high of 1.5802; and then the 1.5909-1.5928 band, marked by the June 22 high and the June 18 high. But a drop below 1.5449 would temper the positive near-term outlook, targeting the 200-day moving average, now at 1.5416; and then the July 8 reaction low of 1.5328. An extension of the fall would target the 100-day moving average, now at 1.5280, and then the June 9 low of 1.5256, followed by the June 5 reaction low of 1.5188. The medium-term GBP/USD outlook is mixed as the weekly MACD indicator is bullish, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is bearish at overbought levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the June 18 high of 1.5928. A rise above 1.5928 would turn the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to 1.6187--the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the July 15, 2014 high of 1.7191 to the April 13 low of 1.4563.
        USD/CHF
        1st support - 0.9551 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.9718 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.9399 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.9863 (moderate)
        USD/CHF (last 0.9622) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing. Resistance is at the April 23 reaction high of 0.9718. A breach would target the April 13 reaction high of 0.9863, and then the March 19 high of 0.9982. An extension of the rise would target the March 17 high of 1.0091, and then the March 12 swing high of 1.0128. Support is at Friday's low of 0.9551. A breach would expose the downside to Tuesday's low of 0.9399, and then to the July 13 low of 0.9365. An extension of the fall would target the July 10 reaction low of 0.9329, and then the June 29 reaction low of 0.9241, followed by the 0.9152-0.9145 band, marked by the June 22 low and the June 18 low. The medium-term USD/CHF outlook is tilting positive as both the weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are now bullish, while the five-week moving average is above the 15-week moving average and advancing. A rise above 0.9863 would target the March 12 swing high of 1.0128, and then the Jan. 14 swing high of 1.0240 in the weeks ahead.
        USD/CAD
        1st support - 1.2901 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.3063 (moderate)
        2nd support - 1.2715 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.3166 (minor)
        USD/CAD (last 1.2984) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing. Resistance is at the March 9, 2009 swing high of 1.3063. A breach would target the Sept. 1, 2004 high of 1.3166; and then the Aug. 12, 2004 high of 1.3344. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.2901. A breach would expose the downside to Tuesday's low of 1.2715, and then to the July 10 reaction low of 1.2652. An extension of the fall would target the July 6 low of 1.2560, and then the July 3 low of 1.2534, followed by the July 1 low of 1.2471. The medium-term USD/CAD outlook is positive as the five-week moving average is above the 15-week moving average and advancing. A rise above 1.3063 would expose the upside to the May 18, 2004 reaction high of 1.4001 in the weeks ahead.
        Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 19, 2015 22:42 ET (02:42 GMT)

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