USD Bulls Gather Momentum; EUR in Trouble

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The weak tone extends, and minor support at 1.0954 is all that protects the July 7 low at 1.0916. The sharp setback from Monday's 1.1197 high defends last Friday's key high at 1.1216, and it was that surge to 1.1216 that turned the 1.0916 reaction low into a pending bear failure. EUR bears would move into the ascendancy on a break below 1.0916, producing a new minimum downside objective at 1.0702. Resistance at 1.1035 and 1.1070 would have to be broken just to provide respite, and only above 1.1135 would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Resistance at 123.75/123.89 has come under pressure during Tuesday's Asian session, and further gains to 124.46 have been signalled. The strong recovery from last Wednesday's seven-week low at 120.41 produced a solid bull hammer candle on the weekly chart, and the 124.38/124.46 lower highs are next in line above 123.89. Monday's Market Profile chart indicates strong support at 122.71, and only below 122.40 would concern USD bulls.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Monday's bear hammer candle has been confirmed, indicating downside scope to 1.5390. Monday's 1.5588 high marks the peak of a three-day rally from 1.5332, and loss of 1.5390 would bring the 1.5332 low back into the immediate picture, while threatening to challenge the key projected support level at 1.5289. The recovery from last week's low at 1.5332 keeps the wave structure of the advance from the June 1 higher low at 1.5172 intact, making the 1.5289 projected support level crucial. Resistance at 1.5530 would have to be regained in order to make the 1.5588 high accessible.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Edged to a six-week high at 0.9532 during Tuesday's Asian session, to extend the sub-dividing bull wave from the June 18 reaction low at 0.9151. The May 27 peak at 0.9543 is the immediate focus, and two wave equality targets at 0.9601 and 0.9626 are on course to be met. Last Friday's low at 0.9330 has been left stranded, and Monday's Market Profile chart indicates strong support at 0.9422 and 0.9405.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Monday's drop to 0.7088 suggests the key minimum upside requirement target at 0.7238 will not be met. The push lower bolsters last week's high at 0.7223, and a break below the July 7 higher low at 0.7060 would consign the 0.7223 high to bull failure status, dragging the June 29 reaction low at 0.6990 back into the picture. Resistance at 0.7148 and 0.7178 hamper scope for corrective upside risk.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Sharply rejects Monday's two-week high at 137.80, and Monday's 135.02 low is under threat. The 135 area has become pivotal support, and a push lower would damage last week's bullish engulfing candle, exposing 134.55 and 134.00. Last Thursday's marginal six-week low at 133.30 would then become accessible. Recapturing ground above 136.55 is required to lift the near-term tone.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Resistance at 1.0525 has refused to budge, and an impasse between 1.0426 and 1.0525 continues to develop on the 60-minute chart. Last Friday's high at 1.0525 marks a bull trap, which is also a point of contact of a five-week falling resistance line. Furthermore, that resistance line is preventing a wave equality target at 1.0572 from being met. Loss of 1.0426 would expose 1.0410, and should lead to further weakness to the July 6 higher low at 1.0356.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Holds onto support at 0.7383, to defend last week's six-year low at 0.7372. However, resistance at 0.7435 marks the midpoint of the current 0.7372 to 0.7499 range, and Friday's 0.7499 high is a confirmed bull failure. The 0.7372/83 lows will remain vulnerable while resistance at 0.7435 caps, threatening a broader downtrend extension to 0.7306 and 0.7254. The 0.7499 range high has protection at 0.7435 and 0.7484.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 14, 2015 02:21 ET (06:21 GMT)

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