(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to range-trade. Underpinned by broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 96.68 versus 96.25 early Tuesday) as markets await developments in Greece's negotiations with the European Union for emergency financing. USD/JPY also supported by narrower-than-expected U.S. May trade deficit of $41.87 billion (versus forecast $42.5 billion); diminished investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 5.41% to 16.09, S&P 500 closed 0.61% higher at 2,081.34 overnight) amid hopes that a resolution could still be reached to avoid a potentially disorderly exit by Greece out of the eurozone after new Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos made a strong presentation to his counterparts Tuesday; demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY upside limited by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year slipped 2.3 bps to 2.254% Tuesday); Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan May balance of payments, Japan June provisional trade statistics for 1st 20 days, Japan June bank lending, Japan June international transactions in securities; 0500 GMT Japan June economy watchers survey; 1800 GMT FOMC meeting minutes; 1900 GMT U.S. May consumer credit (forecast +$19.0 billion). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; although inside-day-range pattern completed Tuesday. Support at 121.98 (Tuesday's low), then at 121.72 (Monday's low); breach would target 121.44 (May 25 low), then 121.05 (100-day moving average) and 120.61 (May 22 low). Resistance at 122.88-122.92 (Tuesday's high-Monday's high), then at 123.19 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 123.72 (Thursday's high), then 123.99 (June 26 high), 124.38-124.46 band (June 24 high-June 17 high), 124.63 (June 10 high) and 124.74 (June 9 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting five-week low 1.0915 Tuesday. Undermined by uncertainty over Greece--Greece has five days to strike a deal with its international creditors over a new bailout program before an emergency summit of all 28 European Union members in Brussels on July 12. EUR/USD also weighed by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. But EUR/USD losses tempered by scaling down of short-euro hedges as European stocks fall (Stoxx Europe 600 closed down 1.57% Tuesday). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 1.0915 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.0887 (June 1 low), then 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low), 1.0784 (April 24 low) and 1.0658 April 21 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1059 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.1095 (Monday's high), then 1.1117-1.1122 (Friday's high-Thursday's high), 1.1171 (July 1 high), 1.1243 (June 30 high), 1.1278 (June 29 high) and 1.1347 (June 23 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-year low 0.7394 Tuesday. AUD/USD weighed by broadly firmer dollar undertone; continued meltdown in China stocks despite Beijing's efforts to calm nerves and keep prices from spiraling lower--Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.26% to 3728.19 Tuesday, and has fallen 28% from its 2015 closing high of 5166.35 reached on June 12; soft commodity and iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $2.30 Tuesday to more-than-two-month low $49.70/ton); Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD losses tempered by improved investor risk tolerance. Data focus: 0400 GMT Australia July monthly leading indicator of employment. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7394 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7240 (May 1, 2009 low), then the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7501 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7533 (Monday's high), then 0.7648-0.7656 band (Thursday's high-Thursday's high), 0.7738 (July 1 high), 0.7752 (June 25 high), 0.7771 (June 24 high) and 0.7796 (June 22 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting five-year low 0.6619 Tuesday. Undermined by broadly firmer dollar undertone; divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; soft dairy prices; contagion from weak Aussie. But NZD/USD losses tempered by improved investor risk tolerance; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.6619 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.6686 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.6714 (Monday's high), then 0.6731 (Friday's high), 0.6744 (Thursday's high), 0.6810 (July 1 high), 0.6854 (June 30 high) and 0.6880 (June 29 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-one-month low 1.5412 Tuesday. Sterling sentiment hurt by surprise 0.6% on-month drop in U.K. May manufacturing output (versus forecast +0.2%). GBP/USD also weighed by broadly firmer dollar undertone; sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD losses tempered by improved investor risk tolerance. Event focus: 1130 GMT U.K. Chancellor George Osborne presents Summer Budget. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 1.5412 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.5366 (June 10 low), then 1.5271 (100-day moving average), 1.5256 (June 9 low), 1.5219 (June 8 low) and 1.5188 (June 5 reaction low). Resistance at 1.5486 (hourly chart), then at 1.5608 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 1.5628 (Monday's high), then 1.5643 (Friday's high), 1.5732 (July 1 high), 1.5774 (June 30 high), 1.5787 (June 29 high) and 1.5802 (June 24 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting six-week high 0.9515 Tuesday. Supported by broadly firmer dollar undertone; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish; stochastics reverting to bullish mode at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 0.9515 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.9528 (200-day moving average), then 0.9545 (May 27 reaction high), 0.9598 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 reaction high). Support at 0.9418 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.9403 (Monday's low), then 0.9392 (Friday's low), 0.9337 (July 1 low), 0.9241 (June 29 low) and 0.9207 (June 23 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-month high 1.2779 Tuesday. Loonie sentiment dented by wider-than-expected Canada May trade deficit of C$3.34 billion (versus forecast C$2.5 billion). USD/CAD also supported by broadly firmer dollar undertone. But USD/CAD gains tempered by rebounding oil prices (Nymex crude hit three-month low $50.58/bbl Tuesday but was last up 52 cents at $52.85/bbl on Globex); improved investor risk tolerance. Data focus: 1330 GMT Canada May building permits (forecast -5.0% on-month); 1430 GMT EIA weekly petroleum status report. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.2779-1.2783 (Tuesday's high-March 31 reaction high); breach would expose upside to 1.2833 (March 18 swing high), then the psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high). Support at 1.2640 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.2560 (Monday's low), then 1.2534 (Friday's low), 1.2471 (July 1 low), 1.2358 (June 30 low) and 1.2302 (June 29 low).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-week low 133.48 Tuesday. Undermined by uncertainty over Greece; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 133.48 (Tuesday's low, near 100-day moving average); breach would target 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), then 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low). Resistance at 135.39 (hourly chart), then at 135.67 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 135.99 (Monday's high), then 136.85-136.90 (Friday's high-Thursday's high), 137.39 (July 1 high), 137.74 (June 30 high) and 138.07 (June 29 high).
EUR/GBP--to trade with buoyant tone. Daily chart tilting positive as stochastics in bullish mode, MACD histogram bars turning positive. Resistance at 0.7139-0.7146 band (Tuesday's high-June 30 high); breach would target 0.7168 (June 29 high), then 0.7179 (June 23 high), 0.7210-0.7213 (June 22 high-June 17 high), 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high). Support at 0.7056-0.7050 band (Tuesday's low-Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6981 (seven-and-a-half year low hit June 29), then 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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July 07, 2015 19:41 ET (23:41 GMT)
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July 07, 2015 19:41 ET (23:41 GMT)
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