(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting one-month high 124.38 Monday. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 98.01 versus 97.96 early Monday) after Fed's Bullard said he sees more than 50% probability for the U.S. central bank to tighten monetary policy in September. USD/JPY also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year rose 3.0 bps to 2.379% Monday); reduced safe-haven appeal of yen as investor risk aversion subsides amid receding fears about Greece's financial situation, signs of stabilization in China stock markets and some stronger-than-expected U.S. earnings reports; demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan June Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting minutes. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 124.38-124.46 band (Monday's high-June 17 high); breach would target 124.63 (June 10 high), then 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high). Support at 123.96-123.89 band (Monday's low-Friday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 123.71 (Thursday's low), then 123.23 (Wednesday's low), 122.91 (July 14 low), 122.00 (July 13 low) and 121.55 (July 10 low).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-three-month low 1.0809 Monday. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro-funded carry trades amid diminished investor risk aversion; increase in short-euro hedges as European stocks rise (Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 0.28% at 406.8 Monday). But euro sentiment soothed as Greece made payments to the ECB and the IMF, and opened its banks for the first time in three weeks. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.0809 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.0784 (April 24 low), then 1.0666-1.0660 band (April 22 low-April 21 low). Resistance at 1.0870 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 1.0906 (Friday's high), then 1.0962 (Thursday's high), 1.1034 (Wednesday's high) and 1.1081 (July 14 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-year low 0.7326 Monday. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; weak gold and commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 1.26% at 211.84 Monday); Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD losses tempered by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/JPY cross amid improved risk appetite. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia July RBA monetary policy meeting minutes. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.7326 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7240 (May 1, 2009 low), then the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7397 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7418 (Friday's high), then 0.7437 (Thursday's high), 0.7488 (Wednesday's high), 0.7496-0.7501 (July 10 high-July 7 high) and 0.7533 (July 6 high).
NZD/USD--to trade with bullish bias. Supported by comment from New Zealand Prime Minister John Key that the Kiwi's 25% decline to US$0.6500 over the past 12 months had been faster than expected; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion. But NZD/USD gains tempered by soft dairy prices; expectations that RBNZ will cut the cash rate by 25 bps to 3.0% this week. Data focus: 0300 GMT New Zealand June credit card statistics. Daily chart mixed as five- and 15-day moving averages declining, but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.6600-0.6601 (Monday's high-Thursday's high); breach would target 0.6723 (Wednesday's high), then 0.6742-0.6752 band (July 14 high-July 13 high), 0.6771 (July 10 high) and 0.6810 (July 1 high). Support at 0.6503-0.6496 band (Monday's low-Thursday's five-year low); breach would expose downside with no significant support until 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low), then 0.6148 (June 8, 2009 low) and the psychological 0.6000.
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting four-day low 1.5536 Monday. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment. But GBP/USD losses tempered by hawkish Bank of England monetary policy stance; diminished investor risk aversion. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. June public sector net borrowing (forecast GBP9.7 billion). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics neutral. Support at 1.5536 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5449 (July 14 low), then 1.5414 (200-day moving average), 1.5361 (July 10 low) and 1.5341 (July 9 low). Resistance at 1.5627 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.5674 (Wednesday's high), then 1.5732 (July 1 high), 1.5787 (June 29 high) and 1.5802 (June 24 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-three-month high 0.9651 this morning. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates; franc sales on rebounding EUR/CHF cross. Data focus: 0600 GMT Switzerland June trade balance. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 0.9651 (this morning high); breach would expose upside to 0.9718 (April 23 reaction high), then 0.9863 (April 13 reaction high). Support at 0.9595 (Monday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.9551 (Friday's low), then 0.9510 (Thursday's low), 0.9436 (Wednesday's low), 0.9399 (July 14 low) and 0.9365 (July 13 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting six-year high 1.3024 Monday. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment; soft oil prices (Nymex crude hit three-month low $49.92/bbl Monday, last down eight cents at $50.07/bbl on Globex); 1.0% on-month drop in Canada May wholesale trade to C$54.52 billion; dovish Bank of Canada monetary policy stance. But USD/CAD gains tempered by diminished investor risk aversion. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.3024 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high), then 1.3166 (Sept. 1, 2004 high). Support at 1.2950-1.2944 band (Monday's low-Friday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 1.2901 (Thursday's low), then 1.2719-1.2715 (Wednesday's low-July 14 low), 1.2668 (July 13 low), 1.2652 (July 9 low) and 1.2640 (July 7 low).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate. Cross supported by reduced worries about Greece. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Resistance at 135.04 (Monday's high); breach would target 135.27 (Friday's high), then 135.87 (Thursday's high), 136.37 (Wednesday's high) and 138.07 (June 29 high). Support at 134.27 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 133.72 (July 10 low), then 133.26 (July 9 low), 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate. Cross supported by receding worries about Greece. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.6976 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.6992 (Friday's high), then 0.7011 (Thursday's high), 0.7068 (Wednesday's high) and 0.7137 (July 14 high). Support at 0.6930 (Friday's seven-and-a-half year low); breach would target 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low), then 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 20, 2015 19:48 ET (23:48 GMT)
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