(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.60 versus 94.99 early Tuesday) after stronger-than-expected U.S. June Conference Board consumer confidence index of 101.4 (versus forecast 97.4). USD/JPY also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year rose 1.8 bps to 2.349% Tuesday); reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid improved risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 3.29% to 18.23; S&P 500 closed up 0.27% at 2,063.11 overnight) as markets were relatively calm even as Greece defaulted on its IMF loan repayment and its current bailout expires; demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected U.S. June ISM-Chicago PMI of 49.4 (versus forecast 50.2). USD/JPY gains also tempered by Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan 2Q Tankan survey of enterprises; 1215 GMT U.S. June ADP national employment report (forecast +220,000); 1345 GMT Markit final U.S. June manufacturing PMI; 1400 GMT U.S. May construction spending (forecast +0.5%); 1400 GMT U.S. June ISM manufacturing PMI (forecast 53.2). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish. Resistance at 122.72 (Tuesday's high), then at 123.19 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 123.99 (Friday's high), then 124.38-124.46 band (June 24 high-June 17 high), 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high). Support at 121.92 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 121.67 (55-day moving average), then 121.44 (May 25 low), 120.85 (100-day moving average) and 120.61 (May 22 low).
EUR/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; uncertainty over Greece; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. But euro sentiment soothed by eurozone June flash HCPI of +0.2% on-year, core HCPI of +0.8% on-year (matching forecasts). EUR/USD downside also limited by scaling down of short-euro hedges as European stocks fell (Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 1.26% to 381.31 Tuesday). Data focus: 0755 GMT Markit / BME final Germany June manufacturing PMI (forecast 51.9); 0800 GMT Markit eurozone final June manufacturing PMI (forecast 52.5). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 1.1111 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0950 (Monday's low), then 1.0887 (June 1 low), 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low), 1.0784 (April 24 low) and 1.0658 April 21 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1243 (Tuesday's high), then at 1.1278 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1347 (June 23 high), then 1.1410 (June 22 high), 1.1440-1.1450 band (June 18 high-May 18 high), 1.1466 (May 15 reaction high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
AUD/USD--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; improved risk sentiment. But AUD/USD gains tempered by positive dollar sentiment; soft iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $1.20 Tuesday to $59.30/ton). China-sensitive Aussie vulnerable to 0100 GMT China June CFLP manufacturing PMI (forecast 50.3), non-manufacturing PMI; 0135 GMT Nikkei Japan June manufacturing PMI; 0145 GMT HSBC final China June manufacturing PMI. Other data: 0130 GMT Australia May building approvals (forecast +1.0%); 0630 GMT Australia June commodity price index. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics turning bullish. Resistance at 0.7724 (Tuesday's high), then at 0.7740 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.7752 (Thursday's high), then 0.7771 (June 24 high), 0.7796 (June 22 high), 0.7809 (June 19 high), 0.7848 (June 18 high) and 0.7934 (May 20 high). Support at 0.7657 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7584 (Monday's low), then 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate after hitting five-year low 0.6745 Tuesday. Undermined by divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; soft dairy prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; positive dollar sentiment. But NZD/USD downside limited by improved risk sentiment. Data focus: 1200 GMT NZ GlobalDairyTrade auction. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.6745 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.6854 (Tuesday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average), then at 0.6880 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.6909 (Friday's high), then 0.6924 (Thursday's high), 0.6938 (June 19 high), 0.6994 (June 18 high) and 0.7010 (June 17 high).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment. But sterling sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected U.K. 1Q final estimate GDP growth of +2.9% on-year (versus forecast +2.5% on-year). GBP/USD losses also tempered by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. June CIPS / Markit manufacturing PMI (forecast 52.3); 0930 GMT Bank of England's Financial Stability Report. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish. Support at 1.5664 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.5623 (June 17 low), then 1.5539 (June 16 low), 1.5485 (June 15 low), 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low). Resistance at 1.5774 (Tuesday's high), then at 1.5787 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.5802 (June 24 high), then 1.5831 (June 23 high), 1.5909 (June 22 high), 1.5928 (June 18 high), 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high) and 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high).
USD/CHF--to trade in higher range. Swissie sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected Switzerland June KOF economic barometer of 89.7 (versus forecast 93.5). USD/CHF also supported by positive dollar sentiment; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates. Data focus: 0730 GMT Switzerland June PPI. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics neutral. Resistance at 0.9381 (Tuesday's high), then at 0.9423-0.9429 band (Monday's high-June 8 high); breach would expose upside to 0.9503 (June 5 high), then 0.9514 (May 28 high) and 0.9529 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.9241 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.9207 (June 23 low), then 0.9152-0.9145 band (June 22 low-June 18 low), 0.9108 (May 15 low), 0.9073-0.9065 band (May 14 low-May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low).
USD/CAD--to trade in higher range. Loonie sentiment dented by surprise 0.1% on-month contraction in Canada April GDP growth (versus forecast +0.1% on-month). USD/CAD also supported by positive dollar sentiment. But USD/CAD gains tempered by firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.14 at $59.47/bbl Tuesday). Data focus: 1430 GMT EIA weekly petroleum status report. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.2499 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2562-1.2569 band (June 5 high-April 15 high), then 1.2645 (April 13 high) and 1.2667 (April 10 reaction high). Support at 1.2412 (hourly chart), then at 1.2358 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2302 (Monday's low), then 1.2273 (June 24 low), 1.2215-1.2210 (June 22 low-June 19 low), 1.2124 (June 18 low) and 1.1997 (May 18 low, near 200-day moving average).
EUR/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by ongoing Greece crisis; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 135.84 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 133.68 (Monday's low), then 133.51 (100-day moving average), 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low). Resistance at 137.74 (Tuesday's high), then at 138.07 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 138.67 (Friday's high), then 138.87 (Thursday's high), 139.18 (June 24 high), 140.01 (June 23 high) and 140.63-140.67 (June 22 high-June 18 high).
EUR/GBP--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by festering Greece crisis. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics rising from oversold levels. Support at 0.7072 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6981 (Monday's seven-and-a-half year low), then 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7146 (Tuesday's high), then at 0.7168 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.7179 (June 23 high), then 0.7210-0.7213 (June 22 high-June 17 high), 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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June 30, 2015 19:47 ET (23:47 GMT)
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June 30, 2015 19:47 ET (23:47 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD Rebounds Amid Greece Uncertainty; U.S. ISM PMI Eyed -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.