USD Strengthens; AUD/USD to Fall Sharply

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The setback from Monday's 1.1279 high has scope to extend to its 1.618 Fibonacci extension target at 1.1012. Furthermore, the week's low at 1.0950 is also vulnerable, because the downward breach of 1.1049 on Monday consigned the June 18 reaction high at 1.1440 to bull failure status, signalling additional downside scope to the May 27 low at 1.0819. Resistance at 1.1136 would have to be reclaimed just to provide respite, opening 1.1191.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The strong bounce from Tuesday's five-week low at 121.93 has its sights set on 123.90 and the recent 124.38/124.46 highs. The push higher suggests the broader bear wave from the June 5 peak at 125.86 will not meet either of the two key downside objectives at 121.02 and 120.46, and the 124.38/124.46 lower highs have become a pivotal area. Weakness will attract support while above 122.50, which has protection at 122.90 and 122.79.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Wednesday's push to a two-week low at 1.5590 has allowance to extend to the 1.5528 area. The decisive push below 1.5635 confirmed a lower high at 1.5787, to put further distance from the June 18 peak at 1.5930 and generate a minimum downside objective at 1.5528. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 1.5172 to 1.5930 rally also lies near the 1.55 level, limiting scope for downside risk. Solid resistance at 1.5680 on this week's Market Profile chart hampers upside scope.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: The decisive push to the upside on Wednesday opens the 0.95 level and the May 27 peak at 0.9543. Wednesday's push and session close above 0.9435 extends the recovery from the June 18 reaction low at 0.9151, and the slightly broader picture indicates upside scope to 0.9625 should be allowed for. Congestive support between 0.9375 and 0.9390 exists on this week's Market Profile chart, which has protection at 0.9415.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Consolidates the strong bounce from Monday's seven-and-a-half year low at 0.6990. Support emerged at Wednesday's 0.7065 low to prevent a minimum downside requirement target at 0.7042, putting the onus on bulls to challenge resistance at 0.7127. However, resistance at 0.7100 would have to be broken first, in order to re-open Wednesday's 0.7127 high. The 0.7065 low has become a pivotal level, because a push below 0.7065 would upgrade the bear wave from this week's 0.7166 high, generating a new minimum downside objective at 0.7025.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The bear wave from Monday's 138.10 high is at risk of extending below Tuesday's 135.88 low. The sharp setback from Wednesday's high at 137.42 suggests a bear pennant continuation pattern is forming on the 60-minute chart, and a break below 135.88 would generate two downside objectives at 135.20 and 134.40. Resistance at 136.90 and 137.42 would have to be broken in order to negate the bearish outlook, opening the week's high at 138.10.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Having secured a foothold above 1.04, the 1.05 level is now the focus. Monday's four-week low at 1.0300 is a distant memory, and EUR bulls are within reach of a four-week falling resistance line at 1.0537. Weakness will attract support while above 1.0410, hampering the scope for weakness.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: A push into eleven-week lows below 0.7587 is expected during the coming sessions, following Wednesday's bearish outside day. The high of the bearish outside day at 0.7739 came an inch shy of the important 0.7740 minimum upside objective, and minor support at 0.7622 is all that stands in front of Monday's 0.7587 low. The Apr. 2 reaction low at 0.7533 will then become exposed, while producing a new minimum downside requirement target at 0.7481. Resistance at 0.7676 and 0.7706 guard the 0.7739 high.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        This Technical Analysis column will be discontinued in the not-too-distant future. I would like to thank everyone for their valued support over the past six years.
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 02, 2015 02:31 ET (06:31 GMT)

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