(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--possible uptrend. USD/CNY could confirm a bullish technical stance on the daily chart if it ends Thursday above 6.2100 and thus inside the Bollinger uptrend channel. The yuan has slipped this week but only by 0.1% against the U.S. dollar, a paltry move especially compared to China stocks. The yuan may be holding its ground on expectations that it will soon be included in the IMF's basket of reserve currencies later this year, which could boost demand for the yuan and thereby increase its value significantly. Stocks in China are still falling, though by a lesser extent, after the authorities banned major shareholders who own more than 5% of a company's stock from selling for six months. The Shanghai composite stock index is down 1.2% from an earlier drop of 3.5%. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2075 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.2049 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.2033 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 6.2100 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2125 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2355 (weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/TWD--consolidation. Consolidation at a lower level is likely for USD/TWD after the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting revealed that its first interest rate increase may be delayed due to global financial market turmoil. The U.S. dollar index fell overnight as a result, weighing on most USD/Asia currency pairs Thursday. USD/TWD may hence trade in a range of 31.050-31.220, with a chance to drop into the Bollinger downtrend channel that begins at 31.050 as U.S. dollar bullishness subsides. The pricing of the benchmark 1-month nondeliverable forward contract in the offshore market has dropped to a discount of 0.040 from par yesterday, indicating that punters are bearish on the greenback. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.050 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 31.030 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 30.960 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.130 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 31.220 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 31.300 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/KRW--uptrend. USD/KRW opens lower Thursday following a hint that the U.S. Federal Reserve might consider delaying an interest rate increase in the face of troubled global financial markets. The greenback is lower across Asia but it still has a bullish technical bias on the USD/KRW daily chart--contingent on a Thursday close above the 1,128 base of the Bollinger uptrend channel. If this technical barrier holds, USD/KRW might keep rallying in the near term. Risk appetite is still fragile even as China stocks attempt to turn around after the authorities announced yet new measures to halt the stock market collapse. South Korea's Kospi is down 0.6% but has rebounded off its 4-month low notched earlier. The Bank of Korea kept interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting earlier Thursday, but downgraded its growth outlook to 2.8% from its previous estimate of 3.1%. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,130 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,128 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,120 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,138 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,140 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--consolidation lower. USD/SGD has dropped out of the Bollinger uptrend channel and may now consolidate lower toward the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone at 1.3457. The U.S. dollar slipped Thursday on signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve is willing to delay raising interest rates if global financial markets are badly impacted by a possible Greek exit from the eurozone. The safe haven U.S. dollar is also losing steam as China stocks attempt to rebound--the Shanghai composite index is now up 1.0% from an earlier 3.5% drop--on the latest round of government intervention measures. If risk appetite truly recovers, traders will trim long-USD positions and fade back into riskier emerging market currencies. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3500 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3457 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 1.3443 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 1.3510 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3559 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1.3600 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--uptrend. USD/MYR has eased from its recent 16.5-year high but is still inside the daily Bollinger uptrend channel, keeping alive the possibility of further ringgit weakness versus the U.S. dollar. If USD/MYR ends Thursday above 3.7900 the bullish chart signal will remain in play. The U.S. dollar is generally softer after the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting showed apprehension to raise interest rates if global financial markets are in turmoil due to Greece. But the ringgit is still facing negative domestic factors stemming from allegations of political corruption, and this could be a supportive factor for USD/MYR. Malaysia's central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting later today, and might make reassuring comments on recent ringgit weakness. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.8000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 3.7900 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.7640 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 3.8170 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.8200 (psychological resistance), before 3.8500 (psychological resistance).
USD/THB--uptrend. USD/THB has come down from the 5.5-year high of 34.07 notched Wednesday but a bullish technical bias remains. The pair is still inside the Bollinger uptrend channel--contingent on a Thursday close above 33.87--that suggests baht weakness versus the U.S. dollar in the short-term. The daily and weekly USD/THB charts are still both bullish, suggesting that the pair could reach 34.31--the top of the weekly Bollinger uptrend channel--before meeting stronger resistance. The greenback has backtracked across the board after the U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC minutes showed apprehension in raising interest rates in an unstable global financial market. The U.S. dollar may however be supported on dips as risk appetite is still fragile--though improving slightly as China stocks attempt a rebound on the back of fresh government intervention measures to halt panic selling. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 33.87 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 33.76 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 33.65 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 33.97 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 34.00 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 34.07 (5.5-year high), before 34.20 (psychological resistance).
USD/PHP--consolidation. USD/PHP is consolidating lower after falling out of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel on broad U.S. dollar weakness triggered by the U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC minutes released Wednesday. The greenback has retreated on hints that a U.S. interest rate increase may be delayed if global financial markets are in turmoil--possibly due to Greece. The USD/PHP pair may now tread water in a range of 45.06-45.18 defined by the respective entrances of the Bollinger downtrend and uptrend channels. If China stocks manage to stay up Thursday-- from an earlier loss of 3.5%--risk appetite might improve and hence weigh the safe haven U.S. dollar lower. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is 45.12 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 45.06 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 45.18 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.24 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 45.32 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--consolidation. USD/IDR is likely to fall out of the Bollinger uptrend channel and then consolidate lower as bullish-USD bets are pared on a slightly cautious tone seen in the U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC minutes released Wednesday. The dollar has subsided in general but will find support at 13,300 where the Bollinger downtrend channel entrance awaits. Risk appetite is tentatively returning as markets anxiously watch China stocks stage a rebound. If the latest round of intervention measures by the Chinese authorities are successful, investors might flock back into riskier emerging market currencies such as the rupiah. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,320 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 13,300 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 13,270 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,350 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 13,370 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,440 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 08, 2015 23:16 ET (03:16 GMT)
USD/INR--possible downtrend. A bearish USD/INR technical bias could return with the broad pullback of the U.S. dollar. Bullish-USD bets have been pared after the U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC minutes released Wednesday revealed a reluctance to raise interest rates if there is instability in global financial markets. The USD/INR Bollinger downtrend channel could come back into effect if the pair ends Thursday below 63.35. This would increase the chances for a break of the 63.15 base of the daily Ichimoku Cloud support, which might accelerate the rupee's gains versus the U.S. dollar in the near term. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.35 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.15 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 63.10 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.60 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 63.86 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance and daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 08, 2015 23:16 ET (03:16 GMT)
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