(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation. The daily USD/CNY chart has temporarily lost its short-term bearish bias with Thursday's rally. But overnight U.S. dollar weakness - due to below-expectations U.S. jobs data - may lead the USD/CNY pair back into the daily Bollinger downtrend channel at 6.2036. The yuan has been relatively stable even as China stock markets continue to slide. Hopes for the IMF's inclusion of the yuan in its basket of reserve currencies later this year may be helping to buoy the currency. On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed 3.5% lower - despite the slew of stimulus and support measures unleashed by the authorities this week - and resumed a technical downtrend, also bringing stocks deeper into bearish territory. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2036 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 6.2033 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 6.2008 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 6.2064 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 6.2092 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2120 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/TWD--consolidation. USD/TWD is likely to subside back into the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone following a mild U.S. dollar selloff Thursday on weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which might make a September interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve less likely. The USD/TWD pair lacks technical momentum unless it manages to break out of a range of 31.040-31.240 defined by the respective entrances of the Bollinger downtrend and uptrend channels. U.S. job growth came in slower than expected Thursday, while weekly jobless claims rose. Even though the headline unemployment rate fell to 5.3% from 5.5%, a lower labor-participation rate mitigated the otherwise positive reading. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.140 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 31.100 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 31.040 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.240 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 31.330 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/KRW--consolidation lower. USD/KRW has dropped out of the Bollinger uptrend channel following overnight U.S. dollar weakness inspired by a below-expectations U.S. jobs report. If USD/KRW ends Friday below 1,120 it would nullify the short-term bullish technical signal that appeared Thursday. The pair could then consolidate in a lower range of 1,107-1,120. Bullish-U.S. dollar bets are being pared after Thursday's U.S. non-farm payrolls came in slightly worse than expected, while last month's number was revised lower. Adding to the less-optimistic employment outlook, weekly jobless claims rose, and labor participation rate fell to take the headline unemployment rate lower. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,114 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 1,110 (round-figure trading barrier),before 1,107 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1,120 (round-figure trading barrier and entrance of Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1,127 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,130 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--consolidation. USD/SGD fell overnight, negating the Bollinger uptrend channel, as bullishness for the U.S. dollar diminished after a weaker-than-forecast U.S. jobs report. Fewer jobs were added in June, while wage growth was non-existent, casting doubt that the economy is robust enough for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year. USD/SGD could now meander in a lower consolidation range of 1.3373-1.3496 demarcated by the respective entrances of the daily Bollinger downtrend and uptrend channels. A break of this range is required to trigger the return of technical momentum. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3439 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 1.3400 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3373 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel and base of Ichimoku Cloud support zone). Immediate resistance is at 1.3496 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3500 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3522 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
USD/MYR--consolidation lower. The bullish signal which appeared on the daily USD/MYR chart has been extinguished by weak U.S. jobs data released overnight. The U.S. dollar is broadly lower as traders pare bets that the data would have reinforced views for a U.S. interest rate hike in September. The ringgit is thus stronger, but further gains may be limited by the USD/MYR chart support at 3.7340. Fundamental factors may also crimp the ringgit's strength - allegations of corruption at the highest level of government in Malaysia may spark deeper political instability that might cause investors to lose confidence. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.7510 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 3.7340 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 3.7200 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 3.7680 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.7850 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.8000 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/THB--consolidation. USD/THB has lost technical momentum with Thursday's lower closing that took it out of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel. The U.S. dollar may subside further across the board following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data released overnight, which nullifies the strong U.S. economic data seen Wednesday. Fewer than expected U.S. jobs were added in June, while wage growth stagnated, casting doubt on whether the Federal Reserve is still on track toward raising interest rates in September. Looking ahead, the Greek referendum this weekend could be the next catalyst for currency volatility; if Greece votes against bailout measures, the euro could collapse and thereby send the U.S. dollar index soaring. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 33.71 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 33.64 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 33.58 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 33.78 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 33.84 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 34.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/PHP--consolidation lower. USD/PHP is likely to ease toward the lower end of its consolidation range of 44.96-45.18 after Thursday's weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Fewer jobs were added in June, while wage growth was stagnant and labor participation fell. The disappointing jobs data makes it seem less likely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. U.S. Treasury yields slipped a tad, reflecting a less hawkish view from investors, and adding to bearish-USD pressure. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 45.07 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 44.96 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 45.18 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.20 (psychological resistance), before 45.28 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--consolidation. USD/IDR is likely to slip back down from Thursday's mild rally as the U.S. dollar fell overnight on disappointing U.S. jobs data. The weakness in employment data could deter the U.S. Federal Reserve from raising interest rates - a negative for the greenback but a positive for high-yielding currencies such as the rupiah. Investors may pile back into the carry trade - which entails borrowing cheaply in U.S. dollars to buy higher-yield emerging market assets - if they believe U.S. interest rates will stay low for longer. USD/IDR may hence slip toward the bottom of its current consolidation range of 13,290-13,350. If the pair ends Friday below 13,290, the Bollinger downtrend channel will be triggered, which could motivate U.S. dollar selling for a short-term target of 13,110. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,320 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 13,290 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 13,260 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,350 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 13,380 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and June's 17-year high), before 13,500 (psychological resistance).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 02, 2015 21:25 ET (01:25 GMT)
USD/INR--downtrend. USD/INR may have ended its technical chart impasse with Thursday's drop into the daily Bollinger downtrend channel. A late USD/INR selloff, which saw the rupee gain 0.4% versus the U.S. unit, has triggered a bearish-USD tone on the daily chart. Coupled with the weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data released overnight, which makes a U.S. interest rate hike in September seem less likely, USD/INR may fall further Friday, possibly to break the 63.15 base of the Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone. If USD/INR ends Friday below 63.15, expect more rupee strength versus the U.S. dollar in the short-term. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.19 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.15 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 63.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.44 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.70 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 63.71 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 02, 2015 21:25 ET (01:25 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD/Asia Sinks on U.S. Jobs Data -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.