The Singapore's Q2 GDP showed a deeper contraction of -4.6% QoQ SAAR (+1.7%
YoY) over previous quarter which is well below forecasts at 0.9%. The fall
reversed a 4.2% gain in Q1.
This Q2 contraction was mainly driven by a 14% QoQ SAAR decline in manufacturing output - led by the biomedical manufacturing (which surged in Q1) and transport engineering clusters.
The soft print reflects the sudden stop in US growth momentum in Q1 which was distorted heavily by bad weather and the West Coast port strike - which disrupted supply chains and the flow of US bound shipments from Asia until late Q2.
Anticipating a similarly weak final Q2 GDP outturn, we lower our 2015 and 2016 full year growth forecasts by 1.4 pp and 50 bps to 2.0% and 2.5% respectively.
Delving into the details, the contraction in GDP was also driven by a 14.0% QoQ SAAR drop in manufacturing output (Q1 15: 0.4%, Q4 14: -2.5%), consistent with weak IP prints for the first two months of Q2.
Services output also contracted 2.6% QoQ SAAR on the back of slower expansion of activity in the commerce and retail trade as well as a slump in real estate transactions. Indeed, media reports have indicated that the number of real estate agents had fallen by around 2,000 in Q1 this year.
Construction output also shrank marginally (-0.2% QoQ SAAR), following robust growth of 8.3% QoQ SAAR in Q1.
Source : FXPrimus
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This Q2 contraction was mainly driven by a 14% QoQ SAAR decline in manufacturing output - led by the biomedical manufacturing (which surged in Q1) and transport engineering clusters.
The soft print reflects the sudden stop in US growth momentum in Q1 which was distorted heavily by bad weather and the West Coast port strike - which disrupted supply chains and the flow of US bound shipments from Asia until late Q2.
Anticipating a similarly weak final Q2 GDP outturn, we lower our 2015 and 2016 full year growth forecasts by 1.4 pp and 50 bps to 2.0% and 2.5% respectively.
Delving into the details, the contraction in GDP was also driven by a 14.0% QoQ SAAR drop in manufacturing output (Q1 15: 0.4%, Q4 14: -2.5%), consistent with weak IP prints for the first two months of Q2.
Services output also contracted 2.6% QoQ SAAR on the back of slower expansion of activity in the commerce and retail trade as well as a slump in real estate transactions. Indeed, media reports have indicated that the number of real estate agents had fallen by around 2,000 in Q1 this year.
Construction output also shrank marginally (-0.2% QoQ SAAR), following robust growth of 8.3% QoQ SAAR in Q1.
Source : FXPrimus
#FX
#Forex
#SaleForex
#WhatHinders
#Singapore_Q2
#GDPGrowth
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