(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades as risk sentiment improves after Greece's submission of new reform proposals that appear to be closer to creditor demands on VAT and pensions, raising hopes for positive outcome at Sunday's summit of European Union members in Brussels; rebound in China stocks Thursday. USD/JPY also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year rose 11.1 bps to 2.317% Thursday); ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD sentiment dented by more-than-expected 297,000 U.S. jobless Claims in week ended July 4 (versus forecast 275,000). USD/JPY gains also tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan June corporate goods price index; 0500 GMT Japan June consumer confidence survey; 1400 GMT U.S. May wholesale trade (forecast +0.4%). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics turning bullish near oversold levels. Resistance at 122.57 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 122.88-122.92 (Tuesday's high-Monday's high), then 123.19 (July 3 high), 123.72 (July 2 high) and 123.99 (June 26 high). Support at 121.17 (hourly chart), then at 120.44-120.38 band (Thursday's low-Wednesday's low); breach would target psychological 120.00 line, then 119.22 (May 18 low) and 118.86 (May 14 reaction low).
EUR/USD--to trade with bullish bias. Euro sentiment boosted after Greece submitted new reform proposals that appear to be closer to creditor demands on VAT and pensions, raising hopes that impasse between Greece and its international creditors could be lifted at Sunday's summit of European Union members in Brussels. EUR/USD also supported by euro demand on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But EUR/USD gains tempered by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; increase in short-euro hedges as European stocks advance (Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 2.19% at 381.06 Thursday); euro-funded carry trades amid receding risk aversion. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish near oversold levels. Resistance at 1.1123 (Thursday's high); breach would target 1.1171 (July 1 high), then 1.1243 (June 30 high), 1.1278 (June 29 high) and 1.1347 (June 23 high). Support at 1.0989 (Thursday's low), then at 1.0972 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0915 (Tuesday's low), then 1.0887 (June 1 low), 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low), 1.0784 (April 24 low) and 1.0658 April 21 reaction low).
AUD/USD--to trade with bullish bias. Supported by improved risk sentiment; firmer commodity and iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron rebounded $4.20 Thursday to $48.30/ton); lower-than-expected Australia June unemployment rate of 6.0% (versus forecast 6.1%) & 7,300 increase in net jobs. But AUD/USD gains tempered by Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. Aussie vulnerable to movements in China stocks. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia May housing finance approvals. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.7491-0.7501 band (Thursday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7533 (Monday's high), then 0.7648-0.7656 band (July 2 high-July 2 high), 0.7738 (July 1 high), 0.7752 (June 25 high) and 0.7771 (June 24 high). Support at 0.7390 (Thursday's low); breach would target 0.7368 (Wednesday's six-year low), then 0.7240 (May 1, 2009 low) and psychological 0.7000 line.
NZD/USD--to trade with bullish bias. Supported by improved risk sentiment; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD gains tempered by divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; soft dairy prices; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish. Resistance at 0.6771 (this morning high); breach would target 0.6810 (July 1 high), then 0.6854 (June 30 high), 0.6880 (June 29 high) and 0.6924 (June 25 reaction high). Support at 0.6697 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6619 (Tuesday's five-year low), then 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low) and 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low).
GBP/USD--to trade with risks skewed higher. Bank of England on Thursday kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% as widely anticipated. GBP/USD supported by improved risk sentiment. But GBP/USD gains tempered by sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. May global goods trade balance (forecast GBP9.8 billion deficit). Daily chart still negative-biased as five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels, inside-day-range pattern completed Thursday. Resistance at 1.5420 (Thursday's high); breach would target 1.5465 (Wednesday's high), then 1.5608 (Tuesday's high), 1.5628 (Monday's high), 1.5643 (July 3 high) and 1.5732 (July 1 high). Support at 1.5341 (Thursday's low), then at 1.5328 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5269 (100-day moving average), then 1.5256 (June 9 low), 1.5219 (June 8 low) and 1.5188 (June 5 reaction low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with buoyant tone. Supported by franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels. Resistance at 0.9517 (Thursday's high, near 200-day moving average); breach would target 0.9545 (May 27 reaction high), then 0.9598 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 reaction high). Support at 0.9419 (Thursday's low), then at 0.9403 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 0.9392 (July 3 low), then 0.9337 (July 1 low), 0.9241 (June 29 low) and 0.9207 (June 23 low).
USD/CAD--to trade with risks skewed lower. Loonie sentiment boosted by more-than-expected 202,818 Canada June housing starts (versus forecast 190,000). USD/CAD also weighed by firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.13 at $52.78/bbl Thursday); improved risk sentiment. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada June jobless rate (forecast 6.9%) & net jobs change (forecast -10,000). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages advancing; but stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.2662 (Thursday's low), then at 1.2640 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2560 (Monday's low), then 1.2534 (July 3 low), 1.2471 (July 1 low), 1.2358 (June 30 low) and 1.2302 (June 29 low). Resistance at 1.2748 (Thursday's high), then at 1.2768 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.2779-1.2783 (Tuesday's high-March 31 reaction high), then 1.2833 (March 18 swing high), psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high).
EUR/JPY--to trade with bullish bias. Supported by reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid improved risk sentiment. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Resistance at 135.02 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 135.67 (Tuesday's high), then 135.99 (Monday's high), 136.85-136.90 (July 3 high-July 2 high), 137.39 (July 1 high) and 137.74 (June 30 high). Support at 133.26 (Thursday's low, matching Wednesday's low); breach would target 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), then 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low).
EUR/GBP--to trade with bullish bias. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average rising above 15-day moving average. Resistance at 0.7223 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7250 (June 16 high), then 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high). Support at 0.7156 (Thursday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 0.7102 (Wednesday's low), then 0.7056-0.7050 band (Tuesday's low-Monday's low), 0.6981 (seven-and-a-half year low hit June 29), 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 09, 2015 19:25 ET (23:25 GMT)
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