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| © Rogelio V. Solis, AP |
Top takeaways from the Houston GOP debate:
Rubio takes on the front-runner
Rubio, a Florida senator, has unquestionably emerged as the preferred candidate of Republican office-holders in recent days, with new endorsements being announced daily. So far, though, that's only translated to two runner-up finishes to Trump in the most recent contests, which followed a third-place and fifth-place in Iowa and New Hampshire.
So what would his strategy be in this final debate before 11 states weigh in on the GOP race Tuesday? The answer was clear early on Thursday night.
Rubio hammered Trump for hiring illegal workers from Poland for his company, slammed him as someone who would be "selling watches in Manhattan" if it weren't for an inheritance and blasted the New York billionaire for his lack of specificity on health care. In that exchange, Rubio even borrowed an attack Chris Christie had used against him at a previous debate.
"Now he's repeating himself," Rubio said to Trump to cheers.
"I see him repeat himself every night," Rubio said. "He says five things: everyone's dumb, he's gonna make America great again, we're going to win, win win, he's winning in the polls, and the lines around the state." (The last was a reference to health care policy — more on that below.)
It will almost certainly go down as a win for Rubio and perhaps his best debate of the campaign. The question, though, is will it matter? Trump's base of support has proven durable, and he leads in polls in most of the Super Tuesday states. A Quinnipiac poll even shows Trump with a large lead over Rubio in his home state of Florida, which hosts a pivotal primary on March 15. And after all, the talking point attack line worked well for Christie on the debate stage, but four days later, he was out of the race.
Cruz takes his shots, but did Rubio box him out?
Cruz and Rubio have been tightly bunched in the last two contests, with the Florida senator edging out his Texas colleague for second in both South Carolina and Nevada. It's clear they're battling to become the Trump alternative in a one-on-one race, and in recent debates, they've often battled each other.
Rubio, one school of thought went, might opt to challenge Cruz more aggressively than Trump on Thursday night, with the goal of knocking him out before turning to the front-runner later in the campaign. Instead, Rubio went after Trump (see above), which, particularly early in the debate, left Cruz largely in the position of either "me too"-ing Rubio's headlong charges, or standing on the outside looking in on some exchanges. Later, Cruz got plenty of shots in on Trump himself, though many of them were attacks that have been leveled before and have yet to puncture the New York billionaire, such as his past donations to Democratic politicians.
All told, by focusing on Trump rather than Cruz, Rubio could accomplish the same thing as if he went after the Texas senator directly. If enough Republicans decide Rubio, not Cruz, is the best person to deny Trump the nomination, the Texas senator may soon find himself marginalized.
That said, as he's quick to point out, he remains the only candidate who has beaten Trump in a nominating contest — and his home state of Texas is the biggest prize on Tuesday.
Policy is not Trump's strong suit
Trump's appeal has never been based on his mastery of policy. Yes, his tough stance on illegal immigration has been key to his success, but at its core, the Trump phenomenon has been his resonance as an outsider and a tell-it-like-is persona that strikes a chord with many voters. And so far, the lack of details hasn't been a hindrance. Quite the opposite — he's dominated polls and won three of the first four contests handily.
But Thursday night showed that if Republican voters ultimately home in on a policy debate, it could pose problems. In the health care exchange, it wasn't just Rubio pressing him for details, but also the moderators. When asked if he'd like to add any specifics about his health care policy beyond removing barriers to allow insurers to compete across state liines, Trump said, "No, there's nothing to add."
When asked how he would pay for his tax cut of $10 trillion over 10 years, he cited eliminating the Department of Education and rolling back environmental protections. When Wolf Blitzer noted that would only trim a fraction of the overall cost of the deficit, Trump was only able to offer that he would eliminate "waste, fraud and abuse."
The voters have thus far not cared when Trump's proposals seemed unrealistic or not fully formed, but it made for some awkward debate moments. We'll see if it makes for awkward voting moments as well.
The tax problem for Trump
Mitt Romney raised the issue of Trump's tax returns this week, and it may prove to be one that lingers. When asked about releasing his returns, Trump said: "I will absolutely give my return, but I'm being audited now for two or three years, so I can't do it until the audit is finished, obviously. And I think people would understand that."
But will they? Romney, who faced his own questions about tax returns in the 2012 race, suggested they might produce a "bombshell." Rubio and Cruz both said they would be releasing documents in the next few days. Cruz said Trump doesn't want to release his returns "because presumably there's something in there that is bad."
Carson and Kasich from way downtown
It's not easy being the fourth and fifth candidates in a race that has become dominated by just three, and John Kasich and Ben Carson demonstrated that Thursday night. Kasich stuck to policy rather than engage in the slugfest that erupted between Trump, Rubio and Cruz.
To the Ohio governor's credit, he provided a contrast in approach to the race leaders and is banking on that boosting him enough in Midwestern states, including, of course, his home state of Ohio, to give him the rationale to continue. Odds are long.
Carson, meanwhile, complained about his speaking time, which he's done before, as he acknowledged.
"Well first of all, people say that I whine a lot because I don't get time," he said. "I'm going to whine because I didn't get asked about taxes, I didn't get asked about Israel."
Say what you want, though, about Carson: When he did get time, he managed to make it memorable. For instance, take when he discussed filling a Supreme Court vacancy. He said he'd look at their past, the "kind of judgments" they've previously made, and, in sum: "the fruit salad of their life is what I will look at."
No doubt the first time "fruit salad" was trending on social media this campaign season.
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