Midwest Blizzard

Winter Storm Kayla to bring heavy snow, blizzard conditions to Rockies, Plains, upper Midwest - Blizzard watches are now in effect for parts of four states in advance of Winter Storm Kayla which will bring heavy snow and strong winds to parts of the Plains and Midwest to start the week, leading to major travel disruption. Kayla will initially bring snow and gusty winds from the mountains of Southern California into the Rockies Sunday into Monday.
The blizzard watches include eastern Nebraska, southeast South Dakota, northern, central, and western Iowa and southern Minnesota, including Omaha, Nebraska, Des Moines, Iowa and Rochester, Minnesota. A larger swath of states from the Southwest into the western Great Lakes has been placed under winter storm warnings, watches and advisories by the National Weather Service.

A southward plunge in the jet stream this weekend will trigger the development of low pressure east of the Rockies by later Monday. With the low pressure system forecast to rapidly intensify, wrapping moisture into cold air to its north, a swath of heavy snow and strong winds is forecast to develop north and northwest of the track of the surface low. This storm comes five years after the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011 hammered much of the Plains and Midwest. However, the areas with the greatest potential for seeing the most snow from Kayla will likely be north and west of the heaviest axis of snow in the 2011 snowstorm.

Impacts: How Much Snow, Wind?
At this point, parts of the central and southern Rockies, central Plains, Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes have the greatest probability to see the most significant snow from Kayla.
However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact placement of the snow swath from the Rockies to the northern Great Lakes, which will depend on the exact track of the low pressure system associated with Kayla.

Small adjustments of the snow swath north or south could mean significant changes in the snowfall forecasts for millions in the Midwest. The southern side of the snow swath is particularly uncertain. Some cities, including Chicago and Kansas City, may see little to no snowfall at all as forecast guidance has trended farther north with the axis of heaviest snow.

For now, here is our latest snowfall outlook:
Highest chance of at least 6 to 12 inches of snow: Southern California mountains, southern Utah, Arizona's Mogollon Rim, Colorado's Plains and Rockies, Sangre de Cristos of New Mexico, western and northern Kansas, southern and eastern Nebraska, western, central, northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, most of Wisconsin except southeast corner, northern Michigan including the Upper Peninsula.