Immediate Range Larger Range
USD/JPY 101.81-102.26 101.42-102.57
EUR/USD 1.3865-1.3889 1.3840-1.3906
AUD/USD 0.9250-0.9316 0.9200-0.9377
NZD/USD 0.8645-0.8694 0.8591-0.8706
GBP/USD 1.6852-1.6896 1.6820-1.6918
USD/CHF 0.8760-0.8781 0.8739-0.8850
USD/CAD 1.0944-1.0988 1.0933-1.1004
EUR/JPY 141.29-141.80 141.13-142.47
EUR/GBP 0.8206-0.8237 0.8182-0.8268
(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--To trade in higher range. Liquidity thin in Asia as financial markets in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea are shut Tuesday for public holidays. USD/JPY underpinned by yen-funded carry trades on positive investor risk appetite (S&P 500 closed 0.19% higher overnight at 1,884.66) as stronger-than-expected rise in U.S. ISM nonmanufacturing PMI to 55.2 in April from 53.1 in March (versus 54.1 forecast) outweighed disappointing China factory data (final April HSBC China manufacturing PMI came in at 48.1 versus preliminary reading of 48.3) and violence in Ukraine. USD/JPY also supported by final Markit U.S. April services PMI coming in at 55.0 versus flash estimate of 54.2; rise in U.S. Conference Board employment trends index to 118 in April from upwardly revised 117.77 in March (first reported as 117.52); higher U.S. Treasury yields; sell-yen orders from Japan importers. But USD/JPY gains tempered by buy-yen orders from Japan exporters. Data focus: 1230 GMT U.S. March trade balance, 1400 GMT U.S. May IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. Daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics in bearish mode, but five-day moving average meandering sideways. Resistance at 102.26 (Monday's high), then at 102.57 (hourly chart); breach would target 103.02-103.11 band (Friday's high-April 8 high), then 103.43 (April 7 high), 104.13 (April 4 high) and 104.84-104.92 band (Jan. 23 high-Jan. 16 high). Support at 101.86-101.81 (Monday's low-April 16 low); breach would target 101.50-101.42 band (April 15 low-April 14 low), then 101.32 (April 11 reaction low), 101.15 (March 17 reaction low) and 101.03 (200-day moving average).
EUR/USD--to range-trade. Supported by euro demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross amid improved risk sentiment; euro demand on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But EUR/USD upside limited by concerns over rising violence in Ukraine. Data focus: 0755 GMT Markit Germany April services PMI, 0800 GMT Markit euro-zone April services PMI, 0900 GMT euro-zone March retail sales. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought; five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing. Resistance at 1.3887-1.3889 (Monday's high-Thursday's high); breach would target 1.3906 (April 11 high), then 1.3948 (March 17 high), 1.3967 (March 13 top) and psychological 1.4000 line. Support at 1.3865 (Monday's low), then at 1.3840 (hourly chart) and 1.3812 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.3771 (Wednesday's low), then 1.3738 (April 8 low), 1.3680-1.3672 band (April 7 low-April 4 low), 1.3643 (Feb. 27 reaction low) and 1.3561 (Feb. 12 reaction low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate as markets wait for 0430 GMT Reserve Bank of Australia interest-rate announcement: RBA is expected to stay on hold at record-low 2.5%. AUD/USD supported by improved risk sentiment. But AUD/USD upside limited by Aussie sales on weak AUD/NZD cross; soft commodity prices; concerns over China's economy as final April HSBC China manufacturing PMI came in at 48.1 compared with preliminary reading of 48.3. Other data: 0130 GMT Australia March trade balance. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising from oversold. Resistance at 0.9311-0.9316 (Monday's high-April 28 high); breach would expose upside to 0.9377 (April 22 high), then 0.9390 (April 17 high), 0.9426 (April 11 high) and 0.9461 (five-month high hit April 10). Support at 0.9250 (Monday's low), then at 0.9200 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.9175 (55-day moving average), then 0.9151 (March 26 low, near 200-day moving averages) and 0.9051 (March 24 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high 0.8686 Monday. Supported by kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion; kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains tempered by concerns over China's economy; soft commodity prices. Daily chart positive biased as MACD & stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing. Resistance at 0.8686-0.8694 band (Monday's high-April 15 high); breach would target 0.8706 (April 11 high), then 0.8744 (two-and-a-half year high hit April 10) and 0.8840 (Aug. 1, 2011 swing high). Support at 0.8645 (Monday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 0.8591 (Friday's low), then 0.8539 (Wednesday's low, near 55-day moving average), 0.8514-0.8511 (April 29 low-April 3 low), 0.8499 (March 20 low), 0.8437 (March 12 low) and 0.8340 ((March 3 low).
GBP/USD--to trade with risks skewed lower. Undermined by sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD downside limited by sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid diminished risk aversion. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. April official reserves, April CIPS / Markit services PMI. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five- & 15-day moving averages advancing; but stochastics turned bearish at overbought, inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Support at 1.6852 (Monday's low), then at 1.6820 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.6804 (Wednesday's low), then 1.6791 (April 29 low), 1.6775 (April 28 low) and 1.6760 (April 23 low). Resistance at 1.6887-1.6896 band (Monday's high-Friday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 1.6918 (Thursday's four-and-a-half year high), then psychological 1.7000 and 1.7042 (Aug. 5, 2009 reaction high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate in higher range after hitting three-week low 0.8760 Monday. Supported by dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance; franc sales on rebounding EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF gains tempered by franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day MA and declining. Resistance at 0.8781 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8841-0.8850 band (Friday's high-Wednesday's high), then 0.8861 (April 22 high), 0.8879 (April 8 high) and 0.8927 (April 7 high). Support at 0.8760 (Monday's low), then at 0.8739 (April 11 low); breach would target 0.8721 (March 18 low), then 0.8696 (March 13 low), 0.8566 (Oct. 27, 2011, reaction low) and 0.8520 (50% Fibonacci retracement of advance from Aug. 9, 2011 low of 0.7068 to July 24, 2012 high of 0.9972).
USD/CAD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by loonie demand on buoyant CAD/JPY cross amid improved risk tolerance. But USD/CAD losses tempered by weaker oil prices (Nymex crude settled 28 cents lower Monday at $99.48/bbl). Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada March trade balance, 1400 GMT Canada April Ivey PMI. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day MA and declining. Support at 1.0944 (Monday's low), then at 1.0933 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.0914 (April 11 low), then 1.0863-1.0853 band (April 10 low-April 9 low). Resistance at 1.0988 (Monday's high), then at 1.1004 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.1029-1.1039 band (April 29 high-April 28 high), then 1.1047-1.1053 band (April 25 high-April 23 high, near 55-day moving average), 1.1070-1.1077 band (April 1 high-March 28 high), 1.1116 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 20 high of 1.1278 to April 9 low of 1.0853) and 1.1246 (March 24 high).
EUR/JPY--to trade in higher range. Supported by improved risk appetite; buy-euro orders from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by sell-euro orders from Japan exporters. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics in bearish mode. Resistance at 141.80 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 142.47 (April 29 high), then 142.61 (April 4 high) and 143.44-143.47 (April 3 high-April 2 high). Support at 141.29 (Monday's low); breach would target 141.13 (Wednesday's low), then 140.99 (April 28 low), 140.68 (April 16 low), 140.24 (April 15 low) and 140.08 (April 8 low).
EUR/GBP--to trade in higher range. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish. Resistance at 0.8232-0.8237 (Monday's high-Wednesday's high), then at 0.8258-0.8268 band (April 29 high-April 16 high); breach would target 0.8284 (April 14 high), then 0.8310-0.8314 (April 11 high-April 3 high) and 0.8365 (March 26 high). Support at 0.8206 (Monday's low), then at 0.8192-0.8182 band (Friday's low-Feb. 28 reaction low); breach would target 0.8154 (Feb. 17 swing low), then 0.8101 (Jan. 7, 2013 low) and 0.8083 (Jan. 3, 2013 reaction low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 05, 2014 20:46 ET (00:46 GMT)
0 Response to "Softer Yen as U.S.ISM NonManufacturing PMI Boost Risk Sentiment"
Thanks for give comment.