(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY-to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-week low 101.50 Tuesday as markets await 1400 GMT Fed Charwoman Janet Yellen's testimony to U.S. Joint Economic Committee on 'The Economic Outlook.' USD/JPY undermined by negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.14 versus 79.50 early Tuesday) on bets that Yellen might sound dovish as she reiterates the U.S. economy is recovering but not as strongly as desired; Wall Street losses overnight (S&P 500 closed 0.9% lower at 1,867.72); lower longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields; drop in U.S. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index to 45.8 in May from 48.0 in April; wider-than-expected U.S. March trade deficit of $40.38 billion (versus $40.2 billion forecast). USD/JPY also weighed by Japan exporter sales; flows to haven JPY amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 3.84% to 13.8). But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Other data: 2350 GMT April Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting minutes, 1230 GMT U.S. 1Q preliminary nonfarm productivity & unit labor costs, 1900 GMT U.S. March consumer credit. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish. Support at 101.50-101.42 band (Tuesday's low-April 14 low); breach would target 101.32 (April 11 reaction low), then 101.15 (March 17 reaction low), 101.05 (200-day moving average), 100.76 (Feb. 4 swing low) and psychological 100.00 line. Resistance at 102.19-102.26 band (Tuesday's high-Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 103.02-103.11 band (Friday's high-April 8 high), then 103.43 (April 7 high), 104.13 (April 4 high) and 104.84-104.92 band (Jan. 23 high-Jan. 16 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-two-month high 1.3952 Tuesday. Supported by negative dollar sentiment; surprise 0.3% on-month increase in euro-zone March retail sales (versus forecast for 0.2% fall); final euro-zone April composite PMI coming in at 54, unchanged from the flash reading and confirming the fastest rate of economic growth in three years. But EUR/USD gains tempered by euro sales on weaker EUR/GBP cross; decreased investor risk appetite; caution ahead of European Central Bank's interest rate decision Thursday. Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany March manufacturing orders, 0810 GMT euro-zone April retail PMI, 0900 GMT Germany 2Q Ifo economic climate for the euro area. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought; five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing. Resistance at 1.3952 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.3967 (March 13 top), then psychological 1.4000 line and 1.4248 (Oct. 27, 2011 reaction high). Support at 1.3873-1.3865 band (Tuesday's low-Monday's low), then at 1.3812 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.3771 (April 30 low), then 1.3738 (April 8 low), 1.3680-1.3672 band (April 7 low-April 4 low), 1.3643 (Feb. 27 reaction low) and 1.3561 (Feb. 12 reaction low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-two-week high 0.9367 Tuesday. Spotlight on 0130 GMT Australia March retail sales. AUD/USD supported by negative dollar sentiment; Aussie demand on rebounding AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD gains tempered by concerns over China's economy; reduced investor risk appetite. Other data: 0400 GMT May monthly leading indicator of employment, 0630 GMT Australia April official reserve assets. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode. Resistance at 0.9367-0.9377 band (Tuesday's high-April 22 high); breach would target 0.9390 (April 17 high), then 0.9426 (April 11 high) and 0.9461 (five-month high hit April 10). Support at 0.9265 (Tuesday's low), then at 0.9250 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.9200 (Friday's low), then 0.9183 (55-day moving average), 0.9151 (March 26 low, near 200-day moving averages) and 0.9051 (March 24 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate in lower range after hitting two-and-a-half year high 0.8779 Tuesday. Undermined by comment from RBNZ Gov. Wheeler that the Kiwi is overvalued and if the "currency remains high in the face of worsening fundamentals, such as a continued weakening in export prices, it would become more opportune for the Reserve Bank to intervene in the currency market to sell NZ dollars." NZD/USD also weighed by concerns over China's economy; Kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross; decreased investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses tempered by negative dollar sentiment; NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought; five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing. Support at 0.8670 (Tuesday's low), then at 0.8645 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8591 (Friday's low), then 0.8539 (April 30 low, near 55-day moving average), 0.8514-0.8511 (April 29 low-April 3 low), 0.8499 (March 20 low) and 0.8437 (March 12 low). Resistance at 0.8779 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8840 (Aug. 1, 2011 swing high), then the psychological 0.9000 line.
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting four-and-a-half year high 1.6996 Tuesday. Supported by negative dollar sentiment; stronger-than-expected U.K. April CIPS / Markit services PMI of 58.7 (versus 57.9 forecast); sterling demand on weaker EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD gains tempered by subdued investor risk appetite; caution ahead of Bank of England's interest rate decision Thursday. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought; five- & 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.6996-1.7000 (Tuesday's high-psychological line); breach would target 1.7042 (Aug. 5, 2009 reaction high), then 1.7330 (50% Fibonacci retracement of decline from Nov. 9, 2007 high of 2.1161 to Jan. 23, 2009 low of 1.3498). Support at 1.6862-1.6852 band (Tuesday's low-Monday's low), then at 1.6820 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.6804 (April 30 low), then 1.6791 (April 29 low), 1.6775 (April 28 low) and 1.6760 (April 23 low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-two-month low 0.8718 Tuesday. Undermined by negative dollar sentiment; franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. Data focus: 0545 GMT Switzerland April unemployment, 0700 GMT April SNB foreign currency reserves. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold; five-day moving average below 15-day MA and declining. Support at 0.8718 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.8696 (March 13 low), then 0.8566 (Oct. 27, 2011, reaction low) and 0.8520 (50% Fibonacci retracement of advance from Aug. 9, 2011 low of 0.7068 to July 24, 2012 high of 0.9972). Resistance at 0.8781 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8841-0.8850 band (Friday's high-April 30 high), then 0.8861 (April 22 high), 0.8879 (April 8 high) and 0.8927 (April 7 high).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-one-month low 1.0870 Tuesday. Undermined by negative dollar sentiment; firmer oil prices. But loonie sentiment dented by smaller-than-expected Canada March trade surplus of C$79 million (versus C$300 million surplus forecast); drop in Canada Ivey seasonally adjusted PMI to 54.1 in April from 55.2 in March. USD/CAD losses also tempered by diminished investor risk appetite. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada March building permits. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day MA and declining. Support at 1.0870 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.0853 (April 9 reaction low), then 1.0704 (200-day moving average). Resistance at 1.0960 (Tuesday's high), then at 1.0988 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.1004 (Friday's high), then 1.1029-1.1039 band (April 29 high-April 28 high), 1.1047-1.1053 band (April 25 high-April 23 high, near 55-day moving average) and 1.1070-1.1077 band (April 1 high-March 28 high).
EUR/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by reduced investor risk tolerance; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics in bearish mode. Support at 141.36-141.29 band (Tuesday's low-Monday's low); breach would target 141.13 (April 30 low), then 140.99 (April 28 low), 140.68 (April 16 low), 140.24 (April 15 low) and 140.08 (April 8 low). Resistance at 142.10 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 142.47 (April 29 high), then 142.61 (April 4 high) and 143.44-143.47 (April 3 high-April 2 high).
EUR/GBP--to trade with risks skewed lower. Undermined by stronger-than-expected U.K. April CIPS / Markit services PMI. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish; five- & 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.8191-0.8182 band (Tuesday's low-Feb. 28 reaction low); breach would target 0.8154 (Feb. 17 swing low), then 0.8101 (Jan. 7, 2013 low) and 0.8083 (Jan. 3, 2013 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8232-0.8237 (Monday's high-April 30 high), then at 0.8258-0.8268 band (April 29 high-April 16 high); breach would target 0.8284 (April 14 high), then 0.8310-0.8314 (April 11 high-April 3 high) and 0.8365 (March 26 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
May 06, 2014 19:42 ET (23:42 GMT)
0 Response to "USD Soft Before Yellen's Testimony - ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK"
Thanks for give comment.