USD Bearish Vs JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF; Bullish Vs AUD, CAD This Week -- Charting Forex

 
   By Jerry Tan 
 

        The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
        USD/JPY
        1st support - 117.44 (minor)
        1st resistance - 119.55 (minor)
        2nd support - 117.24 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 119.92 (minor)
        USD/JPY (last 118.73) is likely to trade in a lower range this week after completing a bearish outside-week-range pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Support is at Thursday's low of 117.44. A breach would target the Nov. 27 reaction low of 117.24, and then the Nov. 18 low of 116.34. An extension of the fall would target the Nov. 17 low of 115.45, and then the Nov. 12 low of 114.89. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 119.55. A breach would target Wednesday's high of 119.92, and then Tuesday's high of 120.99. An extension of the rise would target 121.86, the seven-year high hit on Dec. 8 high; and then the July 9, 2007 high of 123.66. The medium-term USD/JPY outlook remains positive as the five- and 15-week moving averages are still advancing. A rise above the June 22, 2007 swing high of 124.14 would target the Dec. 5, 2002 reaction high of 125.70, and then the psychological 130.00 line in the weeks ahead.
        EUR/USD
        1st support - 1.2370 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.2507 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.2239 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 1.2532 (minor)
        EUR/USD (last 1.2453) is likely to trade in a higher range this week after completing a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Resistance is at the Dec. 1 high of 1.2507. A breach would target the Nov. 26 high of 1.2532; and then the 55-day moving average, now at 1.2546. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 19 reaction high of 1.2602, and then the Oct. 29 reaction high of 1.2770. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.2370. A breach would expose the downside to the 1.2247-1.2239 band, marked by the Dec. 8 low and the Aug. 10, 2012 low; and then to the Aug. 2, 2012 low of 1.2132. An extension of the fall would target the July 31, 2012 swing low of 1.2040, and then the psychological 1.2000 line. The EUR/USD medium-term outlook remains negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are still declining. A drop below 1.2040 would target the June 30, 2010 swing low of 1.1875; and then the Nov. 17, 2005 swing low of 1.1638 in the weeks ahead.
        AUD/USD
        1st support - 0.8086 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.8320 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.8065 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 0.8375 (minor)
        AUD/USD (last 0.8228) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the five- and 15-day moving averages are declining. Support is at the June 8, 2010 low of 0.8086. A breach would target the May 25, 2010 swing low of 0.8065, and then the psychological 0.8000 line. An extension of the fall would target the July 13, 2009 reaction low of 0.7700. Resistance may be encountered at the 10-day exponential moving average, now at 0.8320. A breach would target Thursday's high of 0.8375, and then the Dec. 4 high of 0.8429. An extension of the rise would target the Dec. 2 high of 0.8542, and then the Nov. 27 high of 0.8615. The AUD/USD medium-term outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. A drop below the 0.8065 support would expose the downside to 0.7700, and then to the psychological 0.7000 line in the weeks ahead.
        NZD/USD
        1st support - 0.7606 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 0.7870 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7451 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 0.7910 (minor)
        NZD/USD (last 0.7765) is likely to consolidate this week after hitting a two-and-a-half year low of 0.7606 last Tuesday. The daily chart is mixed as the slow stochastic measure is bullish, but the MACD indicator is bearish. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 0.7870. A breach would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the Dec. 1 high of 0.7910, and then the Nov. 27 high of 0.7926. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 21 reaction high of 0.7947 and then the Nov. 17 reaction high of 0.7974. But a drop below 0.7606 would tilt the near-term outlook negative, exposing the downside to the June 1, 2012 swing low of 0.7451; and then to the Nov. 25, 2011 swing low of 0.7367. The medium-term NZD/USD outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. The currency pair may fall to the 0.7451 and 0.7367 levels, and then to the March 17, 2011 reaction low of 0.7113 in the weeks ahead. But a rise above the Oct. 21 reaction high of 0.8033 would temper the negative medium-term view.
        GBP/USD
        1st support - 1.5649 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.5763 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.5624 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.5825 (moderate)
        GBP/USD (last 1.5706) is likely to trade in a higher range this week after completing a bullish outside-week-range pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Resistance is at the Dec. 1 high of 1.5763. A breach would target the Nov. 27 reaction high of 1.5825; and then the 55-day moving average, now at 1.5888. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 11 reaction high of 1.5944, and then the Nov. 5 high of 1.6021. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.5649. A breach would target Tuesday's low of 1.5624, and then the Dec. 8 low of 1.5539. An extension of the fall would target the Aug. 28, 2013 reaction low of 1.5426, and then the Aug. 7, 2013 low of 1.5205. The medium-term GBP/USD outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. A drop below the 1.5426 support would open the way down to the Aug. 2, 2013 reaction low of 1.5101; and then to the July 9, 2013 swing low of 1.4812 in the weeks ahead.
        USD/CHF
        1st support - 0.9593 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.9723 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.9530 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.9818 (moderate)
        USD/CHF (last 0.9644) is likely to trade in a lower range this week after completing a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Support is at the Nov. 26 reaction low of 0.9593. A breach would expose the downside to the Nov. 19 reaction low of 0.9530, and then to the Oct. 29 reaction low of 0.9439. Resistance is at the 0.9710-0.9723, marked by Thursday's high and Wednesday's high. A rise above 0.9723 would expose the upside to the Dec. 8 high of 0.9818; and then to the May 22, 2013 swing high of 0.9838. An extension of the rise would target the July 24, 2012 swing high of 0.9972, and then the psychological 1.0000 line. The USD/CHF medium-term outlook remains positive as the five- and 15-week moving averages are still advancing. The currency pair may rise to the 0.9838 and 0.9972 levels; and then to the Dec. 1, 2010 reaction high of 1.0066 in the weeks ahead.
        USD/CAD
        1st support - 1.1443 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.1666 (moderate)
        2nd support - 1.1394 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.1724 (moderate)
        USD/CAD (last 1.1572) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing. Resistance is at 1.1666--the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the March 9, 2009 high of 1.3063 to the July 26, 2011 low of 0.9403. A rise above 1.1666 would target the July 8, 2009 reaction high of 1.1724, and then the May 18, 2009 high of 1.1814. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.1443. A breach would target Tuesday's low of 1.1394, and then the Dec. 4 low of 1.1336. An extension of the fall would target the Dec. 1 low of 1.1310, which is currently near the 55-day moving average, and then the Nov. 26 low of 1.1224. The medium-term USD/CAD outlook is positive as the five- and 15-week moving averages are advancing. The currency pair may rise to the 1.1666 and 1.1724 levels, and then to the psychological 1.2000 line in the weeks ahead.
        Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        December 14, 2014 21:33 ET (02:33 GMT)

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