(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by selling of yen crosses amid diminished investor risk appetite (S&P 500 closed 0.63% lower at 1,989.63 overnight, although VIX fear gauge finished down 3.13% to 20.42) as oil prices extend falls to fresh five-and-a-half year lows Monday--Nymex crude hit $55.02/bbl, its cheapest since May 8, 2009--stoking concerns over receding demand and slowing global economy. USD/JPY also weighed by Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by improved USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 88.43 versus 88.20 early Monday) and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.114% versus 2.103% late Friday) as stronger-than-expected 1.3% on-month increase in U.S. November industrial production (versus forecast +0.8%) and higher-than-expected U.S. November capacity utilization of 80.1% (versus forecast 79.4%) outweigh surprise drop in Empire State's business conditions index to minus 3.58 in December from plus 10.16 in November (versus forecast for rise to 14) and unexpected fall in U.S. NAHB housing market index to 57 in December from November's 58 (versus forecast for rise to 59). USD/JPY downside also limited by demand from Japan importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy; positions adjustment as market participants trim risk exposure ahead of Federal Reserve's monetary decision Wednesday. Yen crosses vulnerable to 0145 GMT HSBC flash China December manufacturing PMI data (forecast 50.0). Other data: 0135 GMT Markit/JMMA flash Japan December manufacturing PMI, 1330 GMT U.S. November housing starts (forecast +2.9%) and building permits (forecast -0.5%), 1445 GMT Markit flash U.S. December manufacturing PMI. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 117.56 (Monday's low); breach would target 117.44 (Thursday's low), then 117.22 (Nov. 27 reaction low), 116.34 (Nov. 18 low) and 115.44 (Nov. 17 low). Resistance at 118.02 (hourly chart), then at 118.97 (hourly chart) and 119.13-119.21 band (Monday's high-Friday's high); breach would target 119.55 (Thursday's high), then 119.92 (Wednesday's high), 121.00 (Dec. 9 high), 121.86 (Dec. 8 seven-year high) and 123.66 (July 9, 2007 high).
EUR/USD--to trade with risks skewed to downside. Undermined by improved USD sentiment; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite; expectations for more aggressive stimulus measures by the European Central Bank in 2015--ECB's Nowotny said Monday the central bank may have to buy sovereign bonds as banks aren't taking in large enough amounts of the ECB's targeted long-term loans on offer. But EUR/USD losses tempered by euro demand on buoyant EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD crosses. Data focus: 0830 GMT Markit flash Germany December PMI (manufacturing PMI forecast at 50.2); 0900 GMT Markit flash eurozone December PMI (manufacturing PMI forecast at 50.5, composite PMI forecast at 51.5); 1000 GMT Germany December ZEW indicator of economic sentiment (forecast +18.0 versus November's 11.5), eurozone October trade balance. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics in bullish mode, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; although inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Support at 1.2414 (Monday's low), then at 1.2384 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.2370-1.2362 band (Thursday's low-Wednesday's low), then 1.2292 (Dec. 9 low), 1.2247-1.2239 band (Dec. 8 low-Aug. 10, 2012 low), 1.2132 (Aug. 2, 2012 low) and 1.2040 (July 31, 2012 swing low). Resistance at 1.2484-1.2485 (Monday's high-Friday's high), then at 1.2496 (Thursday's high); breach would target 1.2507 (Dec. 1 high), then 1.2524-1.2532 band (Nov. 27 high-Nov. 26 high), 1.2542 (55-day moving average) and 1.2575 (Nov. 20 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting four-year low 0.8198 Monday. Undermined by improved USD sentiment; Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite; weak commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 1.11% at 241.05 Monday); recent jawboning against Aussie exchange rate from RBA officials. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia December RBA monetary policy meeting minutes. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Support at 0.8198 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8086 (June 8, 2010 reaction low), then 0.8065 (May 25, 2010 swing low) and psychological 0.8000 line. Resistance at 0.8267 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.8298 (Friday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average), then 0.8375 (Thursday's high), 0.8392 (Dec. 5 high), 0.8429 (Dec. 4 high) and 0.8466 (Dec. 3 high).
NZD/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Spotlight Tuesday on 1200 GMT GlobalDairyTrade auction. NZD/USD undermined by improved USD sentiment; Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite; weak commodity prices. But NZD/USD losses tempered by NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart mixed as stochastics neutral, MACD in bearish mode. Support at 0.7718 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7659 (Wednesday's low), then 0.7606 (Dec. 9 two-and-a-half year low), 0.7451 (June 1, 2012 swing low) and 0.7367 (Nov. 25, 2011 swing low). Resistance at 0.7793 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.7848 (Friday's high), then 0.7870 (Thursday's high), 0.7889 (Dec. 2 high), 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high) and 0.7926 (Nov. 27 high).
GBP/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Spotlight Tuesday on 0930 GMT U.K. November CPI (forecast -0.1% on-month, +1.2% on-year). GBP/USD undermined by improved USD sentiment; sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid waning investor risk appetite; sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross and on soft GBP/CHF cross. But GBP/USD losses tempered by sterling demand on buoyant GBP/CAD cross. Other data: 0700 GMT Bank of England's Financial Stability Report, 0930 GMT U.K. November PPI, retail price index. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish. Support at 1.5599 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.5539 (Dec. 8 low), then 1.5504 (Sept. 2, 2013 low), 1.5426 (Aug. 28, 2013 reaction low) and 1.5205 (Aug. 7, 2013 low). Resistance at 1.5690 (hourly chart), then at 1.5746 (Monday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 1.5756-1.5763 band (Thursday's high-Dec. 1 high), then 1.5825 (Nov. 27 reaction high), 1.5876 (55-day moving average), 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high) and 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high).
USD/CHF--to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by improved USD sentiment; franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross; ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains tempered by franc demand on soft GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF crosses. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Resistance at 0.9682 (Monday's high), then at 0.9699 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.9710 (Thursday's high), then 0.9723 (Wednesday's high), 0.9778 (Dec. 9 high), 0.9818 (Dec. 8 one-and-a-half year high), 0.9838 (May 22, 2013 swing high) and 0.9972 (July 24, 2012 swing high). Support at 0.9610 (Monday's low, near 55-day moving average); breach would target 0.9593 (Nov. 26 low), then 0.9564 (Nov. 21 low) and 0.9530 (Nov. 19 reaction low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting five-year high 1.1672 Monday. Supported by weak oil prices (Nymex crude hit five-and-a-half year low $55.02/bbl Monday); improved USD sentiment; receding investor risk appetite; loonie sales on cross trades versus major currencies. Data focus: 1330 GMT Canada October international transactions in securities, October monthly survey of manufacturing. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.1672 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1724 (July 8, 2009 reaction high), then 1.1814 (May 18, 2009 high). Support at 1.1594 (hourly chart), then at 1.1545 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.1512 (Friday's low), then 1.1449 (Thursday's low), 1.1430 (Wednesday's low), 1.1394 (Dec. 9 low) and 1.1374 (Dec. 5 low).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-week low 146.27 Monday. Undermined by diminished investor risk appetite; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart negative-biased as bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Monday; MACD & stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 146.27 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 145.55 (Nov. 24 reaction low), then 144.75 (Nov. 17 low), 144.27 (Nov. 14 low) and 143.52 (Nov. 13 low). Resistance at 147.08 (hourly chart), then at 147.90 (hourly chart) and 148.45 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 148.86 (Dec. 9 high), then 149.79 (Dec. 8 six-year high) and psychological 150.00 line--above which would expose upside with no significant resistance until 156.83 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
December 15, 2014 18:58 ET (23:58 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-week high 0.7972 Monday. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 0.7972-0.7976 (Monday's high-Dec. 1 high); breach would target 0.8002 (Nov. 21 high), then 0.8027 (Nov. 20 high, near 200-day moving average), 0.8039 (Nov. 19 reaction high), 0.8046 (Oct. 15 reaction high) and 0.8065 (Sept. 10 reaction high). Support at 0.7903 (Monday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.7864-0.7856 band (Friday's low-Dec. 9 low), then 0.7835-0.7828 band (Dec. 8 low-Dec. 3 low), 0.7794 (Nov. 12 low), 0.7781 (Oct. 2 low) and 0.7758-0.7753 (Sept. 30 reaction low-July 23, 2012 swing low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 15, 2014 18:58 ET (23:58 GMT)
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