(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate. Liquidity thin as financial markets in Japan, New Zealand and Switzerland remain shut for public holiday on first trading day of 2015. USD/JPY supported by positive USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit eight-and-a-half year high 90.384 this morning, last 90.37 versus 89.95 early Wednesday) as larger-than-expected 0.8% on-month increase in U.S. November pending home sales index (versus forecast +0.5%) outweighed bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM-Chicago PMI to 58.3 in December from 60.8 in November (versus forecast 60.0) and more-than-expected 298,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Dec. 27 (versus forecast 290,000); while expectations prevailed that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in coming months ahead of other major central banks. USD/JPY also supported by sell-yen orders from Japan importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy. But USD/JPY gains tempered by buy-yen orders from Japan exporters; flows to haven JPY amid negative global risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge rose 20.6% to 19.2, S&P fell 1.03% Wednesday) on weak oil prices (Nymex crude hit five-and-a-half year low $52.44/bbl Wednesday) and ongoing political uncertainty in Greece; lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.174% versus 2.190% late Tuesday); positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 1445 GMT Markit U.S. final December manufacturing PMI, 1500 GMT U.S. November construction spending (forecast +0.4%), U.S. December ISM manufacturing PMI (forecast 57.4 versus November's 58.7). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators in bearish mode. Resistance at 119.93 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 120.74-120.82 band (Monday's high-Dec. 23 high), then 121.00 (Dec. 9 high), 121.86 (seven-year high hit Dec. 8), 123.66 (July 9, 2007 high) and 124.16 (June 22, 2007 swing high). Support at 119.22 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 118.86-118.82 (Tuesday's low-Dec. 19 low), then 118.26 (Dec. 18 low), 116.30 (Dec. 17 low, near 55-day moving average) and 115.56 (Dec. 16 low).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting two-year low 1.2095 Wednesday. EUR/USD undermined by positive USD sentiment; ultra-loose ECB monetary policy; concerns that the Greek anti-austerity left-wing Syriza party could win snap elections on Jan. 25; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid negative global risk sentiment; euro sales on weak EUR/GBP cross. But EUR/USD losses tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0855 GMT Markit Germany final December manufacturing PMI, 0900 GMT Markit eurozone final December manufacturing PMI. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Support at 1.2095 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2040 (July 31, 2012 swing low), then psychological 1.2000 line and 1.1875 (June 7, 2010 swing low). Resistance at 1.2170 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 1.2188 (Tuesday's high), then 1.2220-1.2226 (Monday's high-Dec. 26 high), 1.2256 (Dec. 25 high), 1.2273 (Dec. 22 high) and 1.2302 (Dec. 19 high).
AUD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive USD sentiment, weak commodity prices; negative global risk sentiment. But AUD/USD losses tempered by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0530 GMT Australia December commodity price index. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average rising above 15-day moving average. Support at 0.8153 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 0.8119 (Tuesday's low), then 0.8107-0.8101 band (Monday's low-Dec. 26 low), 0.8084 (Dec. 23 low), 0.8065 (May 25, 2010 swing low), psychological 0.8000 line and 0.7700 (July 13, 2009 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8215 (Wednesday's high); breach would tilt near-term outlook positive, targeting 0.8235 (Dec. 17 high), then 0.8274 (Dec. 15 high), 0.8298 (Dec. 12 high) and 0.8375 (Dec. 11 high).
NZD/USD--to trade in lower range. Financial markets in New Zealand are shut for a public holiday. NZD/USD undermined by positive USD sentiment, weak commodity prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; negative global risk sentiment. But NZD/USD losses tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics turning bearish near overbought levels. Support at 0.7779 (Wednesday's low), then at 0.7768 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7741 (Monday's low), then 0.7726 (Dec. 26 low), 0.7690 (Dec. 23 low), 0.7679 (Dec. 18 low) and 0.7659 (Dec. 10 low). Resistance at 0.7853 (Wednesday's high); breach would tilt near-term outlook positive, targeting 0.7870 (Dec. 11 high), then 0.7889 (Dec. 2 high), 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high) and 0.7926 (Nov. 27 high).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive USD sentiment; negative global risk sentiment. But GBP/USD losses tempered by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0930 GMT CIPS / Markit U.K. December manufacturing PMI, 0930 GMT U.K. November Bank of England money and credit data. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics bullish; but five-day moving average meandering sideways below falling 15-day moving average. Support at 1.5547 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5498 (Tuesday's low), then 1.5484 (Dec. 23 near-16-month low), 1.5426 (Aug. 28, 2013 reaction low) and 1.5205 (Aug. 7, 2013 low). Resistance at 1.5619 (Wednesday's high); breach would tilt near-term outlook positive, targeting 1.5665 (Dec. 22 high), then 1.5682 (Dec. 19 high), 1.5756 (Dec. 17 high) and 1.5785 (Dec. 16 reaction high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-year high 0.9947 Wednesday. Financial markets in Switzerland are shut for public holiday. USD/CHF underpinned by bullish USD sentiment; franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross; ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish; stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 0.9947 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.9972 (July 24, 2012 swing high), then psychological 1.0000 line and 1.0066 (Dec. 1, 2010 reaction high). Support at 0.9877 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.9864 (Tuesday's low), then 0.9842-0.9832 band (Monday's low-Dec. 26 low), 0.9793-0.9785 band (Dec. 25 low-Dec. 19 low), 0.9719 (Dec. 18 low) and 0.9592 (Dec. 17 low).
USD/CAD--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by bullish USD sentiment; weak oil prices (Nymex crude hit five-and-a-half year low $52.44/bbl Wednesday); negative global risk sentiment. But USD/CAD gains tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 1430 GMT RBC Canada December manufacturing PMI. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators bearish, five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average. Resistance at 1.1626 (Wednesday's high), then at 1.1650 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.1667-1.1673 band (Dec. 23 high-Dec. 17 five-year high), then 1.1724 (July 8, 2009 reaction high) and 1.1814 (May 18, 2009 high). Support at 1.1563-1.1557 band (Wednesday's low-Dec. 17 low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 1.1545 (Dec. 15 low), then 1.1512 (Dec. 12 low) and 1.1449 (Dec. 11 low).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-week low 144.71 Wednesday. EUR/JPY undermined by increased investor risk aversion; weak EUR sentiment. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 144.71 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 144.46 (55-day moving average), then 143.19 (Nov. 12 low) and 142.06 (Nov. 10 low). Resistance at 145.57 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 146.73 (Tuesday's high), then 147.23 (Monday's high), 148.45 (Dec. 15 high), 148.86 (Dec. 9 high) and 149.79 (six-year high hit Dec. 8).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting two-year low 0.7754 Wednesday. EUR/GBP undermined by weak euro sentiment amid ongoing political uncertainty in Greece. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.7754-0.7753 (Wednesday's low-Sept. 30 reaction low-July 23, 2012 swing low); breach would expose downside to 0.7692 (Oct. 20, 2008 swing low), then 0.7595 (March 10, 2008 low). Resistance at 0.7818 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7844 (Tuesday's high), then 0.7857 (Dec. 26 high), 0.7877 (Dec. 25 high), 0.7930 (Dec. 18 high) and 0.7954 (Dec. 17 high).
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 01, 2015 18:46 ET (23:46 GMT)
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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January 01, 2015 18:46 ET (23:46 GMT)
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