(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation. Spot USD/CNY may be supported by the 20-day Bollinger mid line at 6.1966 but still lacks bullish technical momentum. If the pair ends Friday above 6.2185 and thereby within the daily Bollinger uptrend channel, a bullish technical signal would appear and possibly spur more dollar strength in the near term. The mid-term target for spot USD/CNY upon confirmation of the bullish chart cue could be the 2014 peak of 6.2676 notched on Apr. 30. The weak manufacturing PMI data out of China released earlier this week had little net impact on the yuan but has prompted speculation of further liquidity-boosting measures from the central bank--a positive for the stock market. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 6.1966 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 6.1754 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2185 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2392 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2500 (psychological resistance).
USD/TWD--closed.
USD/KRW--consolidation. USD/KRW is likely to hover near the 1,100 mark as regional lead indicator USD/JPY maintains its level. The South Korea won could get a small boost from the improvement in the HSBC purchasing manufacturers' index released earlier Friday which rose to 49.9 in December versus 49.0 the previous month. However, the number was still in the sub-50 contractionary territory indicating the manufacturing industry is still shrinking, albeit at a slower pace. The overarching market theme of a stronger U.S. dollar for 2015--on the back of U.S. rate-hike expectations--ought to keep USD/KRW supported on dips. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,094 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1,088 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,103 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 1,110 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--uptrend may resume. USD/SGD is attempting to re-enter the daily Bollinger uptrend channel at 1.3238 as expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates--possibly even earlier than most forecasts for mid-2015 - keep the greenback buoyant. If the uptrend channel is activated, USD/SGD could make its way toward 1.3298 where the channel's ceiling awaits. A further rally past the 1.3300 round-figure trading barrier could incite a burst of stop-loss related buying. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3200 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3177 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 1.3118 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1.3238 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3298 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1.3300 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--uptrend. USD/MYR is on the threshold of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel--which currently supports the dollar at 3.4975. A Friday close above this mark would enforce the bullish chart signal that might encourage speculators to place bullish bets on the greenback. USD/MYR may be targeting the 3.5460 top of the weekly Bollinger uptrend channel in the near term. The continued weakness of crude oil prices--a bane for Malaysia as a net oil exporter--coupled with the likelihood of U.S. interest rate rises in the months ahead ought to drive USD/MYR higher in the medium term. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.4975 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.4880 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 3.4800 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel and psychological trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 3.5000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 3.5060 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.5460 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--closed.
USD/PHP--closed.
USD/IDR--consolidation. USD/IDR may linger within a 12,340-12,450 range demarcated by the entrance to the daily Bollinger downtrend channel and the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance line above. The lack of technical trading cues on the short-term chart may keep speculators away from USD/IDR for now and thus lead to further price stagnation. A daily close below 12,340 would activate the downtrend channel that might encourage short-term U.S. dollar-selling. But greenback weakness seems unlikely given the widespread belief that U.S. interest rates will rise by mid-year. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,340 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 12,230 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 12,120 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone). Immediate resistance is at 12,450 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 12,570 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 12,600 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/INR--consolidation with bullish bias. On the daily chart, USD/INR remains in a technical no-man's land between the daily Bollinger bands (standard deviation 1), suggesting consolidation could continue. But the upward-sloping 20-day Bollinger mid line which now supports at 63.00--also a round-figure trading barrier--lends a mild bullish bias to USD/INR. If this technical support holds, USD/INR may attempt to re-enter the Bollinger uptrend channel at 63.62. Dollar-bulls are likely to prop up USD/INR on dips, relying on the broad consensus that U.S. interest rates could rise as soon as mid-year. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.00 (20-day Bollinger mid support and round-figure trading barrier), then at 62.24 (previous double-top), then at 62.54 (base of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel), before 62.37 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.53 (top of weekly Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), then at 63.62 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 64.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@wsj.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 01, 2015 19:53 ET (00:53 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD/Asia Supported on U.S.Rate Views -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.