(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation. While the U.S. dollar index rose again overnight, suggesting that the People's Bank of China will move the daily USD/CNY benchmark rate higher for a third day, the spot USD/CNY market has been trading with a heavy tone lately. Thus the dollar could linger between a consolidation range formed by the 20-day Bollinger mid support at 6.2050 and the entrance to the Bollinger uptrend channel at 6.2195. Overnight, the U.S. dollar gained slightly against some of its major peers after a private survey of U.S. payrolls data surprised much higher, boding well for Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2050 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 6.1906 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2195 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2340 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2500 (psychological resistance).
USD/TWD--uptrend. A bullish chart bias persists for USD/TWD within the Bollinger uptrend channel. The U.S. dollar stayed firm against the Japanese yen in overnight trade - setting a tone for most USD/Asia currency pairs Thursday. In the offshore nondeliverable forward market, the benchmark 1-month USD/TWD contract is now priced at a small premium versus that of the spot contract - an indication that speculators are bullish on the U.S. dollar. USD/TWD could trigger a long-term bullish technical signal on a January close above the top of the monthly Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone at 31.880. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.880 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 31.650 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 31.500 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is likely at 32.000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 32.120 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 32.200 (psychological resistance).
USD/KRW--consolidation. USD/KRW may linger around within a 1,096-1,102 range as lead indicator USD/JPY treads water for now. The overnight rebound of U.S. stocks may improve investor sentiment and help emerging market currencies to rise, but the weakness of the euro is keeping the U.S. dollar index buoyant thus acting as a supportive factor for USD/KRW. Asia investors might be slightly less worried about global rate hike repercussions after the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's last meeting - released Wednesday - suggested that U.S. interest rates won't rise before April. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,096 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel and daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1,089 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,101 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 1,107 (Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/SGD--uptrend. USD/SGD maintains its bullish short-term technical bias despite retreating from its overnight jaunt above the round-figure trading barrier at 1.3400. USD/SGD is likely to stay up if regional lead indicator USD/JPY hovers above 119.00. A Thursday close above 1.3306 for USD/SGD would keep the daily Bollinger uptrend channel intact, suggesting that near-term greenback strength is still likely. But on an intraday basis, the U.S. dollar could trade sideways after Wednesday's release of the U.S. Federal Reserve's last meeting minutes revealed that U.S. interest rates likely won't rise before April, possibly dampening some of the more hawkish views in the market. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3306 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3300 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3222 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 1.3400 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3404 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1.3421 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/MYR--uptrend. USD/MYR has retreated from Wednesday's 5.5-year high of 3.5850 after better-than-expected Malaysia November trade data released late Wednesday. The street had been expecting poor export numbers due to the recent collapse of oil prices - though this may still affect trade data in subsequent readings - and thus was caught off guard by a very strong print instead. Bearish bets on the ringgit were capitulated after the data release. USD/MYR also may be capped by hints from the U.S. Federal Reserve in the minutes of its last meeting that interest rates won't rise before April, thus offering investors more certainty as to how long more borrowing will remain cheap. Traders have seen limited spot market intervention by the Malaysian central bank thus far. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.5500 (psychological support), then at 3.5330 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.5040 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 3.5800 (psychological resistance), before 3.6000 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/THB--consolidation. USD/THB is stuck in a technical no-man's land between the lower and upper Bollinger bands (standard deviation 1). Unless the pair ends Wednesday outside of the 32.84-32.94 range, consolidation may continue in the days ahead. The rebound of U.S. stocks overnight has tentatively calmed the sense of risk aversion that had been building up since the start of the week, thus reducing demand for the safe haven dollar. But the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 1.97% from this week's low of 1.93%, thus lending support to the dollar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.84 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 32.79 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 32.75 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 32.89 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 32.94 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 33.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/PHP--uptrend. USD/PHP appears bullish on two technical cues on the daily chart. The dollar is within the daily Bollinger uptrend channel and is also above the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone, thus opening the way for a rally toward 45.45 - the top of the weekly Bollinger uptrend channel. But the dollar's move higher may be gradual as the peso is still attractive to foreign investors - reinforced by the credit rating upgrade from Moody's in December. The overarching theme of a stronger U.S. dollar for this year could return with gusto if the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note - currently depressed below 2.0% - starts to rise again. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 44.97 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 44.86 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 45.05 (weekly Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.45 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--uptrend. USD/IDR may pullback slightly from the 12,740 top of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel - which was reached on Wednesday - as investor sentiment gets a reprieve after U.S. stocks rallied overnight. But the technical uptrend for USD/IDR will remain in effect as long as the dollar stays above the uptrend channel's base at 12,630 by Thursday's close. The greenback remains solid against the major currencies such as the euro, and is showing supportive tones against the Japanese yen - factors that could keep USD/IDR propped up in the near term. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,630 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,520 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 12,500 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 12,740 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,970 (top of monthly Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,000 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/INR--consolidation. USD/INR lacks technical momentum and is hence likely to tread water between the daily Bollinger bands of 63.00-63.60 (standard deviation 1). The overnight rebound of U.S stocks could impart a softer tone to the safe haven U.S. dollar in Asia - though the overnight rise of the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note could mitigate dollar weakness slightly. As oil prices remain under pressure, countries with high energy bills will become more attractive to foreign investors. Cheap oil is a huge positive for India's budget deficit - and thereby the rupee - due to the country's high dependence on imported energy. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.28 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 63.00 (round-figure trading barrier and daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 62.64 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.60 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 63.92 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 64.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@wsj.com
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January 07, 2015 20:26 ET (01:26 GMT)
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Thanks for give comment.