Immediate Range Larger Range
(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-week low 118.05 Tuesday. Undermined by selling of yen crosses amid decreased risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 6.02% to 21.12, S&P 500 closed 0.89% lower at 2,002.61 overnight) as lingering eurozone worries, continued fall in oil prices to fresh five-and-a-half year lows and bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI to 56.2 in December from 59.3 in November (versus forecast 58.0) stoked concerns over the global growth outlook. USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.949% versus 2.037% late Monday); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy; broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 91.808 Tuesday, last at 91.73 versus 91.36 early Tuesday); smaller-than-expected 0.7% drop in U.S. November factory orders (versus forecast -0.8%). Data focus: 1315 GMT U.S. December ADP national employment report (forecast +250,000), 1330 GMT U.S. November trade deficit (forecast $42.0 billion), 1900 GMT FOMC meeting minutes, 2230 GMT Fed's Evans speech. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators bearish; five-day moving average staged bearish crossover against 15-day moving average. Support at 118.05 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 116.98 (55-day moving average), then 116.30 (Dec. 17 low). Resistance at 119.39 (hourly chart), then at 119.64 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 120.68 (Monday's high), then 120.74-120.82 band (Friday's high-Dec. 23 high), 121.00 (Dec. 9 high) and 121.86 (seven-year high hit Dec. 8).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-nine-year low 1.1842 on EBS this morning. Undermined by lower Markit final eurozone December composite PMI of 51.4 versus preliminary estimate of 51.7; expectations that the European Central Bank would engage in full-blown quantitative easing early 2015; fears of Greece exit from the eurozone were the anti-austerity left-wing Syriza party win snap elections on Jan. 25 and renege on the country's reform program; broadly firmer dollar undertone; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite. But EUR/USD losses tempered by euro demand on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0700 GMT Germany November retail sales, 0900 GMT Germany December labour market statistics, 0910 GMT Markit eurozone December retail PMI, 1000 GMT eurozone November unemployment, 1000 GMT eurozone December flash inflation (forecast -0.1% on-year). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Support at 1.1842 (this morning low); breach would target 1.1823 (Feb. 27, 2006, reaction low), then 1.1638 (Nov. 17, 2005, swing low) and 1.1375 (Nov. 7, 2003, reaction low). Resistance at 1.1958 (hourly chart), then at 1.1969 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2006 (Monday's high), then 1.2109 (Friday's high), 1.2170 (Dec. 31 high), 1.2188 (Dec. 30 high) and 1.2220-1.2226 (Dec. 29 high-Dec. 26 high).
AUD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by broadly firmer dollar undertone; Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross; weak commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 0.59% Tuesday at five-and-a-half year low 225.38). But Aussie sentiment soothed by narrower-than-expected Australian November trade deficit of A$0.93 billion (versus A$1.6 billion forecast); rise in HSBC China services PMI to 53.4 in December from 53.0 in November. Daily chart negative-biased as slow stochastic bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.8034 (Monday's five-and-a-half year low); breach would target psychological 0.8000 line, then 0.7700 (July 13, 2009 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8141 (hourly chart), then at 0.8157 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.8184 (Friday's high), then 0.8215 (Dec. 31 high), 0.8235 (Dec. 17 high), 0.8274 (Dec. 15 high) and 0.8298 (Dec. 12 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-day high 0.7809 Tuesday. NZD sentiment boosted by 3.6% rise in Fonterra's GDT Price Index at latest GlobalDairyTrade auction. NZD/USD also supported by Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains tempered by broadly firmer dollar undertone; Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average, but slow stochastic indicator turning bullish. Resistance at 0.7809-0.7814 (Tuesday's high-Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7853 (Dec. 31 high), then 0.7870 (Dec. 11 high), 0.7889 (Dec. 2 high) and 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high). Support at 0.7719 (hourly chart), then at 0.7679 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7616-0.7606 band (Monday's low-Dec. 9 low), then 0.7451 (June 1, 2012, swing low) and 0.7367 (Nov. 25, 2011, swing low).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting 17-month low 1.5115 this morning. GBP/USD undermined by broadly firmer dollar undertone; sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite; bigger-than-expected drop in CIPS/Markit U.K. services PMI to 55.8 in December from 58.6 in November (versus forecast 58.5); sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.5115 (this morning low); breach would target 1.5101 (Aug. 2, 2013, reaction low), then 1.5026 (July 15, 2013, low), psychological 1.5000 line and 1.4812 (July 9, 2013, swing low). Resistance at 1.5197 (hourly chart), then at 1.5273 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 1.5336 (Monday's high), then 1.5584 (Friday's high), 1.5619 (Dec. 31 high), 1.5665 (Dec. 22 high) and 1.5682 (Dec. 19 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting four-year high 1.0138 this morning. Underpinned broadly firmer dollar undertone; franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross; contagion from weak euro on the Swiss franc; ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. Data focus: 0800 GMT Switzerland December SNB foreign currency reserves. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish; stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.0138 (this morning high); breach would expose upside to 1.0277 (Sept. 10, 2010, high), then 1.0626 (Aug. 11, 2010, high). Support at 1.0038 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 1.0008 (Monday's low), then 0.9932 (Friday's low), 0.9877 (Dec. 31 low), 0.9864 (Dec. 30 low) and 0.9842-0.9832 band (Dec. 29 low-Dec. 26 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting five-and-a-half year high 1.1844 this morning. Underpinned broadly firmer dollar undertone; weak oil prices (Nymex crude hit five-and-a-half year low $47.55/bbl Tuesday before settling down $2.11 at $47.93/bbl); loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite. Canadian data were mixed Tuesday as smaller-than-expected 0.4% on-month drop in Canada November industrial product index (versus forecast -0.7%) offsets larger-than-expected 5.8% on-month drop in Canada November raw materials price index (versus forecast -4.7%). Data focus: 1330 GMT Canada November trade balance, 1500 GMT Canada December Ivey PMI. Daily chart positive-biased as bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Tuesday; MACD & stochastics bullish; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.1951 (May 1, 2009, high); breach would expose upside to psychological 1.2000 line, then 1.2200 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 9, 2009, high of 1.3063 to July 26, 2011, low of 0.9403). Support at 1.1748 (hourly chart), then at 1.1728 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.1596 (Friday's low), then 1.1563-1.1557 band (Dec. 31 low-Dec. 17 low), 1.1545 (Dec. 15 low), 1.1512 (Dec. 12 low) and 1.1449 (Dec. 11 low).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting two-month low 140.58 on EBS this morning. EUR/JPY undermined by weak EUR sentiment; increased investor risk aversion; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 140.58 (this morning low); breach would target 140.29 (200-day moving average), then psychological 140.00 line (near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 134.11-149.72 Oct. 16-Dec. 8 advance) and 137.80 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement). Resistance at 141.44 (hourly chart), then at 142.01 (hourly chart) and 142.71 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 144.43 (Monday's high), then 145.31 (Friday's high), 145.57 (Dec. 31 high), 146.73 (Dec. 30 high) and 147.23 (Dec. 29 high).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting eight-day high 0.7874 Tuesday. Supported by weak CIPS/Markit U.K. December services PMI. But EUR/GBP gains tempered by expectations of further quantitative easing measures from ECB in early 2015, fears over a possible Greek exit from the eurozone. Daily chart positive-biased as stochastics rising from oversold levels; MACD staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average. Resistance at 0.7874-0.7877 (Tuesday's high-Dec. 25 high, near 55-day moving average); breach would target 0.7894 (100-day moving average), then 0.7930 (Dec. 18 high), 0.7954 (Dec. 17 high) and 0.7982 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.7816 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.7792 (Monday's low), then 0.7738 (Friday's six-year low), 0.7692 (Oct. 20, 2008, swing low) and 0.7595 (March 10, 2008, low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 06, 2015 18:54 ET (23:54 GMT)
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January 06, 2015 18:54 ET (23:54 GMT)
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