(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion on news that Greece's talks with its creditors on the future of its bailout program have broken down. USD/JPY also weighed by Japan exporter sales; mounting speculation that the Bank of Japan will not ease monetary policy further. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Data focus: 0130 GMT China January house price index, 1330 GMT U.S. February Empire State manufacturing survey (forecast 10.0), 1400 GMT U.S. December Treasury international capital data, 1500 GMT U.S. February NAHB housing market index (forecast 58). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics falling from overbought levels. Support at 118.11 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 117.17 (Feb. 6 low), then 117.02 (Feb. 5 low) and 116.87 (Feb. 3 low). Resistance at 118.88 (Monday's high), then at 119.20 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 120.48 (Wednesday's high), then 120.68 (Jan. 5 high), 120.74-120.82 band (Jan. 2 high-Dec. 23 high), 121.00 (Dec. 9 high) and 121.86 (seven-year high hit Dec. 8).
EUR/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by news that latest negotiations between Greece and its Eurozone partners over the country's finances had broken down abruptly Monday after Greece again refused to request an extension to its current EUR172 billion rescue package, which is due to expire on Feb. 28, heightening fears that Greece could be forced out of Europe's currency bloc. In a post-meeting news conference, Greece's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece is ready to apply for an extension of its loan agreement from the Eurozone, but under different conditions that the eurogroup ultimately demanded. EUR/USD also weighed by euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion; euro sales on cross trades versus major currencies; ECB's large-scale quantitative easing program. Data focus: 1000 GMT Germany February ZEW indicator of economic sentiment (forecast 55.0). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish. Support at 1.1319 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.1303 (Thursday's low), then 1.1279-1.1273 band (Wednesday's low-Feb. 10 low), 1.1262 (Jan. 29 low), 1.1224 (Jan. 27 low) and 1.1098 (11-year low hit Jan. 26). Resistance at 1.1429 (Monday's high), then at 1.1443 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1486 (Feb. 6 high), then 1.1499 (Feb. 5 high), 1.1534 (Feb. 3 high), 1.1652 (Jan. 22 high) and 1.1680 (Jan. 21 high).
AUD/USD--to trade with risks skewed lower. Undermined by Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion as concerns over Greece prevail; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD losses tempered by Aussie demand on soft EUR/AUD cross. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia February Reserve Bank Board monetary policy meeting minutes. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics bullish, but five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.7747 (Monday's low), then at 0.7721 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7641 (Thursday's low), then 0.7623 (five-and-a-half year low hit Feb. 3), 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low) and psychological 0.7000 line). Resistance at 0.7794 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.7841 (Feb. 10 high), then 0.7875 (Feb. 6 high), 0.7905 (Jan. 29 high), 0.8025 (Jan. 28 high) and 0.8049 (Jan. 23 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate after hitting three-week high 0.7528 Monday. Spotlight Tuesday on 1200 GMT NZ GlobalDairyTrade auction. NZD/USD supported by stronger-than-expected New Zealand 4Q retail sales; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD and EUR/NZD crosses. But NZD/USD upside limited by Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Support at 0.7430 (Monday's low), then at 0.7409 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7312 (Thursday's low), then 0.7288 (Feb. 4 low), 0.7174 (Feb. 3 low), 0.7113 (March 17, 2011 reaction low) and psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7528 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7582 (Jan. 22 high), then 0.7626 (55-day moving average) and 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate in lower range after hitting six-week high 1.5440 Monday. Spotlight Tuesday on 0930 GMT U.K. January CPI (forecast -0.9% on-month, +0.3% on-year). GBP/USD undermined by sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion as breakdown of Greece-EU talks stoke fears that the debt-laden country would be forced out of the eurozone. But GBP/USD losses tempered by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Other data: 0930 GMT U.K. January PPI, December CML monthly lending trends. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages advancing; but bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Monday, stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.5335 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5207 (Thursday's low), then 1.5195 (Feb. 10 low), 1.5161 (Feb. 5 low), 1.5135 (Feb. 4 low) and 1.4986 (Feb. 3 low). Resistance at 1.5440 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5619 (Dec. 31 reaction high, near 100-day moving average), then 1.5682 (Dec. 19 high).
USD/CHF--to trade with risks skewed higher. Supported by broadly stronger USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 94.41 versus 94.10 early Monday); negative Swiss interest rates; threat of SNB CHF-selling intervention. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels. Resistance at 0.9328 (Monday's high), then at 0.9337-0.9347 band (Friday's high-Feb. 2 high); breach would expose upside to 0.9529 (55-day moving average), then 0.9553 (100-day moving average), 0.9562 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0240-0.7360 Jan. 14-Jan. 15 low decline) and psychological 1.0000 line. Support at 0.9277 (Monday's low), then at 0.9263 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.9251 (Thursday's low), then 0.9224 (Wednesday's low), 0.9210 (Feb. 10 low), 0.9193 (Feb. 9 low), 0.9165 (Jan. 30 low) and 0.9040 (Jan. 29 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate. Supported by loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion; dovish Bank of Canada monetary stance. But USD/CAD upside limited by loonie demand on soft EUR/CAD cross. Data focus: 1330 GMT Canada December international transactions in securities. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics bearish, but five-day moving average meandering sideways. Resistance at 1.2489 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2536 (Friday's high), then 1.2645 (Thursday's high), 1.2697 (Wednesday's high), 1.2772 (Feb. 2 high) and 1.2799 (near-six-year high hit Jan. 30). Support at 1.2418 (Monday's low, matching Friday's low); breach would target 1.2384 (Feb. 6 low), then 1.2351 (Feb. 3 low), 1.2310 (Jan. 22 low) and 1.2060 (Jan. 21 low).
EUR/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by increased investor risk aversion, weak EUR sentiment as breakdown of Greece-EU talks heightened fears that the debt-laden country would be forced out of the eurozone; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics falling from overbought levels. Support at 134.00 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 133.67 (Feb. 9 low), then 132.55 (Feb. 4 low), 132.40 (Feb. 3 low) and 132.00 (Feb. 2 low). Resistance at 135.56 (Monday's high), then at 136.02 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 136.70 (Thursday's high), then 137.31 (Jan. 22 high), 137.64 (Jan. 20 high) and 138.78-138.88 band (Jan. 15 high-Jan. 14 high).
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range as fears over Greece prevail. Daily chart negative-biased as 5- & 15-day moving averages falling; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Support at 0.7372-0.7369 (Monday's low-Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7340 (Jan. 2, 2008 low), then 0.7087 (Dec. 3, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7427-0.7433 (Monday's high-Friday's high), then at 0.7459 (Feb. 9 high); breach would target 0.7491 (Feb. 6 high), then 0.7510 (Feb. 5 high), 0.7574 (Feb. 4 high), 0.7591 (Feb. 3 high) and 0.7677 (Jan. 22 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 16, 2015 18:41 ET (23:41 GMT)
#EUR_Soft
#Greece_EU
#GreeceWorries
#NegotiationBreak
#AsiaDailyForexOutlook
0 Response to "EUR Soft as Greece-EU Negotiation Break Downs -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.