(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation. Spot USD/CNY is likely to inch higher toward the entrance of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel at 6.2560. The overnight rise of the U.S. dollar index due to the euro weakening -- after Greek debt negotiation talks Monday ended in a stalemate -- and U.S. dollar demand by importers before the Lunar New Year holidays are factors driving USD/CNY up. A Tuesday close above 6.2560 would activate a bullish chart signal that could boost USD/CNY higher in the near term. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2418 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.2279 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 6.2134 (base of the daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2560 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2702 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2800 (psychological resistance).
USD/TWD--closed.
USD/KRW--uptrend. USD/KRW is hovering at the 1,100 entrance to the daily Bollinger uptrend channel and is also above the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone, suggesting further upside is more likely. But lead indicator USD/JPY is looking soft and could steer USD/KRW lower if it sinks again. The Bank of Korea likely keeps interest rates unchanged Tuesday despite analysts calling for a rate cut, which could give the won a slight boost. Last week, government officials hinted that rates will remain steady and that other means of stimulating the economy, such as structural spending, may be employed instead. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier and the base of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1,097 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 1,090 (20-day Bollinger mid support and round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,108 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1,110 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--consolidation. USD/SGD is perched at the entrance of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel after a spurt of U.S. dollar strength due to the EUR/USD sliding overnight. Confirmation of the uptrend channel coming into effect--contingent on a Tuesday close above 1.3566--would lend a bullish technical bias to USD/SGD and possibly drive the pair up to the 1.3634 ceiling of the channel. The debt negotiation talks between Greece and eurozone leaders have so far only served to confirm both sides are taking a hardline stance regarding extension of the bailout program. This prolongs uncertainty for European investors and is negative for the euro, thus a supportive factor for the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Data released early Tuesday showed Singapore's gross domestic product for the fourth quarter was revised higher to 2.1% on-year growth versus the earlier estimate of 1.5%. Whole-year 2014 GDP was revised higher to 2.9% growth versus an earlier estimate of 2.8%. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3566 (base of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3500 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3497 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 1.3600 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3634 (top of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1.3650 (psychological resistance).
USD/MYR--consolidation. USD/MYR bounced higher Monday after stepping into the Bollinger downtrend channel briefly, indicating strong buying on dips that has prevented the formation of a bearish chart signal. The chart now suggests that consolidation within a range of 3.5690-3.6210 may ensue. The recent recovery of oil prices is a positive for the ringgit but USD/MYR may be supported by general U.S. dollar-buying as investors fret over the stalemate between Greece and eurozone leaders over the extension of bailout terms. Overnight, a failure to reach an amicable resolution between the two sides pulled EUR/USD lower, thus pushing the U.S. dollar index up. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.5800 (psychological support), then at 3.5690 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 3.5500 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 3.5950 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 3.6000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 3.6210 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--consolidation. USD/THB, unlike its regional peers, continues to be immune to gyrations of the greenback against major currencies. Monday's stalemate in the Greek-eurozone debt negotiation, which weighed the euro lower and boosted the U.S. dollar index, has had little impact on USD/THB. The pair remains in consolidation mode within a range of 32.55-32.66. A break on either side of this band would activate the daily Bollinger downtrend and uptrend channels respectively and thus impart more technical momentum to the pair. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.55 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 32.49 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 32.46 (200-day moving average). Immediate resistance is at 32.61 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 32.66 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 32.72 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/PHP--consolidation higher. USD/PHP may rebound off the 44.23 chart support level, where the 20-day Bollinger mid line converges with the 200-day moving average support. A Tuesday close above 44.36 would activate the daily Bollinger uptrend channel that might impart more upside momentum to USD/PHP and aim it toward the weekly Bollinger mid line resistance at 44.65. Overnight U.S. dollar index strength--stemming from a drop in EUR/USD as Greek-eurozone debt negotiation talks fell through--is helping to prop up most USD/Asia pairs Tuesday. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.23 (20-day Bollinger mid support and 200-day moving average), then at 44.09 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 44.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.36 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 44.50 (psychological resistance and top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 44.65 (weekly Bollinger mid resistance).
USD/IDR--uptrend. USD/IDR is likely to climb back up toward the 12,820 top of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel on the back of overnight U.S. dollar index strength. The base of the Bollinger uptrend channel props up USD/IDR at 12,715 on an intraday basis. The greenback is broadly up after an overnight slip in EUR/USD -- triggered by Greek-eurozone debt talks ending in a stalemate. The uncertainty over fresh Greek bailout terms, which may have implications for other peripheral eurozone nations, continues to anchor EUR/USD and thus support the safe-haven greenback. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,715 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,610 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 12,580 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 12,820 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,000 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/INR--closed.
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@wsj.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 16, 2015 19:52 ET (00:52 GMT)
#USD_Asia
#GreekStalemate
#FX
#Forex
#GreekWorries
0 Response to "USD/Asia Up as Greek Stalemate Continues -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.