(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 5.77% to 18.33, S&P 500 closed 0.42% lower at 2,041.51 overnight) amid renewed worries about Greece after the European Central Bank said that it is lifting a waiver on using Greek debt as collateral, while oil prices slide sharply Wednesday, ending a four-session streak of gains. USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.747% versus 1.780% late Tuesday); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.57 versus 93.77 early Wednesday) on stronger-than-expected U.S. January ISM non-manufacturing PMI of 56.7 (versus forecast 56.1), while investors remained upbeat on U.S. labour market conditions ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report despite a fewer-than-expected 213,000 increase in ADP U.S. private sector jobs in January (versus forecast +240,000). Data focus: 1330 GMT U.S. 4Q preliminary non-farm productivity (forecast +0.0%) and unit labor costs (forecast +1.2%), 1330 GMT U.S. jobless claims in week ended Jan. 31 (forecast 290,000), 1330 GMT U.S. December trade deficit (forecast $38.5 billion). Daily chart mixed MACD bearish, but stochastics neutral, five- and 15-day moving averages meandering sideways. Support at 117.07 (Wednesday's low), then at 116.87 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 116.64 (Monday's low), then 115.85 (Jan. 16 low), 115.56 (Dec. 16 reaction low), 115.44 (Nov. 17 low) and 115.04 (100-day moving average). Resistance at 118.00 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 118.50 (Jan. 29 high), then 118.66 (Jan. 27 high), 118.82-118.87 (Jan. 23 high-Jan. 20 high), 119.32 (Jan. 12 high) and 119.88-119.97 band (Jan. 9 high-Jan. 8 high).
EUR/USD--to trade in lower range. EUR hurt after European Central Bank said late Wednesday it's "currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion of the program review" for Greece, and the Bank would no longer accept junk-rated Greek government debt as collateral for regular central bank loans. EUR/USD also weighed by improved dollar sentiment; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; ECB's large-scale quantitative easing program. But EUR sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected final eurozone January composite PMI of 52.6 (versus forecast 52.2), surprise 0.3% on-month increase in eurozone December retail sales (versus forecast for 0.2% drop). Data focus: 0700 GMT Germany December manufacturing orders (forecast +1.2% on-month), 0910 GMT eurozone January retail PMI, 1000 GMT Ifo 1Q economic climate for the euro area. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode; but five-day moving average meandering sideways below falling 15-day moving average, inside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Support at 1.1278 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.1262 (Jan. 29 low), then 1.1224 (Jan. 27 low), 1.1098 (11-year low hit Jan. 26) and psychological 1.1000 line. Resistance at 1.1447 (hourly chart), then at 1.1485 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose upside to 1.1534 (Tuesday's high), then 1.1652 (Jan. 22 high), 1.1680 (Jan. 21 high) and 1.1792 (Jan. 15 high).
AUD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by improved dollar sentiment; Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite; weaker commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 3.05% Wednesday at 220.48); Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia December retail sales (forecast +0.4% on-month). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling; but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Support at 0.7740 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7623 (Tuesday's five-and-a-half year low), then 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low) and psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7848 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7905 (Jan. 29 high), then 0.8025 (Jan. 28 high), 0.8049 (Jan. 23 high), 0.8135 (Jan. 22 high) and 0.8233-0.8243 band (Jan. 21 high-Jan. 19 high).
NZD/USD--to trade with risks skewed lower. Undermined by improved dollar sentiment; Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses tempered by NZD-USD interest differential; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Support at 0.7288 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7174 (Tuesday's low), then 0.7113 (March 17, 2011 reaction low), psychological 0.7000 line and 0.6944 (Aug. 25, 2010 low). Resistance at 0.7448 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7494 (Jan. 28 high), then 0.7526 (Jan. 23 high), 0.7582 (Jan. 22 high) and 0.7687 (55-day moving average).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with risks skewed lower as markets await 1200 GMT Bank of England interest rate decision: BOE is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their current record low of 0.5%. GBP/USD undermined by improved dollar sentiment; sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid waning investor risk appetite. But GBP sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected U.K. January CIPS / Markit services PMI of 57.2 (versus forecast 56.5). GBP/USD losses also tempered by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode; five-day moving average rising above 15-day moving average. Support at 1.5135 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.4986 (Tuesday's low), then 1.4973 (Jan. 26 low), 1.4948 (one-and-a-half year low hit Jan. 23), 1.4812 (July 9, 2013 swing low) and 1.4344 (June 8, 2010 low). Resistance at 1.5250 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.5269-1.5273 (Jan. 14 high-Jan. 6 high), then 1.5336 (Jan. 5 high) and 1.5412 (55-day moving average).
USD/CHF--to trade with risks skewed higher. Underpinned by improved dollar sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of SNB CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains tempered by franc demand on soft EUR/CHF and CAD/CHF crosses. Data focus: 0645 GMT Switzerland January quarterly consumer sentiment index. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing, although inside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Resistance at 0.9278 (Wednesday's high), then at 0.9296 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9347 (Monday's high), then 0.9562 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of decline from Jan. 14 high of 1.0240 to Jan. 15 low of 0.7360; near 100-day moving average), 0.9584 (55-day moving average) and psychological 1.0000. Support at 0.9204 (Wednesday's low), then at 0.9183 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.9165 (Friday's low), then 0.9040 (Jan. 29 low), 0.8980 (Jan. 28 low), 0.8933 (Jan. 27 low) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low).
USD/CAD--to trade in higher range. CAD sentiment hurt by weaker-than-expected Canada January Ivey PMI of 45.4 (versus forecast 53.9). USD/CAD also supported by improved dollar sentiment; loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid receding investor risk appetite; weaker oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $4.60 at $48.45/bbl Wednesday). Data focus: 1330 GMT Canada December trade balance. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish, but MACD in bullish mode, inside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Resistance at 1.2593 (Wednesday's high), then at 1.2643 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2772 (Monday's high), then 1.2799 (Friday's near-six-year high), psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high). Support at 1.2526 (hourly chart), then at 1.2428 (hourly chart) and 1.2386 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2351 (Tuesday's low), then 1.2310 (Jan. 22 low) and 1.2060 (Jan. 21 low).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weaker euro sentiment after the European Central Bank said it would no longer accept Greek public securities as collateral for central bank loans. EUR/JPY also weighed by flows to have yen amid negative risk sentiment; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode; but five-day moving average meandering sideways below falling 15-day moving average. Support at 132.55 (Wednesday's low), then at 132.40 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 132.00 (Monday's low), then 130.16 (16-month low hit Jan. 26), psychological 130.00 line and 129.26 (Aug. 20, 2013 low). Resistance at 134.41 (hourly chart), then at 135.35 (Wednesday' high); breach would expose upside to 137.31 (Jan. 22 high), then 137.64 (Jan. 20 high) and 138.78-138.88 band (Jan. 15 high-Jan. 14 high).
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weaker euro sentiment after the European Central Bank suspended a waiver it has applied for Greek government bonds posted as collateral for cheap ECB loans. Daily chart tilting negative as MACD and stochastics turning bearish. Support at 0.7432 (Jan. 27 low); breach would expose downside 0.7402 (near-seven-year low hit Jan. 26), then 0.7340 (Jan. 2, 2008 low) and 0.7087 (Dec. 3, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7574 (Wednesday's high), then at 0.7591 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7677 (Jan. 22 high), then 0.7715 (Jan. 21 high), 0.7746 (Jan. 15 high) and 0.7781 (Jan. 14 high).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
February 04, 2015 18:49 ET (23:49 GMT)
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 04, 2015 18:49 ET (23:49 GMT)
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