(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--uptrend may end. Spot USD/CNY may slide after the liquidity-boosting move announced by the People's Bank of China late Wednesday. A Thursday close below 6.2482 would affirm that the Bollinger uptrend channel is no longer in play and could lead to capitulation of long-USD positions. The PBOC's 50 basis-point cut in the Reserve Requirement Ratio -- that dictates how much banks need to hold in cash reserves -- ought to boost risk appetite and lift the yuan, thereby weighing on USD/CNY. But the overnight rebound of the U.S. dollar index could result in a stable or higher daily USD/CNY benchmark rate -- which typically exerts influence on spot USD/CNY. The Shanghai stock market is likely to rally significantly with the policy-easing move by the PBOC. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2482 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2254 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 6.2500 (psychological resistance), then at 6.2710 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2719 (top of monthly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/TWD--consolidation higher. USD/TWD may rise above the 31.530 ceiling of the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone that coincides with the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance line. A daily close above that mark could lead to near-term consolidation within an elevated range. Overnight U.S. dollar index strength -- due to the euro sinking after the European Central Bank tightened the screws on Greece -- propelled the greenback broadly higher. But risk aversion triggered by Greek uncertainties may be mitigated by the easing measures announced by the People's Bank of China late Wednesday which ought to boost regional equity markets. The price difference between the 1-month USD/TWD nondeliverable forward contract and the spot contract remains at a premium, suggesting that the speculative trading community is mildly bullish on the U.S. dollar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.310 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 31.090 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.530 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance and 20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 31.750 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 31.980 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/KRW--consolidation higher. USD/KRW gapped back up Thursday in reaction to risk aversion bubbling in Europe after the European Central Bank removed a waiver that had allowed Greece access to funding by selling its junk-rated government bonds. The resulting slump in EUR/USD lifted the U.S. dollar index, which is now boosting most USD/Asia pairs. USD/KRW could take on a bullish bias if it ends the day inside the Bollinger uptrend channel that begins at 1,093. But a clean break of the Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone at 1,098 is needed to clear the path for a bigger rally. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,087 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 1,084 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 1,080 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,093 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,098 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone).
USD/SGD--uptrend may return. USD/SGD could climb back into the daily Bollinger uptrend channel as the benchmark U.S. dollar index rebounded sharply overnight on fresh Greek uncertainties. The USD/SGD pair may resume a short-term bullish technical bias if it ends Thursday above 1.3492. The euro sank overnight after the European Central Bank lifted a waiver that allowed Greece to sell its junk-rated bonds to investors, thus pushing the U.S. dollar index higher. The after-market hours announcement of liquidity-easing by the People's Bank of China on Wednesday seemed to have had little effect on external markets -- the Australia dollar blipped higher but then retreated soon after. This could be a sign that Asian stock markets might shrug at China's latest attempt to shore up economic growth. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3405 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 1.3400 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3319 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1.3492 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3500 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3577 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/MYR--consolidation higher. USD/MYR rebounds sharply at Thursday's open as the ringgit collapses in reaction to the 9% fall in crude-oil prices overnight -- just a day after oil prices had rallied sharply. The reason was apparently a report showing that U.S. oil output hasn't subsided; production cuts by shale oil-drilling companies have likely not shown up in data. An underlying reason for USD/MYR strength was the overnight slump of the euro after the European Central Bank removed an avenue of funding for Greek banks by lifting the waiver that allowed the sale of its junk-rated government bonds. The euro's slide boosted the benchmark U.S. dollar index -- which is lifting most USD/Asia pairs Thursday. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.5700 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 3.5500 (psychological support), before 3.5450 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 3.5960 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 3.6000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 3.6210 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--consolidation higher. USD/THB has been stable recently -- on suspected intervention by the Bank of Thailand to cap baht strength -- but may consolidate higher within the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone after an overnight surge of the benchmark U.S. dollar index. Wednesday's steep drop in EUR/USD -- triggered by the European Central Bank tightening the screws on Greece -- rallied the U.S. dollar index. If USD/THB ends the day above 32.65 -- where the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone coincides with the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance -- consolidation within a range of 32.65-32.76 is likely in the near term. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.55 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 32.46 (200-day moving average), before 32.45 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 32.65 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance and 20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 32.76 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 32.86 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/PHP--consolidation higher. USD/PHP may rise toward the 200-day moving average resistance line at 44.25 as the greenback rallies broadly following a steep retreat in EUR/USD overnight and accompanying risk aversion. The European Central Bank disallowing the sale of junk-rated government bonds by Greece sent shivers into the market, resulting in a weaker euro and a selloff in U.S. stocks. The rebound of the U.S. dollar index and deterioration in risk appetite is lifting most USD/Asia pairs Thursday but a glimmer of hope may come from the Chinese stock market. Shanghai is expected to rally after the People's Bank of China on Wednesday after market hours announced a significant cut in its bank reserves requirement ratio -- an attempt to increase lending to boost the economy. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.00 (round-figure trading barrier and base of weekly Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 43.74 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 43.50 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.10 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 44.25 (200-day moving average), before 44.50 (psychological resistance).
USD/IDR--possible uptrend. USD/IDR might bounce off the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone and head back into the daily Bollinger uptrend channel -- thereby reinstating a bullish technical bias -- as the U.S. dollar index rebounded sharply overnight due to the euro's slump. Risk aversion is back on the cards for European investors after the European Central Bank lifted a waiver that allowed Greece to sell its junk-rated government bonds. The resulting drop in the euro has sent traders scurrying back to the safety of the U.S. dollar. USD/Asia has risen broadly in response to the overnight move but risk appetite may be helped by China's announcement of liquidity-easing measures late Wednesday. The somewhat unexpected move by the People's Bank of China ought to lift stocks and lend support to risk-sensitive emerging-market currencies. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,580 (20-day Bollinger mid support and daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 12,500 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 12,440 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 12,650 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,720 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 12,800 (psychological resistance).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
February 04, 2015 20:01 ET (01:01 GMT)
USD/INR--consolidation higher. USD/INR may rise toward the daily Bollinger uptrend channel as the greenback rallies broadly after an overnight collapse of the euro. Wednesday's announcement by the European Central Bank, which now makes it impossible for Greece to sell its junk-rated government bonds, sent investors away from the euro and to the U.S. dollar. The overnight spike of the benchmark U.S. dollar index has lifted most USD/Asia pairs Thursday but there may be reprieve from China where stocks are expected to rally sharply after the People's Bank of China announced a cut in its banks' reserve requirement ratio -- a move to promote lending to stimulate the economy. But despite recently tumultuous global financial markets, sharp moves for the rupee are unlikely in the near term since the Reserve Bank of India has said it has been intervening in the spot market to reduce rupee volatility. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 61.76 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 61.50 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 61.23 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 62.00 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 62.03 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 62.29 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@wsj.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 04, 2015 20:01 ET (01:01 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD/Asia Up as Euro Sinks on Greece Woes -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.