(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting one-month high 120.48 Wednesday. USD/JPY underpinned by bullish USD sentiment as recent strong data out of U.S. jobs market (January non-farm payrolls and December job openings) bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its June meeting. USD/JPY also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.021% versus 1.991% late Tuesday); demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan December orders received for machinery, 2350 GMT Japan January corporate goods price index, 0600 GMT Japan January preliminary machine tool orders, 1330 GMT U.S. jobless claims in week ended Feb. 7, 1330 GMT U.S. January retail sales, 1500 GMT U.S. December business Inventories. Daily chart positive-biased as spot rate broke convincingly above upper trendline of triangle pattern; MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 120.48 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 120.68 (Jan. 5 high), then 120.74-120.82 band (Jan. 2 high-Dec. 23 high), 121.00 (Dec. 9 high) and 121.86 (seven-year high hit Dec. 8). Support at 119.64 (hourly chart), then at 119.29 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 118.40-118.33 band (Tuesday's low-Monday's low), then 117.17 (Friday's low), 117.02 (Feb. 5 low) and 116.87 (Feb. 3 low).
EUR/USD--to range-trade. Undermined by uncertainty over outcome of Greece-EU debt talks--earlier optimism from reports that Greece will stay in the EU bailout program was quashed by comments from EU official that "there's not enough progress in Greece talks at this point to come to joint conclusion." EUR/USD also weighed by bullish dollar sentiment; ECB's large-scale quantitative easing program. Data focus: 0700 GMT Germany January CPI, 1000 GMT eurozone December industrial production. Daily chart mixed as MACD in bullish mode, but stochastics neutral. Resistance at 1.1359 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1486 (Friday's high), then 1.1499 (Feb. 5 high), 1.1534 (Feb. 3 high), 1.1652 (Jan. 22 high) and 1.1680 (Jan. 21 high). Support at 1.1279-1.1273 band (Wednesday's low-Tuesday's low), then at 1.1262 (Jan. 29 low); breach would expose downside to 1.1224 (Jan. 27 low), then 1.1098 (11-year low hit Jan. 26) and psychological 1.1000 line.
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-day low 0.7691 Wednesday. Undermined by bullish dollar sentiment; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross; weak sentiment surrounding commodity-linked currencies as oil falls. Data focus: 0000 GMT Australia February consumer inflationary expectations survey, 0030 GMT Australia January labour force. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD in bearish mode, stochastics turning bearish. Support at 0.7691 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7623 (five-and-a-half year low hit Feb. 3), then 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low) and psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7793 (Wednesday's high), then at 0.7841 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7875 (Friday's high), then 0.7905 (Jan. 29 high), 0.8025 (Jan. 28 high), 0.8049 (Jan. 23 high) and 0.8135 (Jan. 22 high).
NZD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by bullish dollar sentiment; weak sentiment surrounding commodity-linked currencies as oil falls. But NZD/USD losses tempered by Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode, but bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Support at 0.7345 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 0.7321 (Monday's low), then 0.7288 (Feb. 4 low), 0.7174 (Feb. 3 low), 0.7113 (March 17, 2011 reaction low) and psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7446-0.7448 (Wednesday's high-Feb. 4 high); breach would target 0.7494 (Jan. 28 high), then 0.7526 (Jan. 23 high), 0.7582 (Jan. 22 high) and 0.7644 (55-day moving average).
GBP/USD--to consolidate in lower range as markets await 1030 GMT Bank of England inflation report. GBP/USD undermined by bullish dollar sentiment. Other data: 0001 GMT U.K. January RICS residential market survey. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish near overbought levels. Support at 1.5216 (Wednesday's low), then at 1.5195 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5161 (Feb. 5 low), then 1.5135 (Feb. 4 low), 1.4986 (Feb. 3 low), 1.4973 (Jan. 26 low), 1.4948 (one-and-a-half year low hit Jan. 23) and 1.4812 (July 9, 2013 swing low). Resistance at 1.5299 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5352 (Friday's high), then 1.5371 (55-day moving average) and 1.5619 (Dec. 31 reaction high).
USD/CHF--to trade with risks skewed higher. Supported by bullish dollar sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of SNB CHF-selling intervention. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels. Resistance at 0.9301 (Wednesday's high), then at 0.9312 (Feb. 5 high, near 200-day moving average); breach would expose upside to 0.9347 (Feb. 2 high), then 0.9562 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0240-0.7360 Jan. 14-Jan. 15 low decline; near 55-day and 100-day moving averages) and psychological 1.0000. Support at 0.9224 (Wednesday's low), then at 0.9210 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.9193 (Monday's low), then 0.9165 (Jan. 30 low), 0.9040 (Jan. 29 low), 0.8980 (Jan. 28 low) and 0.8933 (Jan. 27 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate after hitting seven-day high 1.2697 Wednesday. Supported by dovish Bank of Canada monetary stance; bullish dollar sentiment; weak oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $1.18 at $48.84/bbl Wednesday). Data focus: 1330 GMT Canada December new-housing price index. Daily chart mixed as MACD in bearish mode, but stochastics neutral, five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.2697 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2772 (Feb. 2 high), then 1.2799 (near-six-year high hit Jan. 30) and psychological 1.3000 line. Support at 1.2568 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2446 (Tuesday's low), then 1.2425 (Monday's low), 1.2384 (Friday's low), 1.2351 (Feb. 3 low) and 1.2310 (Jan. 22 low).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate after hitting three-week high 136.70 this morning. Undermined by uncertainty over outcome of Greece-EU debt talks; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY downside limited by buoyant USD/JPY undertone; demand from Japan importers. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 136.70 (this morning high); breach would expose upside to 137.31 (Jan. 22 high), then 137.64 (Jan. 20 high) and 138.78-138.88 band (Jan. 15 high-Jan. 14 high). Support at 135.04 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 134.05 (Tuesday's low), then 133.67 (Monday's low), 132.55 (Feb. 4 low), 132.40 (Feb. 3 low) and 132.00 (Feb. 2 low).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate after hitting near-seven-year low 0.7377 Wednesday. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling; but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels. Support at 0.7377 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7340 (Jan. 2, 2008 low), then 0.7087 (Dec. 3, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7459 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.7491 (Friday's high), then 0.7510 (Feb. 5 high), 0.7574 (Feb. 4 high), 0.7591 (Feb. 3 high) and 0.7677 (Jan. 22 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 11, 2015 19:06 ET (00:06 GMT)
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