USD Bullish Vs Most Major Currencies This Week -- Charting Forex

 
   By Jerry Tan 
 

        The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
        USD/JPY
        1st support - 118.62 (minor)
        1st resistance - 120.48 (moderate)
        2nd support - 118.30 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 120.82 (minor)
        USD/JPY (last 118.83) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing. Resistance is at the Feb. 11 reaction high of 120.48. A breach would target the 120.74-120.82 band, marked by the Jan. 2 high and the Dec. 23 high. An extension of the rise would target 121.86--the seven-year high hit on Dec. 8; and then the July 9, 2007 high of 123.66. Support is at Wednesday's low of 118.62. A breach would temper the positive near-term outlook, exposing the downside to the Feb. 20 low of 118.30, and then to the Feb. 11 low of 118.11. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 5 low of 117.02, and then the Feb. 2 reaction low of 116.64 which is currently near the 100-day moving average. USD/JPY is likely to consolidate with risks skewed to the upside in the weeks ahead as the five- and 15-week moving averages are advancing. A rise above 121.86 would expose the upside to the June 22, 2007 swing high of 124.16, and then to the Dec. 5, 2002 reaction high of 125.70.
        EUR/USD
        1st support - 1.1098 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 1.1389 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.1000 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.1450 (moderate)
        EUR/USD (last 1.1173) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the five-day moving average is below the 15-day moving average and declining. Support is at 1.1098, the 11-year low hit Jan. 26. A breach would expose the downside to the psychological 1.1000 line. An extension of the fall would target the Sept. 3, 2003 reaction low of 1.0760; and then the March 21, 2003 reaction low of 1.0498. Resistance is at Wednesday's high of 1.1389. A breach would temper the negative near-term outlook, targeting the Feb. 19 high of 1.1450, and then the Feb. 5 high of 1.1499. An extension of the rise would target the Feb. 3 reaction high of 1.1534, and then the Jan. 21 reaction high of 1.1680. The EUR/USD medium-term outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining, while the weekly slow stochastic measure is staying suppressed at oversold levels. A drop below the 1.1098 support would target 1.0760, and then the psychological 1.0000 line in the weeks ahead.
        AUD/USD
        1st support - 0.7736 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.7912 (moderate)
        2nd support - 0.7641 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.7976 (minor)
        AUD/USD (last 0.7774) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Thursday's high of 0.7912. The five- and 15-day moving averages are meandering sideways, but the slow stochastic measure is turning downward from overbought levels. Support is at Tuesday's low of 0.7736. A breach would expose the downside to the Feb. 12 low of 0.7641; and then to 0.7623--the five-and-a-half year low hit Feb. 3. An extension of the fall would target the May 18, 2009 low of 0.7449, and then the psychological 0.7000 line. But a rise above Thursday's high of 0.7912-- near the downtrend resistance line that runs from the Sept. 5 high of 0.9401--would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the 55-day moving average, now at 0.7976, and then the Jan. 28 reaction high of 0.8025. An extension of the rise would target the Jan. 23 high of 0.8049, and then the Jan. 22 high of 0.8135. The AUD/USD medium-term outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. The currency pair may fall to the psychological 0.7000 line in the weeks ahead.
        NZD/USD
        1st support - 0.7420 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 0.7613 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7312 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 0.7709 (minor)
        NZD/USD (last 0.7525) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 0.7613. A breach would expose the upside to the Jan. 21 high of 0.7709, which is currently near the 100-day moving average. An extension of the rise would target the Jan. 19 high of 0.7808, and then the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.7890. Support is at Tuesday's reaction low of 0.7420. A breach would temper the positive near-term outlook, exposing the downside to the Feb. 12 reaction low of 0.7312; and then to 0.7174, the four-year low hit Feb. 3. An extension of the fall would target the March 17, 2011 reaction low of 0.7113, and then the psychological 0.7000 line, followed by the Aug. 25, 2010 low of 0.6944. The medium-term NZD/USD outlook is consolidative as the 15-week moving average is declining, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is rising from oversold levels. The currency pair may trade sideways between 0.7174 and 0.7890 in the weeks ahead. A drop below the 0.7174 support would turn the medium-term outlook negative, exposing the downside to the psychological 0.7000 line; and then to the May 25, 2010 reaction low of 0.6559.
        GBP/USD
        1st support - 1.5314 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 1.5552 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.5195 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.5619 (minor)
        GBP/USD (last 1.5399) likely to consolidate with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Thursday's high of 1.5552. The five-day moving average is turning downward above the advancing 15-day moving average, while the slow stochastic measure is falling from overbought levels. Support is at the 1.5329-1.5314 band, marked by the Feb. 23 low and the Feb. 17 low. A drop below 1.5314 would target the Feb. 10 reaction low of 1.5195, and then the Feb. 4 low of 1.5135. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 3 reaction low of 1.4986, and then 1.4948--the one-and-a-half year low hit Jan. 23--followed by the July 9, 2013 swing low of 1.4812. But a rise above Thursday's high of 1.5552, which is currently near the 100-day moving average, would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the Dec. 31 high of 1.5619. An extension of the rise would target the Dec. 19 high of 1.5682, and then the Dec. 16 reaction high of 1.5785, followed by the Nov. 27 reaction high of 1.5825. The medium-term GBP/USD outlook is consolidative as the 15-week moving average is declining, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is rising from oversold levels. The currency pair may trade sideways between 1.4948 and 1.5825 in the weeks ahead. A drop below the 1.4948 support would turn the medium-term outlook negative, exposing the downside to 1.4812, and then to the May 20, 2010 swing low of 1.4230.
        USD/CHF
        1st support - 0.9444 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.9562 (moderate)
        2nd support - 0.9369 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.0000 (minor)
        USD/CHF (last 0.9554) likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing. Resistance is at 0.9562--the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the Jan. 14 high of 1.0240 to the Jan. 15 low of 0.7360. A rise above 0.9562 would expose the upside to the psychological 1.0000 line, and then to the Jan. 14 swing high of 1.0240. Support is at Thursday's low of 0.9444. A breach would temper the positive near-term outlook, exposing the downside to the Feb. 20 low of 0.9369, and then to the 200-day moving average, now at 0.9341. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 16 low of 0.9277, and then the Feb. 9 low of 0.9193, followed by the Feb. 6 reaction low of 0.9169. The USD/CHF medium-term outlook is mixed as the weekly MACD indicator is bearish but the weekly slow stochastic measure is bullish. The currency pair may consolidate below the psychological 1.0000 line in the weeks ahead.
        USD/CAD
        1st support - 1.2351 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 1.2663 (moderate)
        2nd support - 1.2282 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.2697 (moderate)
        USD/CAD (last 1.2511) is likely to consolidate this week between the Feb. 3 low of 1.2351 and Tuesday's high of 1.2663 as the slow stochastic measure is neutral, while the five- and 15-day moving averages are meandering sideways. A rise above 1.2663 would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the Feb. 11 reaction high of 1.2697, and then 1.2799--the near-six-year high hit Jan. 30. An extension of the rise would target the psychological 1.3000 line, and then the March 9, 2009 swing high of 1.3063, followed by the Sept. 1, 2004 high of 1.3166. But a fall below 1.2351 would turn the near-term outlook negative, exposing the downside to 1.2282--the 23.6% Fibonacci correction of the 1.0161-1.2799 July 3-Jan. 30 advance; and then to the 55-day moving average, now at 1.2148. An extension of the fall would target 1.1963--the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level. The medium-term USD/CAD outlook is consolidative as the 15-week moving average is advancing, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is bearish at overbought levels. A rise above 1.2799 would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, exposing the upside to 1.3063; and then to the May 18, 2004 reaction high of 1.4001 in the weeks ahead.
        Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        March 01, 2015 22:12 ET (03:12 GMT)

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