(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate after hitting near-one-month low 119.22 Tuesday. Underpinned by improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.23 versus 96.93 early Tuesday) after higher-than-expected U.S. February core CPI of +0.2% on-month, +1.7% on-year (versus forecast +0.1% on-month, +1.6% on-year); surprise 7.8% increase in U.S. new home sales to 539,000 in February (versus forecast for 4.2% drop to 461,000); stronger-than-expected U.S. March flash manufacturing PMI of 55.3 (versus forecast 54.0). USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY upside limited by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.873% versus 1.915% late Monday); Japan exporter sales; flows to haven yen amid decreased risk tolerance (VIX fear gauge rose 1.57% to 13.62, S&P 500 closed 0.61% lower at 2,091.5 overnight) amid fresh signs of slowdown in China--HSBC China March flash manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected at 49.2 (versus forecast 50.6). Data and event focus: 2350 GMT Japan February services PPI; 1030 GMT Fed's Evans speaks in London; 1230 GMT U.S. February durable goods orders (forecast +0.2%). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 119.22 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 119.11 (Feb. 27 low, near 55-day moving average), then 118.80 (100-day moving average), 118.62 (Feb. 25 low), 118.30 (Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low). Resistance at 119.98 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 120.17 (Monday's low), then 121.20 (Friday's high), 121.41 (March 18 high), 121.53 (March 17 high) and 121.67 (March 12 high).
EUR/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by stronger USD sentiment; reduced investor risk appetite; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; lingering uncertainty over Greece. But euro sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected Markit flash Germany March manufacturing PMI of 52.4 (versus forecast 51.5), stronger-than-expected Markit flash eurozone March composite PMI of 54.1 (versus forecast 53.6). EUR/USD losses also tempered by euro demand on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0900 GMT Germany March Ifo business climate index (forecast 107.3). Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 1.0890 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0768 (Monday's low), then 1.0650 (Friday's low), 1.0613 (Thursday's low), 1.0580 (March 18 low) and 1.0551 (March 17 low). Resistance at 1.1029-1.1037 band (Tuesday's high-March 18 high); breach would expose upside to 1.1115 (March 5 high), then 1.1185 (March 4 high) and 1.1218 (March 3 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate in lower range after hitting near-two-month high 0.7937 Tuesday. Undermined by stronger USD sentiment; decreased investor risk appetite; weak HSBC China March flash manufacturing PMI data. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia RBA's financial stability review. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Support at 0.7836 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7761 (Monday's low), then 0.7608 (Thursday's low), 0.7588 (March 18 low), 0.7570 (March 12 low) and 0.7558 (near-six-year low hit March 11). Resistance at 0.7937 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8025 (Jan. 28 reaction high), then 0.8085 (100-day moving average) and 0.8233 (Jan. 21 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate in lower range after hitting two-month high 0.7695 Tuesday. Undermined by stronger USD sentiment; subdued investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses tempered by NZD-USD yield differential. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Support at 0.7611 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7546 (Monday's low), then 0.7359 (Thursday's low), 0.7273-0.7269 (March 18 low-March 12 low), 0.7182-0.7174 band (March 11 low-Feb. 3 low) and 0.7113 (March 17, 2011 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7695 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high), then 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high) and 0.7890 (Jan. 15 reaction high).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Sterling sentiment hurt by softer-than-expected U.K. February CPI of +0.3% on-month, 0.0% on-year (versus forecast +0.4% on-month, +0.2% on-year). GBP/USD also weighed by stronger USD sentiment; waning investor risk appetite; sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0930 GMT U.K. February BBA mortgage lending & approvals. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish, but MACD in bearish mode. Support at 1.4832 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 1.4720 (Friday's low), then 1.4685 (Thursday's low), 1.4632 (March 18 near-five-year low), 1.4344 (June 8, 2010 low), 1.4230 (May 20, 2010 swing low) and the psychological 1.4000 line. Resistance at 1.4983-1.4988 (Tuesday's high-Monday's high), then at 1.5008 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5147 (March 18 high, near 55-day moving average), then 1.5255 (March 6 high) and 1.5397 (March 3 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-week low 0.9530 Tuesday. Undermined by Swissie demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses tempered by stronger USD sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Data focus: 0700 GMT Switzerland February UBS consumption indicator. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.9530 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.9477 (55-day moving average), then 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low), 0.9415 (200-day moving average) and 0.9383 (Feb. 23 low). Resistance at 0.9694 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.9812 (Monday's high), then 0.9984 (Thursday's high), 1.0069 (March 18 high), 1.0091 (March 17 high), 1.0112 (March 13 high) and 1.0128 (March 12 high).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with risks skewed higher after hitting three-week low 1.2426 Tuesday. Supported by stronger USD sentiment; receding investor risk appetite. But USD/CAD gains tempered by buoyant oil prices (Nymex settled up six cents at $47.51/bbl Tuesday). Data focus: 1430 GMT EIA Weekly petroleum status report. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average. Resistance at 1.2546 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.2615 (Monday's high), then 1.2723 (Friday's high), 1.2757 (Thursday's high), 1.2834 (March 18 six-year high), the psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high). Support at 1.2426 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.2404 (March 4 low), then 1.2383 (Feb. 26 low), 1.2359-1.2351 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 3 low) and 1.2310 (Jan. 22 low).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting two-week high 131.52 Tuesday. Undermined by decreased investor risk appetite; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Support at 130.35 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 129.29 (Monday's low), then 128.72 (Friday's low), 128.37-128.27 band (Thursday's low-March 18 low), 128.11 (March 17 low) and 126.91 (20-month low hit March 13). Resistance at 131.52 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 131.67 (March 18 high), then 131.87 (March 10 high), 132.50 (March 6 high) and 133.58 (March 5 high).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting one-month high 0.7371 Tuesday. Cross supported by soft U.K. February CPI data. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving and advancing. Resistance at 0.7371 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7405 (Feb. 23 high, near 55-day moving average), then 0.7427 (Feb. 20 high) and 0.7443 (Feb. 17 high). Support at 0.7299 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 0.7225 (Monday's low), then 0.7211 (Friday's low), 0.7147 (Thursday's low), 0.7109 (March 17 low), 0.7090 (March 16 low) and 0.7031 (March 12 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2015 19:41 ET (23:41 GMT)
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Thanks for give comment.