(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--downtrend. USD/CNY is testing the top of the Bollinger downtrend channel - a key resistance level - at 6.2165 and could pivot higher if this level breaks. The possibility of a higher USD/CNY daily parity rate - due to a slight Friday gain in the U.S. dollar index - could be the driver for spot USD/CNY to rally. But if USD/CNY ends the day below the round-figure trading barrier of 6.2000, it would be under the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone and also inside the Bollinger downtrend channel, increasing the likelihood that the yuan will rally against the U.S. dollar in the days ahead. Speculative yuan demand could be on the rise as Russia, Australia and the Netherlands agreed to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank over the weekend, joining others such as the U.K., Italy, and France. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier and base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 6.1898 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.1800 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 6.2165 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 6.2200 (psychological support), before 6.2354 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
USD/TWD--downtrend. USD/TWD has been sinking lower within the daily Bollinger downtrend channel over the past week and is likely to continue doing so. The big target for the pair is the 31.000 round-figure trading barrier. The pair's bearish chart signal will remain in effect as long as the pair stays below 31.280 by Monday's close. The ICE U.S. dollar index appears to be firming up, which could support USD/TWD, but if the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury still remains below 2.00%, the greenback may struggle to rally much. The pricing of the benchmark 1-month nondeliverable forward contract versus that of the spot contract remains in discount - a sign of bearish pressure in the offshore market. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.110 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.280 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 31.440 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 31.470 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
USD/KRW--consolidation. USD/KRW opened Monday around its Friday close, still stuck in a consolidation zone of 1,101-1,114. The pair could take its lead from USD/JPY as the latter appears supportive and attempts to rebound off its Ichimoku Cloud support. The South Korea won typically has a correlation to the Japanese yen due to the South Korean central bank's stance of ensuring that the won stays relatively cheaper than the yen, for export competitiveness. If USD/KRW manages to rise above the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance at 1,114 the daily chart will appear slightly more bullish. The U.S. dollar may struggle to sustain its gains though, unless the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield crosses above 2.00%. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,101 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1,097 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 1,110 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,114 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 1,120 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--consolidation higher. USD/SGD is still supported by the entrance of the Bollinger downtrend channel, and could inch upwards as the U.S. dollar appears to be mounting a recovery against the majors. USD/SGD technically remains in a consolidation mode unless it breaks the 1.3676-1.3865 range demarcated by the respective entrances Bollinger downtrend and uptrend channels. USD/SGD is likely to remain supported on forecasts that Singapore's central bank might ease monetary policy at its April meeting - likely in the second week of April - after a fourth consecutive month of deflation in consumer prices. The form of easing might not be as drastic as re-centering the midpoint of the currency's regulated trading band - which would mean a revaluation - but could be in the form of a band-widening that would allow the Singapore dollar to weaken more than the MAS currently allows. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3700 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3676 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1.3581 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1.3770 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 1.3800 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3865 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/MYR--possible uptrend. USD/MYR may test the entrance to the daily Bollinger uptrend channel at 3.7060 as a mild bullish-USD bias forms across Asia Monday. If the pair ends the day above 3.7060 it could make its way to 3.7320 within the week. The overnight drop in crude oil prices could be a catalyst for a weaker ringgit - which would drive USD/MYR higher - but the subdued nature of the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note may counter bullish-USD sentiment. Unless the 10-year yield manages to rise above 2.00% again, sustained dollar strength may be unlikely. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.6800 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 3.6550 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 3.6500 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 3.7000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 3.7060 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.7320 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--consolidation. USD/THB is testing the topside of the consolidation range of 32.47-32.63 as a mild bullish-USD bias appears against the major currencies Monday. If the pair ends the day above 32.63 it would be above the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance line, suggesting a chance for a rally higher. However, it would then also be inside the Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone that spans 32.63-32.78 - which limits its near-term gains. USD/THB would need a stronger catalyst - such as a rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield above 2.00% - in order to gain more bullish momentum. Thailand releases it February industrial production data at 0700 GMT. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.47 (200-day moving average), then at 32.46 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 32.29 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 32.63 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance and daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance), before 32.78 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
USD/PHP--uptrend. USD/PHP keeps its bullish stance if it closes Monday above 44.73 and thus inside the Bollinger uptrend channel. The U.S. dollar index is up slightly due to signs of euro weakness returning, thus buoying most USD/Asia pairs. The peso has been weakening recently - due to broad U.S. dollar strength - despite the Philippine central bank assuring the market that the economy is on track and doesn't need monetary stimulus. Bangko Sentral ng Pilippinas maintained the key interest rate stable at 4.0% last Thursday, but added that inflation is low, allowing room for policy adjustment if needed in the future. Analysts think BSP will adjust rates only when the U.S. Federal Reserve does. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.73 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 44.56 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 44.50 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.80 (psychological resistance), then at 45.00 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and round-figure trading barrier).
USD/IDR--consolidation higher. USD/IDR continues to battle the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance line at 13,060 after just barely closing below it on Friday. The U.S. dollar index is inching higher due to mild euro weakness, which could provide a catalyst for USD/IDR to rally Monday. If the pair ends the day above the 20-day Bollinger mid line, it may keep climbing in the next few days toward the Bollinger uptrend channel that begins at 13,160. Traders may be watching the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note as it hovers just below 2.00% - implying muted expectations of a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the near future. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 12,970 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 12,860 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,060 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 13,160 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
March 29, 2015 20:56 ET (00:56 GMT)
USD/INR--uptrend. USD/INR may consolidate just above the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone as the U.S. dollar bobs higher against the majors Monday. The greenback has been choppy over the past two days, causing the USD/INR pair to flit in and out of the Bollinger uptrend channel. A daily close above 62.78 is needed to reactivate the bullish chart signal. The muted yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury - which slipped back under the psychological 2.00% mark on Friday - has been thwarting the dollar's attempt to rally recently. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 62.57 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 62.50 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 62.62 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 62.78 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 63.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 63.04 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 29, 2015 20:56 ET (00:56 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD/Asia Edges Higher But Momentum Lacking -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.