Dollar Biased Up Vs AUD, NZD, CAD This Week -- Charting Forex

 
   By Jerry Tan 
 

        The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
        USD/JPY
        1st support - 118.33 (minor)
        1st resistance - 119.98 (minor)
        2nd support - 118.11 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 120.17 (minor)
        USD/JPY (last 119.24) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Tuesday's high of 119.98. The five-day moving average is below the 15-day moving average and declining, but the daily slow stochastic measure is at oversold levels. Support is at Thursday's low of 118.33. A breach would target the Feb. 16 reaction low of 118.11. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 5 low of 117.02, and then the Feb. 2 reaction low of 116.65. But a rise above 119.98 would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the March 23 high of 120.17, and then the March 20 high of 121.20. An extension of the rise would target the March 12 high of 121.67, and then 122.04--the seven-and-a-half-year high hit March 10. The positive medium-term USD/JPY outlook is tempered as the weekly slow stochastic measure has turned bearish near overbought levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below 122.04. A breach of the 122.04 resistance would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, exposing the upside to the June 22, 2007 swing high of 124.16, and then to the Dec. 5, 2002 reaction high of 125.70.
        EUR/USD
        1st support - 1.0768 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.1052 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.0613 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.1115 (minor)
        EUR/USD (last 1.0878) is likely to consolidate this week as long as it stays between the March 23 low of 1.0768 and Thursday's high of 1.1052. The daily chart is mixed as the MACD indicator is bullish, but the slow stochastic measure is turning bearish near overbought levels. A fall below the 1.0768 support would tilt the near-term outlook negative, targeting the March 19 low of 1.0613; and then 1.0457--the 12-year low hit March 16. But a rise above the 1.1052 resistance would turn the near-term outlook positive, targeting the March 5 high of 1.1115; and then the 55-day moving average, now at 1.1184. An extension of the rise would target the Feb. 27 high of 1.1245, and then the Feb. 25 high of 1.1388. The negative medium-term EUR/USD outlook is tempered as the weekly slow stochastic measure has turned bullish at oversold levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays above the March 16 low of 1.0457. A breach of the 1.0457 support would reinstate the negative medium-term outlook, exposing the downside to the psychological 1.0000 line; and then to the Sept. 17, 2002 reaction low of 0.9601.
        AUD/USD
        1st support - 0.7608 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.7884 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7588 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.7904 (minor)
        AUD/USD (last 0.7722) is likely to trade in a lower range this week after completing a bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern on the weekly chart Friday, while the daily slow stochastic measure is falling from overbought levels. Support is at the March 19 low of 0.7608. A breach would target the March 18 low of 0.7588; and then 0.7558--the near-six-year low hit March 11. A drop below 0.7558 would expose the downside to the May 18, 2009 low of 0.7449, and then to the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 0.7884. A breach would target Wednesday's high of 0.7904, and then Tuesday's reaction high of 0.7937. An extension of the rise would target the Jan. 28 high of 0.8025; and then the 100-day moving average, now at 0.8100. The negative medium-term AUD/USD outlook is tempered as the weekly slow stochastic measure has turned bullish at oversold levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays above the March 11 low of 0.7558. A breach of the 0.7558 support would reinstate the negative medium-term outlook, exposing the downside to the psychological 0.7000 line; and then to the Feb. 2, 2009 reaction low of 0.6245.
        NZD/USD
        1st support - 0.7483 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.7663 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7369 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.7695 (moderate)
        NZD/USD (last 0.7537) is likely to trade in a lower range this week after completing a bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Support may be encountered at the 55-day moving average, now at 0.7483. A breach would expose the downside to the March 19 low of 0.7369, and then to the March 18 reaction low of 0.7273. An extension of the fall would target the 0.7182-0.7174 band, marked by the March 11 low and the Feb. 3 low; and then the March 17, 2011 reaction low of 0.7113; followed by the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 0.7663. A breach would target Tuesday's reaction high of 0.7695, and then the Jan. 21 high of 0.7709. An extension of the rise would target the Jan. 19 high of 0.7808, and then the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.7890. The medium-term NZD/USD outlook is tilting positive as both the weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are now bullish. The currency pair may target the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.7890 in the weeks ahead.
        GBP/USD
        1st support - 1.4794 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.4993 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.4685 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.5147 (moderate)
        GBP/USD (last 1.4865) is likely to consolidate this week as long as it stays between Friday's low of 1.4794 and Thursday's high of 1.4993. The daily chart is mixed as the five-day moving average is meandering sideways below the declining 15-day moving average. A fall below the 1.4794 support would tilt the near-term outlook negative, targeting the March 19 low of 1.4685, and then 1.4632--the near-five-year low hit March 18. An extension of the fall would target the June 8, 2010 low of 1.4344; and then the May 20, 2010 swing low of 1.4230. But a breach of the 1.4993 resistance would turn the near-term outlook positive, targeting the March 18 reaction high of 1.5147 which is currently near the 55-day moving average; and then the 100-day moving average, now at 1.5340. An extension of the rise would target the Feb. 26 reaction high of 1.5552, and then the Dec. 31 high of 1.5619. The medium-term GBP/USD outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. The currency pair may fall to the May 20, 2010 swing low of 1.4230, and then to the psychological 1.4000 line, followed by the Jan. 23, 2009 reaction low of 1.3498 in the weeks ahead. But a rise above the Feb. 26 reaction high of 1.5552 would temper the negative medium-term view.
        USD/CHF
        1st support - 0.9484 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.9694 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.9444 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.9812 (minor)
        USD/CHF (last 0.9618) is likely to consolidate this week as long as it stays above Thursday's low of 0.9484. The five-day moving average is below the 15-day moving average and declining, but the slow stochastic measure has turned bullish at oversold levels. Resistance is at Tuesday's high of 0.9694. A breach would expose the upside to the March 23 high of 0.9812, and then to the March 19 high of 0.9982. An extension of the rise would target the March 17 high of 1.0091, and then the March 12 reaction high of 1.0128. But a drop below the 0.9484 support would reinstate the negative near-term outlook, targeting the Feb. 26 low of 0.9444 which is currently near 55-day moving average; and then the 200-day moving average, now at 0.9425. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 23 low of 0.9383, and then the Feb. 16 low of 0.9277. The positive medium-term USD/CHF outlook is tempered as the weekly slow stochastic measure has turned bearish at overbought levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the March 12 reaction high of 1.0128. A rise above 1.0128 would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, targeting the Jan. 14 swing high of 1.0240, and then the psychological 1.1000 line.
        USD/CAD
        1st support - 1.2404 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.2757 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.2383 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.2834 (moderate)
        USD/CAD (last 1.2613) is likely to trade in a higher range this week after completing a bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Resistance is at the March 19 high of 1.2757. A breach would target 1.2834-- the six-year high hit March 18; and then the psychological 1.3000 line. An extension of the rise would target the March 9, 2009 swing high of 1.3063; and then the Sept. 1, 2004 high of 1.3166. Support is at 1.2406-1.2404, marked by Thursday's reaction low and the March 4 reaction low. A drop below 1.2404 would target the Feb. 26 reaction low of 1.2383; and then the 1.2359-1.2351 band, marked by the Feb. 17 low and the Feb. 3 low. An extension of the fall would target the 100-day moving average, now at 1.2047. The positive medium-term USD/CAD outlook is tempered as the weekly slow stochastic measure has turned bearish at overbought levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the March 18 high of 1.2834. A breach of the 1.2834 resistance would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, targeting the March 9, 2009 swing high of 1.3063; and then the May 18, 2004 reaction high of 1.4001.
        Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
        (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

        March 29, 2015 22:55 ET (02:55 GMT)

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        March 29, 2015 22:55 ET (02:55 GMT)

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