(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--uptrend. Spot USD/CNY may retreat from the 2.5-year high marked on Tuesday as the benchmark U.S. dollar index subsided overnight due to USD/JPY weakness. If the People's Bank of China sets the daily USD/CNY benchmark rate below Tuesday's 6.1543, spot USD/CNY is likely to come off toward the base of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel at 6.2631. The China services PMI data for February due at 0230 GMT could reaffirm the view that China's economy is in need of more stimulus measures. Over the weekend, data showed China's manufacturing sector shrank again, likely the prompt behind an unexpected interest rate cut by the central bank. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2631 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2532 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 6.2500 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 6.2800 (psychological resistance), then at 6.3000 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/TWD--downtrend. USD/TWD is triggering a couple of bearish chart signals as the pair slides into the daily Bollinger downtrend channel and tests the base of the Ichimoku Cloud support zone. A Wednesday close below 31.330 would confirm that the Cloud support has broken, paving the way for further downside. The U.S. dollar index subsided overnight, increasing the chance that USD/TWD will likewise drift lower. The price difference between the benchmark 1-month USD/TWD nondeliverable forward contract and the spot contract has dropped back to par from around 0.050, suggesting bearishness for the greenback in the largely speculative offshore market. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.330 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 31.220 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.370 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 31.440 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), before 31.510 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance).
USD/KRW--consolidation lower. USD/KRW has dropped to the daily Ichimoku Cloud support after weakness in lead indicator USD/JPY - which has dropped out of its Bollinger uptrend channel. The pair is now hovering around the Cloud support of 1,097 but may slip further to the entrance of the daily Bollinger downtrend channel at 1,091 as the U.S. dollar index weakened overnight. If USD/KRW fails to enter the downtrend channel the pair is likely to consolidate in this lower range for now. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,097 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 1,091 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,098 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1,105 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/SGD--uptrend. USD/SGD subsided overnight on the back of the U.S. dollar index slipping, but the daily Bollinger uptrend channel remains in effect - contingent on a Wednesday close above 1.3616 - so USD/SGD could still grind higher in the near term. The uptrend channel could lead the way to the round-figure trading barrier of 1.3700. Apart from growing bearishness for China's economic growth - which could affect Singapore's trade-reliant economy - the Singapore dollar is also under pressure from expectations of monetary policy easing in April when the Monetary Authority of Singapore meets. Deflation and slowing growth figures provide a rationale for the MAS to act on the currency's value. Singapore's February manufacturing PMI released Tuesday showed a sharp drop to 49.8 - implying contraction of the sector - from January's 50.5. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3616 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3600 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3570 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 1.3662 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3700 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3794 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/MYR--uptrend. USD/MYR continues to exhibit a bullish chart bias as long as it ends the day above 3.6260 and thus inside the daily Bollinger uptrend channel. The stabilization of crude oil prices may help the ringgit to avoid weakness for now, but the rising yield on U.S. 10-year Treasurys may be propping up the U.S. dollar. Positioning in USD/MYR remains slightly skewed toward long-USD positions and this may also crimp immediate gains for the pair. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.6260 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.6000 (round-figure trading barrier and 20-day Bollinger mid support), before 3.5730 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 3.6500 (psychological resistance), then at 3.6530 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.6800 (psychological resistance).
USD/THB--closed.
USD/PHP--downtrend. USD/PHP is likely to slide deeper into the daily Bollinger downtrend channel on the back of the benchmark U.S. dollar index's slip overnight. The daily chart suggests USD/PHP could soon break the 44.00 round-figure trading barrier - which might lead to a sharper move lower as long-USD positions capitulate. Last week's breach of the 200-day moving average support and entry in the downtrend channel are likely to encourage more bearish bets on the U.S. dollar. But acting against the negative chart pressure is the overnight rise of the benchmark U.S. dollar index to 2.12% from around 2.08% the previous day. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.01 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 44.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 43.90 (base of weekly Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.11 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 44.21 (200-day moving average resistance), before 44.30 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--uptrend. USD/IDR could retreat from its 16.5-year high of 12,995 chalked up Monday as the benchmark U.S. dollar index subsided overnight. The daily Bollinger uptrend channel will however remain in effect - keeping the pair on a bullish trajectory - as long as the pair closes Wednesday above 12,900. Weak Indonesia manufacturing PMI data for February released on Monday has been negative for the rupiah thus helping to prop up USD/IDR. The manufacturing index fell to a record low of 47.5 compared with 48.5 in January, suggesting the output dropped for a fifth consecutive month. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,900 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,790 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 12,680 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,000 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and round-figure trading barrier), before 13,200 (psychological resistance).
USD/INR--possible downtrend. USD/INR could reinstate its bearish chart bias if it ends Wednesday below 61.81 and thus inside the daily Bollinger downtrend channel. The dollar is broadly weaker in Asia due to the benchmark U.S. dollar index slipping overnight - mainly on USD/JPY's fall. Risk appetite for the rupee is mildly positive after India's budget announcement, though some analysts commented that the plans were less aggressive than hoped for, shying away from larger subsidy cuts or bigger infrastructure expenditure. India will release its services sector PMI data at 0500 GMT, which could follow the drop in the manufacturing PMI released Tuesday. India's manufacturing PMI for February fell to 51.2 from 52.9 the previous month, but importantly remained above the expansionary watermark of 50.0. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 61.81 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 61.61 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 61.50 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is likely at 62.00 (round-figure trading barrier and 20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 62.13 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), before 62.21 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@wsj.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 03, 2015 19:50 ET (00:50 GMT)
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Thanks for give comment.