Dollar Biased Up Vs Most Major FX This Week -- Charting Forex

 
   By Jerry Tan 
 

        The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
        USD/JPY
        1st support - 119.65 (minor)
        1st resistance - 120.74 (minor)
        2nd support - 118.71 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 121.20 (minor)
        USD/JPY (last 120.30) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the currency pair stays above Wednesday's low of 119.65. The five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and advancing. Meanwhile, the slow stochastic measure is bullish, but it is near overbought levels. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 120.74. A breach would target the March 20 high of 121.20. An extension of the rise would target the March 12 high of 121.67, and then 122.04--the seven-and-a-half-year high hit March 10. But a drop below 119.65 would temper the positive near-term outlook, targeting the April 3 reaction low of 118.71, and then the March 26 reaction low of 118.33. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 16 reaction low of 118.11, and then the Feb. 5 low of 117.02. USD/JPY is likely to consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as the currency pair stays below 122.04. The five-week moving average is above the flat 15-week moving average but declining. A breach of the 122.04 resistance would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, exposing the upside to the June 22, 2007 swing high of 124.16, and then to the Dec. 5, 2002 reaction high of 125.70.
        EUR/USD
        1st support - 1.0457 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 1.0712 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.0000 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 1.0888 (minor)
        EUR/USD (last 1.0597) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the daily MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish. Support is at the 1.0457--the 12-year low hit March 16. A breach would expose the downside with no significant support until the psychological 1.0000 line. Resistance may be encountered at 1.0712, the previous base set March 31. A breach would expose the upside to Wednesday's high of 1.0888, and then to the 1.1036-1.1052 band, marked by the April 6 high and the March 26 high which is currently near the 55-day moving average. The EUR/USD medium-term outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. A drop below 1.0457 would target the psychological 1.0000 line, and then the Sept. 17, 2002 reaction low of 0.9601 in the weeks ahead.
        AUD/USD
        1st support - 0.7574 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.7738 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7530 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 0.7884 (minor)
        AUD/USD (last 0.7605) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays between Tuesday's low of 0.7574 and Thursday's high of 0.7738. The five-day moving average is below the flat 15-day moving average but advancing. A drop below 0.7574 would be near-term negative, targeting 0.7530--the near-six-year low hit April 2. An extension of the fall would target the May 18, 2009 low of 0.7449--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 0.7000 line. But a rise above Thursday's high of 0.7738, which is currently near the 55-day moving average, would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the March 26 high of 0.7884, and then the March 24 reaction high of 0.7937. An extension of the rise would target the 100-day moving average, now at 0.7954, and then the Jan. 28 high of 0.8025. The AUD/USD medium-term outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. The currency pair may fall to the psychological 0.7000 line, and then to the Feb. 2, 2009 reaction low of 0.6245 in the weeks ahead. But a rise above the March 24 reaction high of 0.7937 would temper the negative medium-term view.
        NZD/USD
        1st support - 0.7390 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 0.7607 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7369 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.7630 (minor)
        NZD/USD (last 0.7487) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays between the April 1 reaction low of 0.7390 and the April 3 high of 0.7630. The daily chart is mixed with the slow stochastic measure at the neutral level. A drop below 0.7390 would target the March 19 low of 0.7369. An extension of the fall would target the March 18 reaction low of 0.7273, and then the 0.7182-0.7174 band, marked by the March 11 low and the Feb. 3 low. Resistance is at Wednesday's high of 0.7607, and then at the April 3 high of 0.7630. A rise above 0.7630 would target the March 24 reaction high of 0.7695, and then the Jan. 21 high of 0.7709. An extension of the rise would target the Jan. 19 high of 0.7808, and then the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.7890. The medium-term NZD/USD outlook is positive as the weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are now bullish, while the five-week moving average is rising above the 15-week moving average. The currency pair may rise to 0.7890 in the weeks ahead; a breach would target the Nov. 17 reaction high of 0.7974.
        GBP/USD
        1st support - 1.4585 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.4737 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.4344 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.4993 (moderate)
        GBP/USD (last 1.4625) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the daily MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish. Support is at 1.4585--the near-five-year low hit Friday. A breach would expose the downside to the June 8, 2010 low of 1.4344; and then to the May 20, 2010 swing low of 1.4230. An extension of the fall would target the psychological 1.4000 line. Resistance may be encountered at 1.4737, the previous base set April 1. A breach would expose the upside to the 1.4980-1.4993 band, marked by the April 6 high and the March 26 high. A rise above 1.4993 would target the 55-day moving average, now at 1.5081, and then the March 18 reaction high of 1.5147. The medium-term GBP/USD outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. A drop below the 1.4230 support would target the psychological 1.4000 line, and then the Jan. 23, 2009 reaction low of 1.3498 in the weeks ahead. But a rise above the Feb. 26 reaction high of 1.5552 would temper the negative medium-term view.
        USD/CHF
        1st support - 0.9592 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.9838 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.9568 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.9982 (minor)
        USD/CHF (last 0.9790) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the daily MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bullish. Resistance is at Friday's high of 0.9838. A breach would expose the upside to the March 19 high of 0.9982, and then to the March 17 high of 1.0091. An extension of the rise would target the March 12 reaction high of 1.0128. Support is at Wednesday's low of 0.9592 which is currently near the 100-day moving average. A breach would target the 55-day moving average, now at 0.9568, and then the April 3 reaction low of 0.9477 which is currently near the 200-day moving average. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 26 low of 0.9444, and then the Feb. 23 low of 0.9383. USD/CHF is likely to consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as the currency pair stays below the March 12 reaction high of 1.0128. The five-week moving average is above the flat 15-week moving average but turning downward. A rise above 1.0128 would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, targeting the Jan. 14 swing high of 1.0240, and then the psychological 1.1000 line.
        USD/CAD
        1st support - 1.2503 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.2667 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.2384 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 1.2783 (minor)
        USD/CAD (last 1.2605) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays below Friday's high of 1.2667. The daily chart is mixed as the slow stochastic measure is bullish, but the MACD indicator is bearish. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.2503. A breach would expose the downside to Wednesday's reaction low of 1.2384, and then to the 1.2359-1.2351 band, marked by the Feb. 17 low and the Feb. 3 low. An extension of the fall would target the 100-day moving average, now at 1.2173. But a rise above 1.2667 would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the March 31 reaction high of 1.2783, and then 1.2834--the six-year high hit March 18. An extension of the rise would target the psychological 1.3000 line, and then the March 9, 2009 swing high of 1.3063; followed by the Sept. 1, 2004 high of 1.3166. USD/CAD is likely to consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as the currency pair stays below 1.2834. The five-week moving average is meandering sideways above the advancing 15-week moving average. A breach of the 1.2834 resistance would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, targeting the March 9, 2009 swing high of 1.3063; and then the May 18, 2004 reaction high of 1.4001.
        Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        April 12, 2015 23:16 ET (03:16 GMT)

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