(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to range-trade. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 99.28 versus 98.97 early Friday) amid investors' confidence over U.S. economy's recovery and expectations for interest-rate increase in second half of 2015--Fed's Lacker reiterated Friday that he sees a strong case for the U.S. central bank to begin raising short-term rates this summer. USD/JPY also supported by reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid positive global risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 3.9% to 12.58; S&P 500 closed up 0.52% at 2,102.06 Friday); demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY upside limited by lower longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.953% versus 1.958% late Thursday); Japan exporter sales. Yen crosses vulnerable to China March trade data (trade surplus forecast at $43.8 billion; exports forecast at +10% on-year), imports forecast at -12% on-year). Other data: 2350 GMT Japan February orders received for machinery, Japan March money stock, Japan March Bank of Japan Monetary policy meeting minutes, Japan March corporate goods price index. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish in bullish mode, although inside-day-range pattern completed Friday. Support at 120.04 (Friday's low), then at 119.86 (Thursday's low); breach would target 119.65 (Wednesday's low), then 119.45 (Tuesday's low), 118.80-118.71 band (April 6 low-April 3 low), 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low) and 118.11 (Feb. 16 low). Resistance at 120.62 (Friday's high), then at 120.74 (Thursday's high); breach would target 121.20 (March 20 high), then 121.53 (March 17 high), 121.67 (March 12 high), 122.04 (7.5-year high hit March 10) and 123.66 (July 9, 2007 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-week low 1.0567 Friday. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; persistent concerns about Greece; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. But EUR/USD losses tempered by positive investor risk appetite. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 1.0567 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.0551 (March 17 low), then 1.0457 (12-year low hit March 16) and the psychological 1.0000 line. Resistance at 1.0635 (hourly chart), then at 1.0684 (Friday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 1.0788 (Thursday's high), then 1.0888 (Wednesday's high), 1.0955 (Tuesday's high), 1.1036 (April 6 high) and 1.1052 (March 26 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias as markets await China March trade data. AUD/USD undermined by positive dollar sentiment; soft iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $0.50 Friday to $47.30/ton). But AUD/USD losses tempered by positive investor risk appetite; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 0.7635-0.7626 band (Friday's low-Wednesday's low); breach would target 0.7574-0.7568 band (Tuesday's low-April 3 low), then 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2), 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low)--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7720 (Friday's high), then at 0.7738 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.7757 (March 30 high), then 0.7834 (March 27 high), 0.7884 (March 26 high) and 0.7904 (March 25 high).
NZD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; weak dairy prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses tempered by positive investor risk sentiment; NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart mixed as MACD in bullish mode, but stochastics neutral. Support at 0.7511 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.7481 (Wednesday's low), then 0.7422 (April 2 low), 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low) and 0.7359 (March 19 low). Resistance at 0.7598-0.7607 band (Friday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7621-0.7630 band (April 6 high-April 3 high), then 0.7663 (March 26 high), 0.7691-0.7695 (March 25 high-March 24 high) and 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-five-year low 1.4585 Friday. Sterling sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected U.K. February industrial production of +0.1% on-month, +0.1% on-year (versus forecast +0.3% on-month, +0.4% on-year) & manufacturing output of +0.4% on-month, +1.1% on-year (versus forecast +0.5% on-month, +1.4% on-year). GBP/USD also undermined by positive dollar sentiment; uncertainty ahead of next month's U.K. general election. But GBP/USD losses tempered by profit-taking on short-sterling positions. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.4585 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.4344 (June 8, 2010 low), then 1.4230 (May 20, 2010 swing low) and the psychological 1.4000 line. Resistance at 1.4667 (hourly chart), then at 1.4724 (Friday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 1.4885 (Thursday's high), then 1.4972-1.4980 band (Wednesday's high-April 6 high), 1.4993 (March 26 high), 1.5008 (March 19 high) and 1.5081 (55-day moving average).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high 0.9838 Friday. Supported by positive dollar sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains tempered by franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 0.9838 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9984 (March 19 high), then 1.0069 (March 18 high) and 1.0091 (March 17 high). Support at 0.9747 (Friday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 0.9657 (Thursday's low), then 0.9592 (Wednesday's low), 0.9553 (Tuesday's low), 0.9493 (April 6 low), 0.9477 (April 3 low) and 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low).
USD/CAD--to trade in lower range. Loonie sentiment boosted by surprise 28,700 increase in Canada March employment (versus forecast for zero net new positions) and lower-than-expected Canada March jobless rate of 6.8% (versus forecast 6.9%). USD/CAD also weighed by firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up 85 cents at $51.64/bbl Friday); positive investor risk appetite. But USD/CAD losses tempered by positive dollar sentiment. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 1.2503 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2384 (Wednesday's low), then 1.2359-1.2351 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 3 low) and 1.2173 (100-day moving average). Resistance at 1.2665 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.2709 (April 1 high), then 1.2783 (March 31 high) and 1.2834 (six-year high hit March 18).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting four-week low 127.22 Friday. Undermined by weak EUR/USD undertone; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by positive investor risk appetite; demand from Japan importers. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 127.22 (Friday's low); breach would target 126.91 (March 13 low), then 124.95 (June 13, 2013 reaction low) and 121.90 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 94.09-149.72 July 24, 2012-Dec. 8, 2014 advance). Resistance at 127.80 (hourly chart), then at 128.77 (Friday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 129.75 (Thursday's high), then 130.36 (Wednesday's high), 131.04 (Tuesday's high), 131.30 (April 6 high) and 131.41 (March 25 high).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate after hitting eight-day low 0.7221 Friday. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7221-0.7218 (Friday's low-March 31 low); breach would expose downside to 0.7147 (March 19 low), then 0.7109 (March 17 low), 0.7090 (March 16 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low) and 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line). Resistance at 0.7259 (Friday's high), then at 0.7277 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.7314 (Wednesday's high), then 0.7351 (Tuesday's high), 0.7379-0.7385 band (April 3 high-March 25 high), 0.7405 (Feb. 23 high) and 0.7427 (Feb. 20 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 12, 2015 19:49 ET (23:49 GMT)
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