EUR Rally to Struggle, GBP Recovering

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The recovery from Tuesday's low at 1.0713 is unlikely to damage the broader bear wave from the Mar. 26 significant bull trap high at 1.1052. EUR bears will remain in control while projected resistance at 1.0861 caps, and nearer resistance at 1.0810 and 1.0825 would have to be broken in order to open 1.0861. The 1.0713 low would become the focus of attention on a break below 1.0744, threatening further weakness towards support at 1.0683/88 on the Market Profile charts.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Recovers strongly from 119.42 during Wednesday's Asian session, to retrace the bear wave from Tuesday's 120.37 peak. USD bulls require a push into new session highs above 120.15 to re-open the 120.37 high, while threatening additional gains to 120.81. It would take a break below 119.57 to leave the 119.42 low vulnerable, and Monday's Market Profile chart highlights strong backup at 119.23/119.31.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Tuesday's strength completed a double-bottom base pattern on the 60-minute chart, indicating further gains. Resistance at 1.4875 is under threat, and a push higher would open the pattern's measured upside objective at 1.4932 that lies close to resistance at 1.4940. The 1.4754/1.4757 lows would only become vulnerable on a break below 1.4805 and 1.4775.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Resistance at 0.9761 has become a pivotal level, following Tuesday's cap. Technically, the bull wave from the Mar. 26 reaction low at 0.9491 has not yet met its minimum upside requirement target at 0.9761, and projected support at 0.9635 needs to hold in order to keep USD bulls in control of the near-term. Failure to keep 0.9635 intact would signal a return to the 0.9491 low. A push into new session highs above 0.9728 is required to bring 0.9761 resistance back into the picture.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Breached 0.7250 to the downside on Tuesday, to leave the Mar. 25 peak at 0.7385 as a pending bull failure. EUR bears now have the Mar. 19 higher low at 0.7154 as their next objective, although there is support at 0.7180 and 0.7205 to break through, in order to expose 0.7154. Resistance between 0.7265 and 0.7310 indicates limited scope for corrective gains.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The recovery from Wednesday's Asian session low at 128.56 is likely to struggle while resistance at 129.90 caps the upside. Tuesday's bearish outside day high at 130.25 carries the hallmark of a truncated bull failure, and a break below 128.85 would bring the 128.56 low back into the immediate picture. Furthermore, the broader bear wave from the Mar. 24 truncated bull failure high at 131.52 has a minimum downside objective at 127.78 to meet in the coming sessions, leaving the Mar. 13 reaction low at 126.91 vulnerable.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Pokes its nose to a new seven-week low at 1.0420 during Wednesday's Asian session, and more weakness is on the cards. It was last week's plunge to 1.0422 that upgraded the decline from the late February peak at 1.0811, indicating deeper weakness to the 1.0300 area. Recapturing ground above 1.0486 is required to provide respite, although resistance at 1.0508 and 1.0525 indicate limited scope for corrective gains.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Edges closer to the Mar. 11 near six-year low at 0.7560. The strong decline from the Mar. 24 peak at 0.7939 leaves medium-term AUD bears on the back foot, because an expanding triangle pattern has been developing on the daily chart since early February, which normally becomes a continuation pattern. Loss of 0.7560 would expose 0.7524, where the pattern's falling support line lies during Wednesday's session, then 0.7500. Corrective upside risk is hampered by resistance at 0.7683 and 0.7711.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        April 01, 2015 02:24 ET (06:24 GMT)

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