(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 98.06 versus 97.91 early Wednesday) after hawkish minutes of March FOMC meeting that showed "several" participants thought a June interest rate rise would be warranted, while "a couple" preferred to wait until 2016--although the minutes were deemed out of date given last week's extremely weak U.S. March non-farm payrolls data. USD/JPY also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.905% versus 1.893% late Tuesday); buying of yen crosses amid improved risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 5.41% to 13.98; S&P 500 closed up 0.27% at 2,081.9 overnight); demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 0500 GMT Bank of Japan April monthly report, 0600 GMT Japan March preliminary machine tool orders, 1230 GMT U.S. jobless claims in week ended April 4 (forecast +280,000), 1400 GMT U.S. February wholesale trade (forecast +0.2%). Daily chart mixed as MACD in bearish mode; but stochastics bullish, five-day moving average meandering sideways below declining 15-day moving average. Resistance at 120.35-120.45 band (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 121.20 (March 20 high), then 121.53 (March 17 high) and 121.67 (March 12 high). Support at 119.65 (Wednesday's low), then at 119.45 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 118.80-118.71 band (Monday's low-Friday's low), then 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low).
EUR/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; surprise 0.9% on-month drop in Germany February manufacturing orders (versus forecast +1.5%); bigger-than-expected 0.2% on-month drop in eurozone February retail sales (versus forecast -0.1%); persistent concerns about Greece; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. But EUR/USD losses tempered by improved investor risk appetite. Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany February trade balance (forecast EUR19.4 billion surplus), 0600 GMT Germany February industrial production index (forecast unchanged on-month). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics in bearish mode. Support at 1.0763 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 1.0750 (April 2 low), then 1.0718-1.0713 (April 1 low-March 31 low) and 1.0650 (March 20 low). Resistance at 1.0828 (hourly chart), then at 1.0888 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0955 (Tuesday's high), then 1.1036 (Monday's high), 1.1052 (March 26 high), 1.1115 (March 5 high) and 1.1185 (March 4 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting seven-day high 0.7727 Wednesday. Supported by better investor risk appetite; Reserve Bank of Australia's decision Tuesday not to cut interest rates. But AUD/USD gains tempered by positive dollar sentiment. Data focus: 0630 GMT Australia March official reserve assets. Daily chart tilting positive as stochastics rising from oversold levels; MACD staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average. Resistance at 0.7727 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7757 (March 30 high), then 0.7834 (March 27 high), 0.7884 (March 26 high) and 0.7904 (March 25 high). Support at 0.7626 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 0.7574-0.7568 band (Tuesday's low-Friday's low), then 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit Thursday), 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low)--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 0.7000 line.
NZD/USD--to range-trade. Supported by improved investor risk tolerance; NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD upside limited by positive dollar sentiment; weak dairy prices. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish, but MACD in bullish mode. Resistance at 0.7607 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7621-0.7630 band (Monday's high-Friday's high), then 0.7663 (March 26 high), 0.7691-0.7695 (March 25 high-March 24 high) and 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high). Support at 0.7514 (hourly chart), then at 0.7481 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7422 (April 2 low), then 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low) and 0.7359 (March 19 low).
GBP/USD--to consolidate as markets await 1100 GMT Bank of England interest rate announcement; BOE is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.5% and the size of its bond portfolio at GBP375 billion. GBP/USD supported by M&A news--Petroleum giant Royal Dutch Shell PLC agreed to buy BG Group PLC for GBP47 billion; improved investor risk sentiment; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD upside limited by positive dollar sentiment; uncertainty ahead of next month's U.K. general election. Other data: 0830 GMT U.K. February global goods trade balance (forecast GBP9.0 billion deficit). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics neutral. Resistance at 1.4972-1.4980 band (Wednesday's high-Monday's high), then at 1.4993 (March 26 high); breach would target 1.5008 (March 19 high), then 1.5099 (55-day moving average) and 1.5147 (March 18 high). Support at 1.4851 (hourly chart), then at 1.4798 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.4774 (April 2 low), then 1.4737 (April 1 reaction low), 1.4720 (March 20 low), 1.4685 (March 19 low) and 1.4632 (near-five-year low hit March 18).
USD/CHF--to trade in higher range. Supported by positive dollar sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But Swissie sentiment soothed by higher-than-expected Switzerland March CPI of +0.3% on-month, -0.9% on-year (versus forecast +0.2% on-month, -1.0% on-year). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.9678 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9743 (April 1 high), then 0.9760 (March 31 reaction high), 0.9812 (March 23 high) and 0.9984 (March 19 high). Support at 0.9592 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 0.9553 (Tuesday's low), then 0.9493 (Monday's low), 0.9477 (Friday's low), 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low) and 0.9383 (Feb. 23 low).
USD/CAD--to trade in higher range. Supported by positive dollar sentiment; weaker oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $3.56 at $50.42/bbl Wednesday). But USD/CAD gains tempered by improved investor risk appetite. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada February new-housing price index, 1230 GMT Canada February building permits (forecast +5.0% on-month). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling; but bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday, stochastics bullish near oversold levels. Resistance at 1.2558 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.2574 (Friday's high), then 1.2654 (April 2 high), 1.2709 (April 1 high), 1.2783 (March 31 high) and 1.2834 (six-year high hit March 18). Support at 1.2451 (hourly chart), then at 1.2384-1.2383 (Wednesday's low-Feb. 26 low); breach would target 1.2359-1.2351 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 3 low), then 1.2146 (100-day moving average).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weak EUR/USD undertone; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by improved investor risk appetite; demand from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish. Support at 129.40 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 128.61 (April 2 low), then 128.39 (April 1 low) and 128.27 (March 18 low). Resistance at 129.88 (hourly chart), then at 130.36 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 131.04 (Tuesday's high), then 131.30 (Monday's high), 131.41 (March 25 high), 131.52 (March 24 high), 131.67 (March 18 high) and 131.87 (March 10 high).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting one-week low 0.7223 Wednesday. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics falling from overbought levels. Support at 0.7223-0.7218 (Wednesday's low-March 31 low); breach would expose downside to 0.7147 (March 19 low), then 0.7109 (March 17 low), 0.7090 (March 16 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low) and 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line). Resistance at 0.7314 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7351 (Tuesday's high), then 0.7379-0.7385 band (Friday's high-March 25 high), 0.7405 (Feb. 23 high), 0.7427 (Feb. 20 high) and 0.7443 (Feb. 17 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 08, 2015 19:38 ET (23:38 GMT)
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